With the advent of a new generation of 150-passenger, single-aisle jetliners apparently beginning to recede beyond the next decade, regional- and business-jet manufacturer Embraer has been revealing a little more of its own thinking about future developments to accommodate 100 or more passengers. As previously reported in Aviation Today Daily Brief during the Paris Air Show, the timing for emergence of new products from Airbus and Boeing, previously predicted for 2013-14, had moved to the right – partly as a result of new engines taking longer to develop. (2020 Foresight: The Next Narrow Body, 2020 Foresight: The Next Narrowbody – Part 2)


Recent received wisdom had added at least five years to the date. Indeed, this development has encouraged regional-jet manufacturers who aspire to enter the big-time business of "proper" aircraft offering capacity for more than 100 passengers. They might be stimulated by the thought that the ever-increasing average size of aircraft may lead Airbus and Boeing to develop aircraft whose capacities have likewise moved to the right: machines to accommodate 150-220 passengers rather than the 100-190 of current offerings.

Bombardier has gone ahead with the proposed 110-/130-seat C Series first revealed at the 2004 Farnborough Air Show), while Brazilian competitor Embraer has felt increasingly free to discuss publically its philosophy about possible developments of its existing E190/E195 products or introduction of a "clean computer-screen" design.

Such thinking by both companies might now have been encouraged by Airbus remarks at the Paris Air Show about new single-aisle airliners not coming to market until after 2020.

John Leahy, the European manufacturer's chief operating officer, customers, opined that replacement designs for the Airbus A320 series of Boeing 737 family could be delayed further. He thinks it could be "2020-2022 [before there is] a new single-aisle". With huge numbers of current models being ordered and with both companies holding huge backlogs of business, Leahy said at Paris: "It makes no sense to come out with something in the middle of the next decade."

The Airbus official believes that technical developments are holding back the next generation of narrow bodies, rather than economic considerations. "We have to wait for a quantum leap in new technology – in engines, flight-control systems, and manufacturing, and that's not here today," says Leahy. "People are taking a hard look at what's required and realising it's probably around 2020, or may be 2021 or 2022."

Having told ATDB earlier this year that it was "in discussion with [engine] manufacturers all the time," Embraer recently has confirmed discussions with General Electric (GE), Pratt & Whitney (P&W), and Rolls-Royce (R-R) concerning a power unit for a possible all-new design for an aircraft bigger than its current largest 118-seat E195 model. The company sees such a project as requiring "a new-generation engine," according to airline-market executive vice-president Mauro Kern. Related Story

He reports Embraer is talking to the three engine-makers about "a possible new 'platform' to support new airplanes," and confirms the company's statement to ATDB in late March that it does not need to commit itself before at least the end of next year.

Joint venture CFM International is seen as a more likely partner than either of its constituent members: French manufacturer Safran (Snecma) or GE – supplier of the E195's CF34 powerplant. Embraer is known to prefer open-rotor developments as being studied by GE and R-R to geared-turbofan technology adopted by P&W and chosen for Bombardier's C Series. Embraer is looking beyond 20,000-pound thrust.

Embraer also is considering the potential of composites materials for a new single-aisle design, although Airbus (considering its own A320 follow-on design) has warned that the weight and strength advantages of this technology might not translate easily to smaller airframes. However, Embraer indicates it is too early to know whether composites will be restricted to wings or include the fuselage. The company also has disclosed talks over time with Delta Air Lines about requirements for equipment to replace almost 200 McDonnell Douglas Dc-9s, MD-88s, and MD-90s (the latter operated by merger partner Northwest Airlines).

Over the next 18-24 months, the Brazilian manufacturer is also considering possible enhancements to the E190/E195 and a possible new 60- and 80-seat turboprop design (much larger than its previous 19-seat Bandeirante and 35-passenger EMB120 Brasilia models) to replace ATR 42/72 and Bombardier de Havilland Dash 8 series aircraft. Up to the beginning of July, Embraer had taken orders for 882 E170/E175/E190/E195 aircraft, of which 328 remained to be delivered.