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The Occupation Ends

Posted: February 21, 2008 by John Persinos Filed under: Singapore Air Show Permalink

My colleagues and I have maintained a frenetic pace since landing here, cramming as many meetings and press conferences into our schedules as possible. We’ve stirred up more activity in Singapore than anyone since the Japanese overran this place in 1942.

This is my final blog posting. Tomorrow is “public day”, during which families come to gawk at the flight demonstrations and static displays of fearsome weaponry. (You can watch a free video of a Singapore Air Show 2008 flight demonstration, on the home page of Aviation Today. The aircraft in the video comprise the aerobatic “Roulettes” out of Australia.) As one aerospace executive put it to me, sotto voce during lunch in his company’s chalet: “I loathe public day. I plan to be long gone by then. I don’t want to be around all of those sticky fingered little kids.”

As public day approaches and the show starts to wind down, I need to tie up a few loose ends in my blog, before jumping right into the hard news and interpretive analysis.

Karen Crabtree of Honeywell buttonholed me on the show floor to express her displeasure at being referred to as a “flack” in my first blog dispatch. To be sure, Karen is a thoroughly charming and intelligent woman who doesn’t deserve this pejorative term. Making matters worse, she asked me to clarify my earlier reporting on the RDR-4000. She pointed out to me that Singapore Airlines has been using the RDR-4000 on their 777s for some time; the airline’s adoption of this next-gen weather radar system was not announced at the show, as I had previously reported.

I am, as the Brits say, in sackcloth and ashes. I have badly maligned and misused the eminent Ms. Crabtree; I owe her dinner. I shall pick an establishment with a good view and a decent wine list.

Moving on, I’m gratified to see comments and questions from readers. One comment, from a commerical pilot and former Army Aviator, asks if there has been “any talk at the show in regards to alternative fuel aircraft”. The answer: you betcha.

It’s quite clear at the Singapore Air Show that the aviation industry is increasingly embracing “green” technology that reduces the carbon footprint and noise levels of aircraft. As Airbus CEO Tom Enders said in a press conference here, the growing concern over global warming and air pollutants threatens the industry’s unprecedented growth. Political pressure from governments around the world is mounting for aviation to substantially reduce its greenhouse gas emissions as well as its noise levels. “The answer is not more regulations, but better technology,” Enders told the assembled journalists.

While I am always skeptical of any industry’s ability to police itself, it seems that the aviation industry’s commitment to eco-friendly technology is genuine.

John Leahy, COO, customers, Airbus, also pointed out that earlier this month, the company tested Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) fuels on an A380. The test was the first by a commercial aircraft using this alternative to conventional jet fuel. GTL plants use natural gas, rather than crude oil, to make a fuel that contains virtually no polluting sulphur.

Boeing also is forging ahead with basic research in this area. One alternative source that the company is investigating is algae, which can be processed to produce fuel.

A more immediate possibility will be demonstrated this month by General Electric and Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic, but the two companies are keeping the exact nature of this fuel under wraps for now. Also stepping up to the plate to meet the green challenge are the major engine makers, including Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, GE, and Turbomeca. At the Singapore Air Show, Pratt & Whitney announced that it expects to triple this year the number of engines it washes under its EcoPower program, which involves a closed-loop, environmentally friendly process using atomized water.

Another reader asks what’s transpiring at the show, in terms of the C-27J Spartan transport, produced by Alenia Aeronautica, a subsidiary of Italian-based Finmeccanica. I attended a press conference on the aircraft, during which executives noted that Italy, Greece, Lithuania and Bulgaria have already ordered 35 Spartans. An America order worth up to 145 aircraft is in the works and Romania has selected the behemoth for its seven-aircraft requirement.

“Warfare has changed,” said Luciano Fava, vice president of sales for the company in Asia. “Logistics is the key word. And the number of peacekeeping missions is enormous. The demand for transport aircraft will increase even more. Most transport aircraft are either aging or already too old.”

You can always spot the executives from Italian OEMs, by the way. They’re typically the best-dressed, wearing expensive shoes and perfectly tailored shark-skin Euro suits. Their products also reflect the most eye-appealing designs. Despite the country’s many woes of the moment (which include the usual political chaos), Italy still does one thing very, very well: it provides the world with stylish design. Agusta’s helicopters are the best looking — even the company’s military UAVs look sleek and sporty, like flying versions of the Vespa. Finmeccanica’s chalets have a certain dolce vita flair to them, too, offering the best food and beverage. Remind me to book a “fact finding” tour to the company’s headquarters in Milan.

