Ascend has created a new online forecasting tool, predicting that narrow body deliveries may fall 20% but then begin to grow by 2012. Ascend’s Online Global Fleet Forecaster also sees wide body deliveries growing to grow to over 400 a year by the middle of the next decade, subject to the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 achieving planned rates.

The company’s 10-year forecast shows strong growth in the Asia/Pacific region which currently accounts for 22% of the jet fleet and is expected to take 35% of all deliveries. Such delivery rates will surpass Europe to represent a 28% market share in 2019, one point behind North America.

The Chinese fleet, it said, will expand at ever higher growth rates, from 7% to a 10% global share and taking 14% of deliveries. Southeast Asia’s narrow body needs are growing along with the expansion of low cost carriers, led by AirAsia. Thirty-six per cent of global narrow body deliveries will be to Asia (17% in China alone) over the coming decade. Australasia, including Australia and the Pacific islands, is the single largest market for new deliveries of wide body aircraft – 42%. Overall, 33% of the region’s fleet is wide bodied.

Ascend’s Global Forecaster includes independent 10-year annual aircraft delivery forecasts for over 45 aircraft types; detailed commentary and analysis for delivery and fleet forecasts; predictions per aircraft manufacturer, type and usage; global five- and ten-year fleet forecasts by region; and expected global retirements, conversions, recycling and deliveries.

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