Editor’s Note: On May 11, John Persinos, editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence, interviewed Kathryn Creedy. As a veteran aviation journalist, Kathryn has been covering aviation/aerospace workforce development issues for over a decade. She’s president of the National Coalition of Aviation & Space Education. She’s also editor-in-chief of Future Aviation/Aersopace Workforce News. The following is a transcript condensed for concision, with questions in bold.
Kathryn Creedy, president of the National Coalition of Aviation & Space Education and editor-in-chief of Future Aviation/Aersopace Workforce News.
Spirit Airlines built its brand around dirt-cheap fares, but now bankruptcy is on the table. What really went wrong there, and what does it say about the current state of the airline business overall?
When I expressed my opposition for a bailout of Sprit, I noted that after deregulation, Braniff Airlines’ bankruptcy was the test of whether government would do bailouts. It would not and that was the appropriate response from the feds.
The market had decided and Braniff loaded up on new routes it couldn’t sustain. Since then, we have lost legendary airlines such as Pan Am and TWA who failed to adjust to deregulation.
TWA had a bigger domestic footprint but it was full of competition. Pan Am had no domestic feed despite buying National but never reorganized its thinking to what was needed.
I don’t think the loss of Spirit will have any effect on the airline industry. The market did what it does best. Spirit did not adapt.
At the beginning of deregulation Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers (ULCCs) like Spirit cleaned the clock of legacy air carriers, especially Southwest. But after serial bankruptcies and mergers in the 2000s, the legacies came out stronger by reducing costs, creating better products, and capitalizing on not being a one-trick pony by relying only on fare-sensitive travelers.
The legacy carriers adapted, with the help of the courts. Since 2020, legacies have reinvented themselves to be all things to all people. Passengers paid up.
Meanwhile ULCCs struggled because they only served leisure whereas the legacies could rely on business which always paid the way and subsidized leisure.
Only last year, Spirit and Frontier tried to adjust their models to include more space, but for Spirit it was too little too late. It failed to adapt and it’s now extinct. JetBlue has been working on a better inflight experience since the beginning and pivoted often; that is why it has survived. I don’t have a prediction for Frontier.
The other thing that happened was the antitrust folks nixed all the mergers between ULCCs and LCCs citing competition, which is laughable since we have now lost a competitor. But I expect airplanes and staff to be gobbled up because of the workforce shortages in the industry.
Travelers keep hearing about air traffic control shortages, FAA problems, delays, and outdated systems. From your perspective, what’s actually broken right now, and how serious is the situation?
Years ago, the industry began complaining about the hollowing out of the FAA as everything was delayed owing to politics and the failure of Congress to fund the agency properly. Everything is broken.
Full air traffic control staffing was set at 14,663 in a 2025 government report. Current staffing is at 11,000 nationally. Plans call for hiring 8,900 controllers through 2028 in a system that lacks instructors. The government also anticipates about a 30% washout rate, but the FAA recently reported that the rate is dropping. FAA expects total attrition of 6,872 controllers through 2028.
Based on the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan, the agency plans to hire approximately 4,600 new safety inspectors and engineers between 2025 and 2034 to support its Aviation Safety (AVS) organization.
FAA administrator Bryan Bedford said something profound at the Changing Aviation Summit in February: “We didn’t start with the [cost] numbers and how to pay for it,” he said. “We started with what was the cost of not doing it.”
With tensions and conflict involving Iran rattling global markets, what kinds of ripple effects could this have on airlines, air travel demand, fuel prices, and aircraft orders?
Well, it amazes me the airlines, such as United and Delta, are reporting strong demand and having no problems raising fares 10%. I think we may have repealed a basic airline economic rule: a 1% increase in fares = an equal decrease in demand.
Legacies have adjusted their models not only to beat ULCCs at their own game but to attract affluent passengers because, as Willy Horton said about why he robbed banks, that’s where the money is. But the slightest disruption. such as government shutdowns, drive the rich to private aviation.
Nobody is paying attention to what is happening to the middle class and that’s the story not being told except in snippets in various news articles. I just don’t think the demand is sustainable because it is built on credit card debt and we all remember what happens when consumers slip beneath the waves.
Airlines are pouring money into inflight Wi-Fi and connectivity. Has staying connected at 35,000 feet basically become a must-have now rather than a luxury?
It’s been a must-have for years and the technology has finally caught up with the on-ground experience, which is what the airlines have been chasing. End-users increasingly expect a seamless experience, which makes the role of service integrators increasingly important.
We’re seeing airlines offer Wi-Fi for free. It reduces the cost of inflight entertainment when Wi-Fi can leverage the passengers’ own devices. Ditto with device plugs at the seat.
Thanks for your time.
John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence.
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