Boeing Forecast: China to Become Trillion-Dollar Aircraft Market

By Juliet Van Wagenen | September 13, 2016
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Air China Boeing 737-800
Air China Boeing 737-800. Photo: Boeing

[Avionics Today 09-13-2016] Boeing has released its China Current Market Outlook, projecting the demand for 6,810 new airplanes in the country over the next 20 years. The total value of those new airplanes sits at a staggering at $1.025 trillion, making China the first trillion-dollar aviation market in Boeing’s forecast.

“As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Because travel and transportation are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4 percent annually in China over the next 20 years.”

Boeing predicts China will need 5,110 new single-aisle airplanes through 2035, accounting for 75 percent of total new deliveries. Low-cost carriers and full-service airlines have been adding airplanes and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand from a rising middle class in China and throughout Asia.

Boeing forecasts the widebody fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new airplanes such as the 787, 777 and 777X.  The 2016 forecast reflects a continued shift from very large airplanes to new small and medium widebody airplanes.
China’s single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18 percent of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China’s widebody fleet only represents approximately 5 percent of the global widebody segment.

Driven by China’s growing e-commerce business — already the largest in the world — air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters.

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