The Paris Air Show now opens its doors to the general public, until June 21. The dealmaking has officially concluded; the order books are closed.

The upshot of this biennial show: a shockingly small number of big sales, with airlines too worried by recession and too deeply in the red to pony up billions of dollars for new aircraft.

The final tally: European manufacturer Airbus announced only three major orders worth a total of $US6 billion. Its rival Boeing fared even worse: it scored two planes, for $US153 million.

Here’s some perspective: During the 2007 Paris Air Show, Airbus and Boeing won 800 orders worth more than $US100 billion.

This weekend, hordes of tourists will wander the airfield, gawking at flying demonstrations and aircraft on display. When kids clutching ice cream cones start fingering the static displays with their sticky paws, that’s when guys like me make a beeline for home.

Now that the show is mercifully over, what does it all mean for the aviation industry? The scant amount of orders in Paris was preceded by disturbing news that still casts a long shadow: the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projected 2.06 billion passengers in 2009, an 8 percent decline compared with 2008, causing the world’s airlines to lose $US9 billion, nearly double the losses that IATA estimated three months ago.

A forthcoming Aviation Today webinar will address many of the questions that the Paris Air Show didn’t answer. It’s scheduled for June 29 and features renowned analyst Paul Leighton as a key speaker. For more information, click here.

In the meantime, I’m flying back to the States, where the bathtubs actually have shower curtains and people still remember the recipe for making ice cubes.

Where have I been?

Out of my brain on the five fifteen

Out of my brain on a train.

Out of my brain…on a train!

My apologies to The Who, but those lyrics popped into my head yesterday, while being jostled in a jammed commuter train by several loudly pontificating French aerospace executives. I happen to admire French history and culture, but let’s face it: Frenchmen can be maddeningly arrogant.

One longtime resident of France who is unfailingly charming is Giovanni de Briganti, our man in Paris. Giovanni is an analyst, publisher and editor, specializing in aviation. He is particularly knowledgeable about defense, a sector in which he is well-connected. He’s also of Italian ancestry, which accounts for his Mediterranean sense of irony.

Giovanni previously worked as an editor for Defense News, Armed Forces Journal and various European defense publications, including two that he founded. He has been covering European issues for Rotor & Wing magazine since the mid-1980s.

This week, my wife Carole and I had dinner in Paris with Giovanni. He is fluent in several languages, including French and Italian, which made him of invaluable assistance in choosing the right wine. In fact, on the masthead of Rotor & Wing, I will change his title to: sommelier.

In my discussions with him, he took issue with the pessimists who have been denigrating “the mood” of the Paris Air Show.

“I actually think the show has been rather upbeat,” he told me. “Considering the dire shape of the world economy, the show reflected some optimism. For example, Airbus has orders that it can point to.”

To be sure, Airbus has fared much better than Boeing. Boeing finally racked up an order on the third day of the Paris Air Show, but its $153 million order Wednesday for two single-aisle planes was puny compared to the $6.25 billion already put on the board by its European rival Airbus.

That said, Airbus’ order book at the show has been paltry compared to sales in the past. To date, Airbus is ahead in the number of net orders for 2009, putting it in the Number One position for the second year in a row. The top spot tends to seesaw between the two giant OEMs. Airbus shot ahead of Boeing in 1999 in the competition for new plane orders; Boeing regained the top spot two years ago, only to relinquish it again in 2008.

Boeing collected zero net orders in the first five months of the year; Airbus had 11 net orders. That compares with a combined 884 agreements in the same period a year ago.

Airbus expects to make 480 deliveries in 2009, only three less than 2008, a record year. Boeing plans a roughly equal number, resuming a growth trend that was in place before a bitter machinists’ strike dampened 2008 deliveries to 375.

The picture for both airframers gets very murky for 2010.

Paul Leighton, editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value News, a publication produced by Aviation Today, admitted that the show has been muted, but added: “That’s to be expected given the shape of the current economy. There is concern here that we won’t see an early improvement in the market. But there are bright spots this week, such as orders from Middle Eastern carriers.”

He pointed out that, even though rising oil prices hurt the profitability of airlines and hence their ability to procure airplanes, higher oil prices paradoxically help the industry as well, because the Middle Eastern sheikdoms recycle their vast amount of petrodollars into new aircraft purchases.

The Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia echoed de Briganti’s sanguine outlook about the show and countered the negative press that has dogged Boeing in Paris.

“The propensity to announce orders at an air show from relatively marginal customers is not a determinant of competitiveness,” he said. “You will have a very hard time finding a market forecaster or equity analyst who drastically changes his or her numbers on the basis of what has taken place this week. To put it another way, business is one thing, circuses are another.”

As for me, this circus has come to a conclusion. I’m grabbing some coffee and my passport and rushing to the airport.

