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Business Aviation Avionics Market Analysis and Outlook, February 2009 (AB081)

Market Findings

• Business aviation avionics markets remain very dynamic. Although a significant slow down of US and European market demand will affect sales over the next three years.

• The sector remains the most innovative in terms of new technology adoption and experimentation.

• Rockwell Collins, Honeywell and Universal Avionics continue to dominate the medium to higher market segments with Garmin establishing a solid foothold at the lower end of the market segment with emerging light jet programs.

• The dominance of integrated systems will not lead to a similar dominance from one or two players alone. Aircraft OEMs are likely to mitigate risk with the transition to multiple subs working for a lead integrator on future key programs.

Key Figures

• Market will grow from $2.1 billion in 2008 to $2.5 billion in 2020

• Total Avionics CAGR for the forecast period is 1.2%

• Avionics Retrofit CAGR for the forecast period is 2.1%

• Estimates indicate that 3,500+ in or soon to be in-service business jets will receive a system upgrade/retrofit by 2020

Near Term Outlook

• Limited opportunities remain for avionics suppliers due to the very limited number of new aircraft programs.

• Retrofit market will suffer significantly from US and European recessions despite incentives

• Increased complexity of avionics systems will limit opportunities for new entrants over the forecast period.

• Migration downward will be increasingly possible for companies such as Rockwell Collins and Thales but will be a financially and technologically unlikely possibility for companies looking to migrate upward such as Garmin, Chelton or even CMC

Table of Contents

• Executive Briefing

• Executive Briefing

• Definitions

• Key Figures

• Market Drivers

• Market Restraints

• Market Dynamics

• Key market considerations for the near term

• Segment Specific Avionics Trends & Issues

• Market Performance Vs Business Jets Deliveries 1994-2008

• Aircraft Deliveries (Units – all models 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries (Units – all models 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries (Units – all models 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries (Percentage Breakdown by categories 2008-2020)

• Market Analysis:VLJ/PLJ Deliveries (2009-2020)

• VLJ/PLJs: Failure or Delayed Success?

• Market Analysis: Business Jets minus PLJs/VLJs (2009- 2020)

• Aircraft OEMs Production Value (2008-2020)

• Market Analysis: Aircraft Production by OEMs

• Top 3 Aircraft OEMS billings ($ million- 2008-2020) Research Note AB081

• Aircraft Deliveries Breakdown ( PLJ- Units 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries ( PLJ -Shipment Values 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries Breakdown (Light Jets- Units 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries ( Light Jets -Shipment Values 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries Breakdown ( Midsize/Large Jets- Units 2008-2020)

• Aircraft Deliveries (Midsize/Large Jets -Shipment Values 2008-2020)

• Business and Personal Jets Deliveries Market shares 2008

• Business and Personal Jets Deliveries Market shares 2014

• Business and Personal Jets Deliveries Market shares 2020

• Total Avionics Revenues 2008-2020

• Total Avionics Revenues 2008-2020 (RF/FF)

• Total Avionics Revenues 2008-2020

• Total Aircraft-Avionics Revenues 2008-2020

• Retrofit Revenues 2008-2020

• Revenues (Segmented by Aircraft Category – Forward Fit 2008-2020

• Revenues (Segmented by Avionics Category, Forward Fit) 2008-2020

• Competitive Market Share (Forward Fit Avionics Prime Shipments) 2008-2020

• Competitive Market Share (Forward Fit Avionics Prime Revenues) 2008-2020

• Competitive Market Share 2008-2020 Alternative Scenario: Thales Market Entry

• Competitive Installed Base 2008 Selected Manufacturer’s Avionics Systems Installed Footprint

• Competitive Outlook 2008-2020

• Competitive Outlook 2008-2020: Items of Concern

• Perceived level of Exposure of Avionics Companies During the next 3-5 years

• Outlook: Critical Technology Areas

• Market Analysis:Outlook