But I digress. The Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul sector was front-and-center in many of my meetings, especially since a considerable amount of MRO work is being outsourced to Asia. I chatted with Charles Elkins, senior marketing director, marketing and supplier services, at Aviall, which distributes parts for a wide variety of aircraft. We discussed concerns over the outsourcing of aircraft maintenance to foreign repair shops, and the related gaps in the FAA’s supervision of both safety and security practices.

Elkins pointed out that there’s a difference between delegating the MRO work, and simply abrogating all responsibility. He said the outsourcing of maintenance is an inevitable trend that won’t slow down and that outsourcing is not inherently unsafe. What makes the difference, he said, is whether “the work is properly supervised” and strict criteria are established and followed.

In the area of maintenance, Eurocopter and the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) announced at the show that they had inked an agreement to pursue a three-year collaborative research program addressing Condition-Based Maintenance. The goal is to enhance CBM for the Air Force’s AS332 Super Puma military helicopter fleet. CBM is complex, but here’s the Cliff Notes version: it deploys diagnostic and prognostic procedures, supported by advanced sensors and a health and usage monitoring system (HUMS), to take a more pro-active approach to maintenance.

There was plenty of activity in the business jet area. Analysts I spoke with at the show projected continued growth in bizjet deliveries through the remainder of the decade, with the emerging markets of Asia as the hottest region for the industry. Indeed, growth of business jet deliveries now surpasses the pace of narrow body commercial airliner deliveries.

The next 20 years will witness demand for 23,000 new corporate jet aircraft, from Very Light Jets through business jetliners. Demand is being propelled by the business community’s increasing embrace of business jets as a productivity tool. What’s more, increasingly popular fractional programs are lowering the cost of entry and ownership.

Embraer announced at the show orders for a total of 22 E-Jets, worth $750 million. Cessna announced that it delivered 160 new aircraft in Asia last year, an increase of more than 35 percent compared to 2006. Meanwhile, Bombardier’s executives were busy defending its Q400 as “the world’s most technologically advanced turboprop”. The Q400 has garnered unwelcome scrutiny lately, after a series of landing gear failures in late 2007.

Well, that’s it for me. It occurs to me that Singapore’s swank hotels and shopping districts, spruced up and spit-polished during air show week, make this country seem like a yuppie version of Vietnam. If I extended my stay, I wonder what I would find, if I lifted the painted veil and investigated more remote areas that are far from the tourist centers.

On second thought, it’s time for me to pack my bags and depart this country, before I get into trouble.

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Forward, march…

Posted: February 20, 2008 by John Persinos Filed under: Singapore Air Show Permalink

Alarm clock rings, I awaken, shower, guzzle some rancid coffee, suit up, grab a cab to the show, shuffle through security, squeeze into press conferences, visit exhibitor booths and chalets, attend evening receptions and a client dinner, return to the hotel room, check email, type up my notes from the day, phone the spouse, crawl into bed. Next morning, alarm clock rings, I awaken, shower, guzzle some rancid coffee, suit up, grab a cab…

Welcome to air show life, which is roughly akin to the nightmarish deja vu depicted in the Bill Murray movie, “Groundhog Day”. Actually, to be more precise, the humidity and jostling crowds of the Singapore Air Show make this biennial event more like the Death March to Bataan.

However, at the end of the day, as I rifle through the chicken scratchings in my reporter’s notebook and prepare to extract the most salient information for this blog, I’m reminded that the effort is worth the sacrifice. (I know what you’re thinking: “Sacrifice? Yeah. Sure. Right. It must be tough, deciding whether to have the cool, crisp Pinot Grigio or the dry, earthy Shiraz with the duck confit in a corporate chalet.” Well, it’s a dirty job, but someone has to do it.)

Okay, enough preamble. Let’s get right to it. I started the morning with a walking tour of the static display area. (Better to view the outdoor static display before the sun rises too high.) Arranged for viewing under Singapore’s azure blue sky was the Fire Scout UAV; Global Hawk UAV; Hermes 450 UAV; Chinook; Lockheed F-16D Fighting Falcon; A380; the Eurocopter Dauphin; Bell 412; EC-135; the Alenia M346 trainer; the B-1B; the Apache attack helicopter; and a host of other aircraft.

The static display area’s composition reflects the importance of unmanned aerial vehicles in the world’s militaries, and by extension their increasing prevalence at international trade shows. Joe Schuster, director, business development, aerospace programs, Northrop Grumman Electronic Systems, spoke to me about his company’s Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) technology on unmanned and manned aircraft.