My favorite philosopher, Albert Camus, wrote: “Humility helped me to triumph.” That’s a fitting denouement to our blog. As this show ends, we are forced to admit that, in trying to divine the direction of aviation, most analysts and journalists actually have very limited powers of prediction. Unknown events, occurring long after the commotion of the Paris Air Show has ended, will influence our industry in the months ahead.

The “pack mentality” often encountered at these shows can stifle the sort of innovative thinking we’ll all need to get through today’s economic crisis. As we look for potential threats to our sector’s prosperity, perhaps hubris is the real enemy.

You feel a certain lightness in your step, a certain joie de vivre, as you near the end of your tour at the Paris Air Show. Maybe it’s the onset of delirium after several days of sleep deprivation, food on the fly and pounding the pavement in sun and rain. And this after being held in a stress position for seven hours in US Airways economy class.

This is my final post from Le Bourget. For an epilogue tomorrow, I will leave you in the very capable hands of our publisher, John Persinos. For this occasion, I’d like to take a positive tack. Despite the economy, the no-shows and the reduced footprints at the air show, the industry is resilient and forward-looking. That’s the spirit I’d like to capture.

The Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program, which like NextGen in the United States aims to transform the current air-traffic control system, is in the development phase. Earlier this month, the SESAR Joint Undertaking, the organization founded by Eurocontrol and the European Commission to manage this middle phase, signed contracts worth 1.9 billion euros with 15 industry partners, including Thales, Honeywell, air navigation service providers, airports, airframers and ground equipment suppliers.

“Through this Single Sky legislation, we now have the means to ensure that a specific technology can be implemented in all countries in Europe. This is an extremely powerful tool,” said Patrick Ky, SESAR JU executive director, during a press briefing today at the Thales chalet. “We are starting the program now. We have seven years to perform something. We have seven years to prove that we can change our field.”

Ky said the industry participation in SESAR eventually will be expanded to 20 or more partners. In July, the JU plans to sign contracts involving a dozen airlines.

GE Aviation is supplying its SDS-6000 large area display suite for Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 Classics. Certification and first installations of the suite are planned for 2011. The company was exhibiting an integrated cockpit mockup with the new displays at its stand at Le Bourget. My thanks to software engineer Simon Edwards, who explains the cockpit layout in the video below.

The 15.4-inch displays, in combination with GE’s flight management system, will support Southwest’s fleetwide implementation of Required Navigation Performance. (For more on RNP, register for the June 30 Avionics Magazine webinar, “Required Navigation Performance: Operations and Equipment,” at www.aviationtoday.com/webinars.) “They are absolutely a pioneer,” Dale H. Masbruch, GE Aviation vice president of Flight Management Systems, said of Southwest. “They’ve stepped out and said: this is going to work.”

Not everyone is coming away from this air show disappointed — not by a long shot. “Actually, it’s been very good,” said Ted Varner, EMS Satcom director of Government Sales. The company was featuring its eNfusion HSD-400 series, Inmarsat-based high-speed data terminal, among other products. “We have had not only domestic interest from the U.S. DoD and our partners, but also a lot of our military customers in France, Germany, etc., that have shown up in our booth,” Varner said. “It’s been a good show.” For more of my interview with Varner, see the video below.

David C. Adams, Curtiss Wright chief operating officer, said the company’s defense business is doing well, while commercial air-transport is flat and business aviation down, in part because of the demise of Eclipse Aviation. Curtiss Wright provides a broad base of aerospace components and subsystems, including position sensors, electromechanical actuators and embedded computers. “We pared back this year for obvious reasons,” Adams said of the company’s presence at Le Bourget. But, he added, “it’s been going pretty well. We’ve had a lot of meetings, as many as always. … Generally, the aerospace, defense side is holding up pretty well.”

I was perhaps most surprised by the air show analysis of Sean Bond, president of the BAE Systems Platform Solutions Business in Johnson City, N.Y. BAE products generating interest were the Q-HUD head-up display and Q-Sight helmet-mounted display, which use holographic waveguide technology. The company also was promoting its Remote Guardian System, a software-controlled, all-quadrant minigun fitted to the V-22 tiltrotor. The system will be installed on U.S. Marine Corps MV-22s and Air Force Special Operations Command CV-22s, providing 360-degree suppressive fire.

“This has been a tremendous air show,” Bond told me. “ … It’s possible that the attendance might be down, but the quality of the leadership that is here, whether they’re government leaders or industry leaders, has been phenomenal. From this air show, I can point to some real partnership opportunities that will enable top-line growth for my business but also great opportunities to deploy capability on existing platforms that will be getting upgrades on the commercial side to emerging platforms on the military and the commercial side. … I’ve said this to many people — this has been the busiest air show I have ever been a part of.”

