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Commercial Jet Transports
About this study/key findings:
This market looks great. On the strength of surging traffic and improving airline financials (despite expensive fuel) we expect production to rise through 2010. The market will peak at 1,129 planes worth $81.4 billion, a 100% increase from the recent not-too-painful low point of the cycle—586 planes worth $39.7 billion in 2003.
The upturn could keep going, but that would likely lead to an unpleasant downturn after 2011. Our forecast instead calls for a comfortable and temporary dip after 2011. Basically, international widebody and US domestic narrowbody demand will keep numbers up after the current international narrowbody boom softens.
We forecast production of 9,411 jetliners worth $692.5 billion over the next ten years (2007-2016). This includes 6,585 single aisle planes worth $298.2 billion, and 2,826 twin aisle planes worth $394.3 billion (all of these numbers are in 2007 dollars).
Boeing’s lead over Airbus is increasing. The 787 is off to a very strong start. Boeing’s commitment of the necessary resources for the project has had a knock-on effect, boosting customer confidence in Boeing and its overall product line.
Airbus’s response to the 777 and 787, the A350 XWB, looks less ambitious than the 787, but should perform well against the 777. Given constraints on Airbus’s new product development spending (largely because of the much less relevant A380), the A350 looks like a smart strategy. The A340, however, is in serious trouble.