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Persistent ISR: Market Analysis and Outlook (AB080)

AB080 Persistent ISR Definitions

• Profiled more than 200 fielded, in production or in-development UAS to qualify as an persistent ISR asset
• Dedicated strike and demonstration UAS platforms are not included in this definition
• Some systems can be configured for persistent ISR; this study’s aim is to characterize those systems designed specifically for persistent ISR
• Systems integrator revenues are counted here for market-share purposes, although G2 Solutions acknowledges that not all program revenues will flow to the integrator
• This report is meant to categorize acquisition of specific UAS components (airframe, sensors and ground control) over time
• Systems from countries such as Russia or the People’s Republic of China were not included, for lack of data, restrictions imposed on primary research and to acknowledge that these are closed programs
• Persistent surveillance is not meant to connote persistent stare over an entire theater. Rather, in its broadest terms it is intended to imply an ability to detect, locate and track militarily important and time-sensitive targets.
• Once the target is identified, the UAS should be able to provide surveillance up to, until and after strike aircraft (manned or unmanned) are called upon to prosecute effects.
• Ideally, such a UAS will also play a vital role in assessment as well.

Persistent ISR Market: Drivers

• The need for unpiloted ISR is pervasive and increasing
• Lessons learned are being fed into existing and developmental programs
• UAS programs are an integral and evolutionary part of CONOPS across all service branches, both U.S. and abroad
• Increased bandwidth, communications on the move and a greater degree of sensor-to-shooter capability make UAS more immediately useful
• The number of UAS combat hours flown as increased from 60,000 in 2004 to 250,000 in 2007
• DoD UAS budgets have increased from $1.6 billion in 2005 to close to $3 billion in 2008
• Militaries are loathe to go without a critical capability once deployed

Table of Contents

• Title Slide
• Definitions (3 slides)
• Methodology (2 slides)
• Persistent ISR: Total Market Revenues in Millions of USD, (2009-2019)
• Top-Level Findings
• Persistent ISR Market: Drivers (2 slides)
• Persistent ISR Market: Restraints (2 slides)
• Defense Customer Requirements and Trends (Title Slide)
• DoD ISR Demand Continues to Rise
• Global ISR Demand and Supply
• DoD UAS Flight Hours Over Time
• Evolving DoD CONOPS/Tempo Challenges
  Current UAS Capabilities
• DoD ISR Sensor Evolution and Requirements
• DoD Needs: UAS as a Solution Set
• Tactical ISR Tradeoffs: Efficiency, Time to Theater, Attritability and Performance
• DoN on STUAS/Tier II
• DoN Stands Up Dedicated Persistent UAS PMA
• Evolving DoD Persistent ISR Definitions are Normalizing
• Installed Base Forecasts (Title Slide)
• Persistent ISR: Installed Base Values (2008)
• Persistent ISR: Installed Base Company Market Share, in Millions of USD (2008)
• Market Forecasts 2009-2019 (Title Slide)
• Persistent ISR: Aircraft Revenues, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Sensor Revenues, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Ground Control Revenues, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Aircraft, Sensor and Ground Control Revenues, in Millions of USD (2009- 2019)
• Persistent ISR: Average Aircraft Cost Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• ISR and ISR Plus Strike Aircraft: UAS Revenues Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Aircraft Delivery Forecast (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Major Program Revenues Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Tier 2 Program Revenues Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Program Revenues Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: Forecast Market Share Revenues Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Persistent ISR: “Others” UAS Market Share Revenues Over Time, In Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Company Profiles (Title Slide)
• AAI: Projected Major Revenues by UAS, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• AAI Corporation
• General Atomics: Projected Major Revenues by UAS, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• IAI: Projected Major Revenues by UAS, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• IAI
• Northrop Grumman: Projected Major Revenues by UAS, in Millions of USD (2009- 2019)
• Boeing (Insitu)
• BAE Systems: Projected Major Revenues by UAS, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Raytheon
• Elbit Systems: Projected Major Revenues by UAS, in Millions of USD (2009-2019)
• Elbit Systems
• Lockheed Martin
• L-3
• Rockwell Collins
• SAGEM
• Major UAS Persistent ISR Acquisition Programs on the Horizon (Title Slide)
• STUAS/Tier II (3 Slides)
• USAF Next Generation UAS (2 Slides)
• Conclusions (Title Slide)
• DoD: Recommendations on Future System Design and Development
• DoD: An Optimal Approach to UAS Development
• Conclusions