Looking at my haggard, unshaven face in the mirror this morning, I tried to psychologically brace myself for another long march at the Paris Air Show. The look in my eyes reminded me of what the U.S. Marines in World War II called “the thousand-yard stare”.

At this point, I’d almost rather invade a heavily-fortified Japanese island than confront another crowded, smelly commuter train to Le Bourget. What do the French have against air conditioning and deodorant? And why are most European hotel rooms of such Lilliputian dimensions?

My colleague Giovanni de Briganti, the European-based columnist for our sister publication, Rotor & Wing magazine, put it to me this way: “We must have sinned in a previous life, to deserve another air show.”

My existential angst, however, is no match for the outright anger expressed by Qatar Airways CEO Al Baker, whose remarks at the Paris Air Show have made quite a stir. Referring to repeated delays with Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner passenger jet, Baker made impolitic remarks to the international press. “Unfortunately, Boeing is not run by commercial people,” he said. “Boeing is run by bean counters and lawyers. We have some serious issues with them, and if they do not play ball with us, they will be in for a serious surprise.”

Yikes! Qatar has an order for 60 Boeing 787s (30 firm and 30 options). He wouldn’t provide more specifics, but the gauntlet has been thrown down. If Boeing doesn’t solve its problems with the chronically delayed 787, Qatar could very well walk away from the deal. Boeing officials refused to comment.

Showing no compunction about piling on, Airbus CEO Thomas Enders at a separate press conference ridiculed the Boeing 787 as “probably the most subsidized airplane ever”. Curious remarks, coming from the head of a huge European company that sometimes resembles a state-sponsored jobs program. Pot…meet kettle.

Perhaps Enders was in a bad mood because of the heat that Airbus is taking at Le Bourget over the Air France disaster. He impatiently dismissed one reporter’s suggestion that the aircraft maker had been “timid” in its response to the June 1 crash of Air France flight 447, which broke up over the South Atlantic, killing all 228 aboard.

“We do not speculate about the reasons for the accident,” he said. “The investigating authority is not Airbus. The investigating authority is the [French] BEA. We offer support, but we do not speculate about the reasons. There is no possibility to know at this point why Air France 447 really came down.”

Airbus chief operating officer Francois Bregier chimed in: “All our aircraft are safe.”

Defending the safety of your aircraft is not exactly the sort of profile that a company covets at the Paris Air Show.

While Boeing and Airbus bicker, and attempt to cope with their respective problems, other OEMs are using the opportunity to engage in some broken field running.

Case in point: Bombardier’s protracted development program — up to 63 months and counting — for its 100- to 149-seat next-generation regional jet is starting to bear fruit. At first the target of considerable skepticism, the long-awaited CSeries appears to be very much a “go”.

Bombardier confirmed at the show that the airliner will indeed fly in 2012. That must be a relief for launch customer Lufthansa, which has a $2.8 billion order for 30 110-seat CS100 aircraft.

Not coincidentally, word surfaced here that the International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC), the world’s biggest aircraft lessor, is considering buying jets from planemakers other than Boeing and Airbus, for the first time in the company’s 36-year history. ILFC’s new strategic direction will be front and center during a forthcoming webinar sponsored by Aviation Today. For more information about this online event, click here.

If you connect the dots, a picture starts to emerge. As one analyst told me in the press room bar at Le Bourget, after he loosened up over a couple of beers that I kindly procured for him: “Many airlines would love to have an all-new, more fuel efficient narrowbody passenger jet but they might not be willing to wait for Airbus and Boeing to get their acts together.”

I will take credit for being the first journalist to arrive for the Thales cabin systems briefing at 8:30 this morning, and that despite the death of my watch battery Monday night. From now on, I will be adding six hours to the time displayed on my BlackBerry. I can’t accept the risk of reprogramming that essential device.

Thales in recent years has become a major player in in-flight entertainment (IFE), and with partner Diehl Aerospace is making “a significant strategic foray into the cabin side of the aircraft,” said Alan Pellegrini, Thales Avionics general manager of In-Flight Systems. It is a four-pronged foray that involves IFE, airborne connectivity, lighting (Diehl’s specialty) and the cabin fitting capacity gained when Diehl/Thales acquired the Airbus plant at Laupheim, near Stuttgart, in October 2008.

The renamed Diehl Aircabin venture at Laupheim currently is “fully loaded” with work on A380 cabin linings (sidewall and ceiling panels, door linings, wardrobes, etc.) and has started work on A350 cabin interior packages that came with the plant acquisition, said Walter Fleischmann of Diehl. The vision is to meld the four prongs into a full cabin integration offering. “There is a significant need in the supply chain for a cabin integrator,” Fleischmann said. “…There is no significant player in the market today that can provide electronic competencies in combination with the lining and lighting. It’s a unique situation” for Thales and Diehl.