Schuster noted AESA’s innovative uses in the civilian sector, for fire fighting and other non-military endeavors. He also noted that Global Hawk recently flew its first civil emergency support sortie. “It flew three missions, ranging from 10 to 14 hours and collected more than 700 images to support firefighters and local authorities,” he said. “It displayed considerable versatility during the Southern California wildfires in late October.”

Picking up on that theme, I asked Schuster about the FAA’s growing scrutiny of UAV safety, as pilot-less aircraft are increasingly flown in civilian airspace. He noted that this may be a concern for UAVs that fly at lower altitudes, but it’s a moot point for the Global Hawk, because it flies as high as 60,000 feet.

Regardless, it’s worth noting that, while UAVs represent “transformational” technology and are adept tools for fighting terrorism, their capabilities are often oversold and their safety problems are all-to-frequently swept under the rug. The operational track records of some UAVs are gussied-up, with shortcomings and accidents underreported. (Was that a terrorist cell our surveillance detected, or an Afghan wedding party? Whoops. Too late.)

While still in a rotorcraft/UAV frame of mind, I swung by the Bell Helicopter booth to chat with Robert Fitzpatrick, Bell’s senior vice president of business development. Fitzpatrick said that the global rotorcraft market is worth $24 billion and it’s growing at an impressive 10 percent annual rate. He said that this market is 47 percent U.S. Department of Defense, 30 percent international military, and 23 percent commercial.

“However, the more important statistic is that North America and Europe are relatively mature markets in which replacement plays a key role, whereas the Asia Pacific market is growing and the need for rotorcraft is reaching a new plateau here,” he said. “We see the Asia Pacific region as being as large as both North America and Europe.”

Fitzpatrick added that a few years ago, the commercial rotorcraft market’s worldwide demand was 450 aircraft per year; today, that demand is hovering at around 800 aircraft per year. “We see demand more than doubling from 450 to about 900 aircraft per year, in the 2011 to 2012 timeframe,” he said.

Rotorcraft is a bullish market, to be sure, but Bell, Eurocopter, AgustaWestland, and the other helicopter OEMs weren’t the only ones crowing at Singapore. At its press briefing, Airbus announced that 2007 was another huge year for the European manufacturer, with deliveries of 453 aircraft — 19 more than in 2006 and 12 more than its arch-rival, Boeing. Overall, Airbus racked up a record 1,341 net orders worth $157.1 billion. Airbus’ end-of-year backlog reached a record 3,421 airplanes, the highest ever recorded for the aviation industry.

I asked Airbus CEO Tom Enders if his company had learned anything from Boeing’s production and supply chain woes, whereby snafus among outsourced suppliers and subcontractors had caused embarrassing production delays with the 787 Dreamliner.

“We’re learning from our own problems with the A380,” Enders told me, with disarming candor and humility. “I’m sure Boeing, for its part, took some lessons from the A380. Without going into specifics, let’s just say that these problems remind us that aircraft manufacturing is not a piece of cake. We are in close contact with our suppliers and we examine supply chain issues very carefully.”

One source at the show, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told me that union workers in Seattle are hoping that Boeing’s recent headaches with 787 suppliers will result in the company bringing much of the manufacturing work back to its central facilities, rather than farming it out and then assembling the pieces at headquarters.

Another source discounted that notion, however, adding: “The outsourcing of manufacturing — aircraft manufacturing in particular — is an inexorable trend. That’s not going to change. Boeing is just gonna get its act together and keep the system that it has in place.”

I always find the Airbus-Boeing rivalry amusing. A few years ago, conventional wisdom dictated that Airbus was eating Boeing’s lunch; the latter’s corruption scandals and executive oustings only reinforced the notion that the American-based company was on the skids. Then, Airbus encountered its own shocking production problems, resulting in the unceremonious sackings of its top people, while Boeing’s Dreamliner became the most successful new aircraft launch in history. Suddenly, the press was writing Airbus’ obit. But now, it’s Boeing turn to have egg on its face, as it encounters unexpected production problems with the 787.

The moral of the story? Beware of conventional wisdom. The press, lazy little weasles that they are, love to latch onto a glib narrative. The narrative gets regurgitated over and over again, until it becomes holy writ. Reporters need a convenient news peg on which they can hang a story. “Pack journalism” creates a false reality, or at best, a caricature of the truth. Moreover, the seesawing of Boeing and Airbus is a case study in how corporate fortune is fickle. Today’s hero can quickly become tomorrow’s goat.

