About this study/key findings:
These are great times. High corporate profits, business globalization, high commodity prices, and emerging market growth, are producing another all-time market high this year—999 planes worth $16.4 billion—with further growth into 2010.
After the market peak, we predict a modest market dip, but this industry looks set to remain considerably larger than before its pre-1996-2001 transformation, when it experienced 350% growth.
We forecast production of 12,000 business jets worth $173.2 billion (in 2007 dollars) over the next ten years. Almost 50% of these (by value) will be Class Four and Five (high-end) models. We also forecast production of 298 corporate versions of jetliners and regional jets, worth a combined total of $12.3 billion.
Gulfstream and Bombardier will be the market leaders (24.6% and 24.5% respectively), followed by Cessna (19.1%) and Dassault (16.3%) at the second tier. Hawker Beechcraft will have 11%.
New VLJ makers, plus Embraer, look set to get 4.5% of the market in our forecast period. This last figure is up from zero in the last ten years. Business jets are the only aviation segment with significant new market entrants. This is possible due to a combination of sufficiently high growth rates and low barriers to entry.
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