In the meantime, Thales’s Irvine, Calif.-based IFE business continues to rack up orders, and claims 40 percent of the market for new IFE selections. In the last year, the company has received orders from British Airways for 40 widebody aircraft, including the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787; Qatar Airways, Japan Airlines and China Southern. Renewed orders have been placed by Korean Airlines, AirAsiaX and Etihad. “Thales has done pretty well,” said Pellegrini, “even considering the economic crisis.” The latest offering in its TopSeries product line is a digital, single-aisle system capable of on-demand audio and video, interactive games and Wi-Fi connectivity — all the things the traveling public has come to know and love.

No doubt some people view the wonderful world of avionics as a specialized niche or, worse, “esoteric.” Here, I must beg to disagree. As editor of Avionics Magazine, I’ve had to develop at least a passing knowledge of subjects ranging from IFE to electronic countermeasures, from synthetic vision to Sniper pods. I found myself shifting gears yet again today, traveling from the Thales chalet to the Sagem pavilion, where I was treated to lunch by Olivier Lapy, senior vice president of communications, and Press Officer Philippe Wodka-Gallien. My visit coincided with that of French Defense Minister Herve Morin, trailed by a retinue of suits, soldiers and photographers.

Before lunch, Philippe gave me a tour of the outdoor display area, where various aircraft and weaponry were arrayed in circular fashion around a Mirage F1 upgraded to the MF2000 standard with new electronics from Sagem and Thales. Operating through the Astrac joint venture, the companies currently are upgrading Mirage F1s operated by Morocco.

On display to one side were the snub-nosed, catapult-launched Sperwer Mk. II UAV and a new product offering — the Patroller long-endurance unmanned aerial system developed by Sagem and motorglider manufacturer Stemme, of Strausberg, Germany. A prototype Patroller first flew June 10 at the Kemijarvi test site in Finland. Equipped with the Euroflir 410 gyrostabilized optronic pod, and capable of carrying a pod-mounted synthetic aperture radar, the aircraft is targeted for the defense and homeland security markets. To the other side of the Mirage, laid out on the tarmac, where 125 kg, 250 kg and 500 kg versions of the modular AASM precision-guided munition, which share the same seeker. The 250 kg weapon has been deployed by the Dassault Rafale in Afghanistan. An impressive arsenal indeed.

The public aspect of this day (as opposed to being squirreled away in my hotel room) ended with a reception at the Canada chalet. The featured speaker was to have been Canadian Minister of Industry Tony Clement. But the Canadian government has decreed that no minister attend the Paris Air Show, according to Claude Lajeunesse, president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada.

Disappointed but undeterred, Lajeunesse noted that Canada hosts the world’s fourth largest aerospace industry, with $23.7 billion in annual sales. “We are extremely proud of our industry,” he said. “We have so many world leaders in our industry that we can celebrate that.”

The sun came out today over Le Bourget. Yesterday’s rain served as an apt metaphor for the cloudy prospects of the aviation industry. Today, I will seize on the pleasant weather as indicative of the rays of hope in our troubled business.

I spoke near the aircraft display area today with Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis with the Teal Group, a consultancy based in Fairfax, Virginia. The incisive and always witty Aboulafia put the air show into context; for a video of my interview with him, check out the “Video of the Day” box on Aviation Today’s home page.

A cornerstone of Richard’s argument: the aviation industry’s civilian sector is certainly in recession these days, as reflected by the meaningful lack of orders announced by Boeing and Airbus, but the world still spends huge amounts of money on defense. If nothing else, the Paris Air Show is, to use Aboulafia’s term, an “arms bazaar”.

This spring, when Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced his “reformist” 2010 military budget, he targeted super-expensive legacy programs such as the F-22 Raptor fighter jet for cutbacks, while at the same time boosting funds for UAVs. Gates said that the Pentagon would increase spending on “transformational” weaponry and electronics that target terrorists, including $2 billion more on UAV surveillance and reconnaissance equipment.

That figure would include funding for 50 new Predator drones, such as those that have fired missiles on militants who are honeycombed in the mountains of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The goal is to field enough Predator aircraft by 2011 to conduct 50 flights daily, a 127 percent increase over last year.

To be sure, Gates also wants to pull the plug on the new, absurdly over-budget $13 billion VH-71 presidential helicopter. However, regardless of whether the Republicans or the Democrats control the purse strings, UAVs and aviation electronics will continue to hoover-up big piles of dough.

The fact that this spending will fill the coffers of the companies exhibiting at the Paris Air Show is more than just a bright spot – it’s a lifesaver. The United States still accounts for 50 percent of the world’s military spending, and the 2010 military budget for the U.S., despite its shifting of priorities, still registers a roughly 6 percent spending increase over the previous budget. That hardly represents “lean times” for defense.