Speaking of Boeing, the aerospace giant booked orders for 60 planes from two Indonesian airlines. The orders were announced at the beginning of the Singapore Air Show. Regardless, Airbus cruised into Singapore with an early lead in the 2008 orders race, with 238 jet orders by the end of January, compared to Boeing’s 65. Airbus projects that the Asia-Pacific region will have the largest demand for passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, surpassing both North America and Europe; Boeing projects that the region will need more than 8,300 new aircraft before 2026.

Dr. Dinesh Keskar, senior v.p., sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, pointed out that South Asian travel is posting significant travel growth. Nearly $11 billion in new airplane orders were placed in the region with Boeing last year.

For its part, Boeing boasted an industry record of 1,413 firm commercial plane orders for 2007, setting up a virtual tie with Airbus. “Our two companies represent a duopoly,” said John Leahy, COO, customers, Airbus, commenting on the photo-finish in 2007 orders.

Leahy bragged that AirAsia, the continent’s largest budget airline, will become the world’s largest A320 operator. In December, the carrier placed a firm order for 25 A320s, plus 25 options. AirAsia placed an initial A320 order for 60 aircraft in March 2005, with an additional 40-aircraft buy in 2006 and another 50 in January 2007.

The common, recurring theme at the Singapore Air Show was Asia’s hot growth streak. To be honest, this regional boosterism started to rankle after a while. Allow me to play the contrarian. This sort of double-digit growth is possible when wages and production costs are considerably lower than in the first world. However, as workers are lifted up by education and a rising standard of living, they become more demanding. In turn, these countries, especially the supercharged “Little Tigers” (Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore), start to lose their competitive advantage.

While listening to the dark-suited, well-coiffed aerospace executives extol the virtually limitless growth potential for their companies in Asia, I couldn’t help but think that one of these days, perhaps sooner rather than later, all of these Polyannish predictions would get washed away, like seedlings in a monsoon.

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The horror, the horror…

Posted: February 18, 2008 by John Persinos Filed under: Singapore Air Show Permalink

Singapore. I’m still in Singapore. After 21 hours on an airplane, your faithful correspondent finds himself in the fetid environs of Southeast Asia. I’m not navigating down a river to find the elusive Mr. Kurtz — rather, the heart of this darkness is six straight days of schlepping through yet another crowded aviation trade show.

The Singapore Air Show, hosted by this amazingly well-run island nation/city state, is a stamina-testing gauntlet, as is typical with most air shows, but in the case of Singapore’s venue, the ordeal is frankly worth the effort. This show, always important in the past, takes on particular importance in a global economy in which Asia remains a “hot spot” of aerospace growth.

As a journalist, I like to work the show floor immediately before — and after — a show. That’s when the various press flacks — um, sorry, I mean communications managers — are less harried and in a more relaxed mode. In other words, they let their hair down and tend to blurt out statements that they shouldn’t. So that’s why I’m here now, on “Media Day”, attending press conferences and interviewing folks in their booths, before the show gets a full head of steam. Amid the hammering of contractors’ hammers and the tearing open of shrink-wrapped pallets, you can glean the occasionally insightful remark.

For context, let’s begin with the essential stats. According to Mr. Jimmy Lau, managing director, Singapore Airshow and Events, the show this year is home to 800 exhibitor companies from 42 countries, slightly down from last year. He says that at least 30,000 trade attendees are expected, 15,000 from overseas, roughly on par with last year’s attendance. When I asked Mr. Lau to break down the defense-to-commercial ratio, he said that 55 percent of exhibitors represent the defense sector and 45 percent, the commercial.

Lau pointed out that a major factor driving growth in the Asian aerospace market is accelerating consolidation of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) work. “Asia is increasingly an MRO center and many OEMs have a presence here,” he said. “This region of the world can provide quick MRO turnaround times.” He noted that Rolls-Royce has forged an agreement with Singapore Airlines to supply the latest version of its Trent engine series for a new fleet of 20 Airbus A350 XWB twinjets. The business, involving Trent XWB engines, is worth $800 million.

When it was pointed out that the Singapore Air Show is unlikely to see the order quantity that was reported at the recent Dubai show, Lau retorted somewhat testily: “We’re not in a numbers game.”

Lau seemed to take particular umbrage when a reporter characterized the Singapore Air Show as an “also ran” when compared to the big air shows such as Paris and Farnborough. “I’d rather see a lot of activity and several smaller orders, rather than one big customer making a big announcement,” he said. “[Individual big orders] make for good reading, but they’re not significant when compared to overall activity.” That said, the earnest Mr. Lau seemed to contradict himself, when he proudly emphasized the fact that Singapore Airlines is the first operator to embrace the A380.