These themes all came together for me, during an Elbit Systems press conference that I attended today. Elbit is an Israel-based defense electronics company that specializes in UAVs, communications, and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance – all of the areas that Gates wants to emphasize.

Despite the claims of analysts of a more militaristic bent, who are reluctant to find anything worthwhile in the Obama administration, defense contractors will continue to do just fine, thank you. Just take a look at their stock valuations, which have held steady, regardless of the latest political and economic vicissitudes.

Gates’ predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld, paid lip service to military transformation, but he rarely followed through, preferring to leave big-ticket, Cold War type “white elephants” in place. With the rare exceptions of the Crusader howitzer and the ill-fated Comanche reconnaissance attack helicopter, expensive programs that represented anachronistic war goals rarely got canceled.

Joseph Ackerman, CEO of Elbit, told the assembled reporters that his company’s revenue has grown more than tenfold over the past decade; the company now claims a $5 billion backlog. Roughly 8 percent of Elbit’s revenue is plowed back into research and development, testimony to the company’s devotion to technological innovation.

Ackerman emphasized the company’s pioneering work in C4 ISR and UAVs. “Our customers are looking for force multipliers and for solutions,” he said. Elbit is highlighting at Paris its Hermes 90/450 UAV systems, which are light-weight, easily deployable and in great demand among military, paramilitary and homeland defense agencies around the world.

Another technology-intensive company that I visited today was AutoDesk, a true innovator in 2D and 3D design. I interviewed Ed Martin, industry manager, manufacturing solutions division, at AutoDesk.

One conspicuous aspect of this year’s Paris Air Show is the absence of business aviation, which got particularly clobbered by the global recession. As noted in a previous blog posting, Gulfstream and Cessna are not here. A little perspective is called for on this matter, though. Paris has never been a big venue for business and corporate aviation; the OEMs and their customers in this sector prefer more relevant venues such as EBACE in Geneva.

Ed Martin explained to me that, despite the recession in business aviation, his company’s products and services, notably its aircraft interior “digital prototyping”, are wildly popular with business aircraft OEMs. “It allows them to create innovative designs that simulate real-world conditions,” he said. Below is a video excerpt of my interview with him. Beneath my interview of Martin is my own 60-second summary of the show, for those impatient readers who like their news quick and condensed.

Housekeeping note: reader Paul Lombino submitted a comment, related to the Air France crash, asking why black boxes aren’t equipped with flotation devices. Actually, it’s very rare for officials to be unable to find a black box, which are made of titanium and super-hardened. They feature a homing beacon that transmits an ultrasonic ping that can be detected by sonar and underwater hydrophones. The signal carries to the surface from nearly 4 miles underwater for 30 days. In the case of the Air France disaster, the elusiveness of the black box only deepens the mystery.

Made it to 7:25 this morning before I felt the sweat trickling down the nape of my back on the crowded RER train to Le Bourget. It’s been raining here today, something I had not even considered in my meticulous preparations. But I completed the 20-minute trek from the train station to the airfield during a welcome pause in the precipitation. Still more good news: the wireless access in the press room fires up without complication, and features a very helpful landing page, “Paris Le Bourget LIVE,” with maps, the daily flight schedule and other information. It is from the press chalet that I begin this missive.

The dinner and presentation ceremony of the Aerospace Journalist of the Year Awards last night was a relatively subdued affair, and about half as large as the previous gathering at the 2008 Farnborough Airshow. The awards categories are normally sponsored, giving the underwriter an opportunity to roll a promotional video. But this year, five of the 14 categories had no corporate sponsorship. Several of the award winners — me not among them, unfortunately — spoke in their acceptance remarks of the doldrums facing both aerospace and the aerospace press. We the press are undergoing a perfect storm, if you will, of a bad economy and the inexorable transition to electronic media.

Sen. Daniel K. Inouye (D-Hawaii), President Barack Obama’s personal representative to the air show, offered some encouraging words for the industry today, which is encouragement itself coming from an administration perceived as indifferent to aviation. Inouye spoke at the official welcome ceremony and ribbon-cutting at the U.S. pavilion, as did Air Force Secretary Michael Donley. Ever alert to a political backlash, Inouye was compelled to explain the presence of the high-level delegation in Paris when important business beckons in Washington. “We’re here for one reason, to demonstrate to the aerospace industry that we support it, that it is an important part of our economy, and this segment must not fail,” said the decorated World War II combat veteran.

Several members of the Senate Appropriations Committee, which Inouye chairs, and Armed Services Committee also attended the ceremony, which nearly was drowned out by feedback from an errant sound system. Other speakers were Mark Pekala, Deputy Chief of Mission in the U.S. Embassy in Paris, and Tom Kallman, whose New Jersey firm organizes the U.S. pavilion. The United States is the largest national grouping at the air show.

Significantly, Inouye’s words were cited by Dorothy Reimold, FAA acting administrator for International Aviation, during a round-table discussion on global air-traffic control modernization that immediately followed the welcoming ceremony. The discussion was hosted by ITT Corp., which has been awarded the contract from FAA to build the ground infrastructure for Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). Panelists were asked by moderator and former FAA Administrator Marion Blakey, now president and CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, if government should step in to support operators in equipping for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), the name the U.S. uses to describe the future. (In Europe, it’s the Single European Sky ATM Research, or SESAR, program.) Reimold noted that Inouye had made “a very public commitment about the need for the aviation industry not to fail. What that says to me is there is a very large role for the government to play.”

A reporter questioned whether the U.S. approach of using dual links for ADS-B position reporting — the 978 MHz Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) for general aviation and 1090 MHz transponder for larger aircraft — presents a challenge for the rest of the world. John Kefaliotis, ITT vice president of Next Generation Transportation Systems, said UAT “facilitates lower-cost avionics” and provides capacity for Flight Information Services Broadcasts (FIS-B), which will not be carried by 1090 MHz. As to the issue of overloading the 1090 MHz band, Kris Ganase, L3 Communications-ACSS president, said his company is working on “ATC overlay” technology to triple the bandwidth of 1090.

The beauty of the Paris Air Show is that you can bid adieu to one such meeting and find yourself in the company of Russians at the Sukhoi and MiG briefing — assuming you successfully navigate the rabbit warren of staircases, foot paths and convention halls to the allotted location.

Speaking through an interpreter, Mikhail A. Pogosyan, director general of Sukhoi Holding, fielded questions on the new airframe on the block at Le Bourget: the Sukhoi Superjet 100, a development of Sukhoi and Italy’s Alenia Aeronautica. According to Pogosyan, there are 98 firm orders for the new regional jet, with 150 anticipated by year-end. Asked if he was “proud” the SuperJet had made it to Paris, Pogosyan said, “Certainly I am happy that we are sticking to the plan that we earlier declared, that we are stably moving forward. Several years ago we talked to you and there was no plane, now you see the airplane is here.”

The briefing broke up just in time to see the inaugural flight of the Superjet in the West, a milestone accomplished despite the swollen skies and intermittent rain.

It’s overcast at Le Bourget on this first day of the Paris Air Show — both literally and figuratively. A heavy rain the night before did little to remove the oppressive humidity, making the crowded Metro ride to the show even more enervating than usual. The mood here is hardly any brighter.

Already in my conversations with attendees and exhibitors, there’s a palpable downbeat quality to the show. Instead of displaying its long-delayed A400M military transport, Airbus instead finds itself in the unenviable position of addressing the deadly Air France flight 447 crash. It’s bad enough that the much-ballyhooed A400M has glaringly failed to meet its contractural obligations. Now, adding to Airbus’ woes, comes the loss of an A330-200, and all 228 people aboard, as it flew from Rio de Janeiro to Paris.

Airbus executives at the show are pledging full cooperation with French accident investigators, but until the black box is found, the crash will remain shrouded in mystery. As one analyst told me, off the record: “The digital data recorder is 20,000 feet beneath the South Atlantic ocean. They’ll never find it, so we may never know what caused the crash.”

Meanwhile, Airbus’ arch-rival, Boeing, has not brought its 787 Dreamliner to this all-important venue — an embarrassing admission of chronic delays with an aircraft that’s supposed to be a “game changer”.

Paul Leighton, editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value News, expressed hard-nosed realism leavened by long-term optimism. A savvy and seasoned observer of the aviation sector, his remarks to me at the show very aptly summed up the situation:

“After nearly 30 years in aviation, this is the worst recession. In contrast to most of the other downturns in aviation, there is no single cause for the malaise. With no protection from a regulatory environment — unless Chapter 11 in the U.S. is counted — there will be further failures. There will be little in the way of optimism at the Salon, with beer replacing bubbly. The worst is not over as any sustained rise in fuel prices will hamper the recovery, such as it is. But aviation is resilient and the next Paris Salon will be totally different.”

Paul’s influential newsletter is produced by Aviation Today; to subscribe, click here. He also serves as managing director of the Aircraft Value Analysis Co., based in the U.K. In September, he will serve as chairman of the Aircraft Valuation Conference. To learn more about the conference, click here.

Not all is gloom-and-doom, though. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are figuring prominently here, which is no surprise given the vast sums that the world’s militaries and homeland defense agencies continue to pour into these versatile aircraft. Notably, Elbit Systems is launching at the show a new tactical UAV — the Hermes 90, the newest iteration of the Hermes family of drones.

Hermes’ improvements include day, night and all-weather capability; longer endurance of up to 18 hours per mission; and battle-hardened components suitable for combat conditions. Elbit is positioning the Hermes to compete in the U.S. Marine Corps’ Small Tactical Aircraft System/Tier II program.