The salient point here at the Singapore Air Show is a basic matter of economics: this region is the key to aerospace’s continued prosperity. As the rest of the global economy skids into recession, aerospace is forecast to continue its winning streak, in large part because of sustained demand in Asia.

Ian Godden, spokesperson, Society of British Aerospace Companies, noted his country’s long history with this part of the world. “British companies are adept at globalization, but they also get their supply chain infrastucture correct for the future, and that’s difficult,” he said.

Indeed, the influence of Britain is abundantly manifest in this country, which secured its independence from the crown only as recently as 1965. (The large contingent of rumpled, ruddy-complexioned British journalists at this show is merely one example of the post-colonial detritus one can’t help but notice here.)

As Godden explained: “Supply chain management and offshore rationalization is a big deal for British executives.”

Godden also discussed the United Kingdom’s evolving jet fighter needs, as it seeks to replace its aging Tornado. In paricular, he asserted that the Hawk is the “best trainer” for its needs.

The Hawk is very much prevalent in the BAE System’s exhibition booth at the show. The BAE Hawk is an advanced jet trainer used by the Royal Air Force, and other air forces, as either a trainer or a cost-efficient combat aircraft. So far, nearly 1,000 Hawks have been sold to air forces around the world.

I collared Keith Jackson, corporate exhibitions manager at BAE, and pressed him about the Hawk. “Yes, the Hawk is the main attraction for us at this show,” Jackson said. “We’re trying to emphasize the tri-service capability of BAE. We’re not just airplanes; we’re also land and sea.”

BAE also is drawing attention to its Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), specifically the Herti surveillane aircraft, which is on static display here. Prominent in the BAE booth is a mock-up and video demonstration of the company’s Talisman aircraft, an unmanned mini-sub. Reflecting the growing importance of unmanned surveillance aircraft as an anti-terrorism tool, a host of futuristic UAVs are parked outside on the tarmac of the Changi Airport Cargo Complex that is the location of the show.

Karen Crabtree, media relations manager, Honeywell, told me that the Singapore Air Show is a must for Honeywell, largely because of the region’s growth, especially in niche markets that are in the company’s sights, such as next-generation weather systems.

Crabtree underscored a big Asian win for Honeywell: the company was selected by Singapore Airlines to provide next-gen weather radar for the airline’s 19 new Boeing 777-300ERs. “We’re really highlighting the RDR-4000 at this show,” she said, sweeping her hand toward a mock-up display of the product.

“The RDR is available right now for air transport aircraft, but next year it will be available for the business jet market,” Crabtree revealed.

The Honeywell RDR-4000 Next Gen windshear/weather radar system continuously scans the aircraft’s horizon at ever-adjusting tilt angles to form a three-dimensional digital image of weather and terrain ahead. The system provides real-time analysis of weather hazards predicated on the aircraft’s flight path. To eliminate ground clutter, the RDR-4000 features an internal terrain database, adapted from Honeywell’s Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System (EGPWS).

“There’s tremendous growth in the Asian region that’s fueling the aerospace business,” Crabtree said, adding that the overall global recession “isn’t an issue for us.” She added: “We got a lot of airline wins this year and we’re touting them in Singapore.”

To be sure, when they’re not complaining about jet lag (”The flight over here from the UK was a nightmare,” commented BAE’s Jackson), the exhibitors at this show expressed bullishness about the aviation market in general and the prospects for their own companies in particular.

Notably, Bell Helicopter reiterated at a press conference its bullishness for 2008, as the helicopter industry continues to soar on phenomenal, unprecedented growth that shows no signs of slowing. The company noted that 2007 was a good year, with 365 total orders taken. Bell’s backlog now stands at 3.8 billion, a 28 percent increase over 2006.

Okay, my caffeine is starting to wear off. That’s enough reportage for today. Look for future dispatches of my Singapore Air Show blog, the rest of this week. I’m alternating blog duties with my esteemed colleague, Bill Carey, editor-in-chief of Avionics magazine. Today it was my duty to report, write and post this blog; tomorrow, it will fall to Bill, who’s also here covering the show. I’ll be back, the day after Bill has taken his turn.

Please feel free to post your comments on anything I’ve written here. Whether it’s in the form of brickbats or bouquets, I’m always glad to receive candid reader feedback. In the meantime, I remain your intrepid eyes and ears in Southeast Asia, until the authorities confiscate my passport — or until the hotel bar closes out my tab.

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