Moreover, Schiebel’s Camcopter S-100 is flying over the skies of Le Bourget on a daily basis, representing the first-ever UAV to take part in the official Paris flight displays. This compact reconnaissance UAV is capable of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL), GPS or manual operation, and six-hour operation with a 55-pound payload. In a nifty bit of pyrotechnics, jumbo screens at the show are displaying real-time video from the UAV.

Rockwell Collins at a press conference today discussed technologies it is pioneering to expedite the “convergence” of manned and unmanned aviation, in response to the civilian and parapublic sectors’ increasing adoption of unmanned drones for firefighting, aerial law enforcement, search and rescue, and airport security. The company emphasized its Watchkeeper, Shadow and Sky Warrior UAV programs as exemplifications of the move toward a completely integrated global airspace for the seamless operation of UAVs.

On related matters, I interviewed today Jean Menard, director of sales at EMS SATCOM, a supplier of high-speed data communications equipment for a wide range of commercial and military aircraft. He discussed the company’s award of the first European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for EMS SATCOM’s broadband antenna and transceiver solution for commercial aviation, allowing passengers worldwide high-speed email, voice, Internet, and WiFi capabilities.

Final note: At last night’s journalism award banquet, neither myself nor any of my colleagues won. Quel dommage! Of course, it’s a distinction and an honor merely to be short-listed. There’s always next year.

When it comes to the Paris Air Show, people fall into three categories: been there, done that, done with it; been there, done that, still doing it (my situation); and never been there. Let’s face it, commuting out to Le Bourget from the inner arrondissements of Paris is a real slog. But I consider myself fortunate to be detailed to this elegant, teeming city once every two years, and this one year in particular — the centennial of an international spectacle started in 1909.

Scholar and gentleman that he is, our publisher John Persinos has already set the scene for this year’s Paris Air Show in two previous posts. I have little to add to John’s cogent analysis, describing the muted expectations of an industry weathering a powerful economic downturn and the tragedy of Air France Flight 447. Those expectations were personified in a fellow from Houston I met while checking into the Hotel Magenta near Gare de l’Est. With all that has transpired, he said, it will be interesting to see who “shows up.”

Just before arriving here Saturday, I had the opportunity to attend the first public speech of new FAA Administrator J. Randolph “Randy” Babbitt, who gave the keynote address at the RTCA Symposium near Dulles International Airport. Part of that speech was devoted to FAA’s handling of another recent tragedy, the Feb. 12 crash of Continental Express (Colgan Air) Flight 3407 in Buffalo. Some people who may have showed up in Paris will instead be attending FAA’s regional airline safety summit Monday in Washington, D.C.

Most of Babbitt’s speech, however, focused on the vision of the Next Generation Air Transportation System, aka NextGen, and that is a topic that will be represented in Paris. There are two bookend events of interest:

On Monday at 10:30 a.m., ITT Corp. will host a roundtable discussion (ITT PAS Pavilion, Hall 3, Stand D52) on “major challenges associated with modernizing the world’s air traffic control systems.” Among scheduled panelists are Dorothy Reimold, FAA Acting Administrator for International Aviation; Marion Blakey, president and CEO of the Aviation Industries Association and former FAA administrator; and Peter Griffiths, vice president for Europe of the International Air Transport Association and former director general of the U.K. Civil Aviation Authority. As you no doubt know from the pages of Avionics Magazine, ITT Corp. is rolling out the ground stations for Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) in the United States. I was pleased to accept their invitation to sit at the ITT table for the Aerospace Journalist of the Year Awards presentation ceremony Sunday evening.

Next Thursday at 10 a.m., Thales will host a press briefing on the Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program at the Thales Press Chalet B119. Thales announced Friday that it has officially become a member of the SESAR Joint Undertaking (JU), a public-private partnership backed by the European Commission and Eurocontrol. Thales has been awarded 120 million euros for the SESAR development phase, and will co-lead three work packages for next-generation ATC systems, System Wide Information Management (SWIM) and communications, navigation, surveillance. It is a major contributor to work packages for avionics and airport systems. Among speakers at the press briefing will be Patrick Ky, SESAR JU executive director, and Bertrand de l’Epinois, SESAR program director for Thales Air Systems.

And speaking of Thales, I look forward to the first air show appearance in the West of the Sukhoi Superjet 100, which features an A380-inspired Thales avionics suite. Look for our interview with Alexey Gourevich, Sukhoi SSJ100 program director, in the August issue of Avionics Magazine.

Au revoir for now …

I’m now ensconced in my hotel in the Latin Quarter of Paris, near the Sorbonne campus, soaking in the sensual pleasures of this ancient, storied neighborhood. As with many legendary cities, Paris has lost a bit of its charm in recent years — it has become more of a moneyed megalopolis, a frenetic French version of New York.

Certain sections purposely retain their Old World charm for the Amex-wielding tourists, but this city is no longer a comfortable refuge for broke bohemian expatriates. Atmospheric bistros still abound, of course, but Papa Hemingway and his booze-sodden Lost Generation wouldn’t recognize the place. They’d probably pronounce Paris “ruined” and flee to a less-populated backwater.

That said, the beauty of Paris still overwhelms, even for the most jaded of travelers. Notre-Dame never fails to inspire with its Medieval mysticism; the Champs-Élysées and other grand boulevards retain their power to exhilarate; the Seine and its quays and bridges will stir poetic thoughts for many more centuries; the quaint cafes continually beckon.

Perhaps that’s why, despite global economic uncertainty, the Paris Air Show is more than holding its own in 2009. Who would skip the chance to come to Paris?

This year marks the 100th anniversary of this massive confab, which alternates with the Farnborough International Air Show, held near London. GIFAS, the French aerospace industries association that administers the Paris Air Show, has pulled out the stops for the centennial, putting 30 aircraft from past eras of aviation history on display. The vintage aircraft include a Bleriot XI, first shown at the inaugural Paris Air Show in 1909, held in the Grand Palais on the Champs-Élysées.

Bill Carey and I will be writing our blog from the show, all next week. My “pre-show” blog posting yesterday already received 11 comments; you can read each of them, by clicking the “Comments” hyperlink below. I’ll answer most of those queries during the course of my reporting on the show floor; the event doesn’t officially open its doors until Monday, June 15.

A couple of comments from my blog readers focused on the still mysterious crash of Air France flight 447 over the Atlantic Ocean.

Air show attendees that I’ve spoken with acknowledge that the loss of the Air France Airbus A-330, and its 228 passengers and crew, will serve as a recurring theme at the event, casting a long shadow over aviation in general and air safety in particular. Airbus, of course, will come under plenty of unwelcome scrutiny.

Safety investigators still don’t know what caused the crash; theories abound, from a faulty pitot tube to Islamic terrorism to a lightning strike. Until that French nuclear sub funds the aircraft’s black box, speculation will swirl in the stands and chalets of Le Bourget. One theory I overheard is that the crash was an act of “technical sabotage”, aimed at two activists on the flight who were involved in worldwide gun control. Don’t snicker. History teaches us that conspriacy theories once considered outlandish sometimes turned out to be horribly true.

That said, the crash won’t dampen the show in the same devastating manner that the supersonic Concorde’s spectacular and fiery crash in 2000 affected the Farnborough Air Show which followed afterwards. Meanwhile, marketing people I’ve recently chatted with say that Airbus has no intention of going into a “defensive crouch” during the show.

The mood of attendees and exhibitors appears to be upbeat. In the fall of 2008, it seemed as if the world economy was about to plunge into the abyss. Wall Street had melted down and suddenly analogies to the Great Depression of the 1930s were on everyone’s lips. World economies aren’t out of the woods just yet; the recession still runs deep. But there’s a sense that a bottom has been reached, that the worst is behind us.

To be sure, the economic backdrop for aviation, and hence for this show, remains in flux. Oil prices have started to climb again and now approach $70/BBL; unemployment in many major economies flirts with double digits; and passenger demand for plane tickets has dropped dramatically. Retrenchment is the byword for the civilian aviation sector.

However, buoying the industry — and the Paris show — is continued strong demand for military aircraft. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Paris is a huge bazaar for military aircraft, both fixed and rotary wing, and many customers, notably new NATO members, continue to spend lavishly. The global credit meltdown doesn’t affect the world’s militaries because their wherewithal comes from taxpayers

On a more personal note: Tomorrow night (Sunday), I’ll be attending the 2009 Aerospace Journalist of the Year Awards Dinner & Presentation Ceremony, at Le Méridien Etoile. Sponsored by the World Leadership Forum, they’re considered to be the world’s most prestigious and competitive awards for aviation writers and broadcasters.

I’m happy to say that yours truly, and many of my colleagues, are on the awards “short list” this year. Here’s a run down of short-listed journalists who either work at Aviation Today or its sister publications:

Air Show Daily

Berlin Air Show Blog, by John Persinos, Aviation Today

Best Business Aircraft Submission

Modern VIP Interiors, by Andrew Parker, Aviation Maintenance magazine

Avionics

IMA Architecture of A350 XWB, by Bill Carey, Avionics magazine

General Aviation

Silver State Helicopters, by Ernie Stephens, Rotor & Wing magazine

Maintenance

The Danger Zone, by Charlotte Adams, Aviation Maintenance magazine

Systems & Technology

NVG Patchwork, by Charlotte Adams, Rotor & Wing

Tune in to this blog after the ceremony, to see how many of us won. The winners are on the hook to buy the drinks.