The good news is that the 2009 peak summer travel season should see fewer airline delays as a result of U.S. air carrier capacity cuts, modified airline scheduling, new fees imposed on passengers and declining passenger traffic. But all that comes with a high cost for airlines. Not contributing to the friendlier skies is federal government actions implemented to battle congestion, according to a senior federal official.

Department of Transportation (DOT) Inspector General Calvin Scovel said there is no evidence that DOT and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) initiatives implemented in 2007 to release air traffic gridlock have contributed to delay reductions. But nevertheless he expects airline performance will continue to hold steady or improve further.

Testifying recently before the House Transportation aviation subcommittee, Scovel said the improved on-time performance is primarily driven by flight cutbacks that airlines implemented in the face of last year’s unprecedented fuel prices and onset of the global economic downturn.

In addition to the capacity cuts, altered flight schedules and reduced passenger volumes, Scovel said new runways at Washington-Dulles, Chicago O'Hare and Seattle-Tacoma airports have fostered fewer delays. He also noted that airlines claim that new fees for checked bags have reduced the number of bags handled by the airlines and aided in the more timely operation of flights.

“Although the current delay statistics and customer service trends look favorable, history shows that traffic will rebound given the intrinsic value of air transport to the nation’s livelihood,” he said. “Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the current positive trend can be sustained. Absent changes, rising air travel will increase the number of delays and cancellations as well as air traveler dissatisfaction. It is therefore important that FAA continually improve efforts to reduce delays and that DOT complete initiatives to enhance protection for air travelers.”

Barring extended severe weather, the DOT IG expects the improved on-time performance experienced over the last eight months to continue through the summer and fall. Advanced schedules published by the airlines reveal that the reductions in scheduled flights implemented last fall will continue into 2009, four to five percent lower than last summer.

“However, we are concerned that with improved on-time performance, less congestion, and the pressure for cost reductions, airlines will be tempted to tighten scheduling to reduce scheduled flight times and flight turnaround times, which could have an adverse impact on delays,” warned the senior transportation agency official.

Scovel noted that “while air travelers may experience fewer delays this summer, they will likely have fewer choices of flights as airlines continue to reduce services. Air travelers can also expect airlines to continue to charge fees for previously included services, such as checked baggage and seat selection.

“Over the long term, economic forecasts predict a positive turn in the economy and upward growth in airline traffic. As we have seen most recently, even small reductions in flight activity produce large reductions in delays. Conversely, we can expect that small increases in flight operations will gradually produce larger increases in delays.

“Notwithstanding the uncertainty facing the aviation industry, FAA and DOT now have an opportunity to strategically position themselves for a rebound in air travel. The long-term solution to reducing delays and congestion depends on NextGen implementation. However, much work is needed to set realistic expectations and funding profiles for this effort,” Scovel said.

Subcommittee Chair Jerry Costello (D-IL) noted that airline on-time performance and reductions in delays have improved but questioned if these positive trends could remain when passenger traffic returns. "An important part of getting better customer service is making sure that the industry is making good on its promises to the flying public,” he believes.

Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI) stated, "We are witnessing a system in desperate need of new advanced technologies in the air and increased capacity on the ground. If history is any guide, passenger demand and increased traffic will rebound with the economy. FAA must use this lull as an opportunity to get ahead of the next delay crisis."

John Meenan, executive vice president and COO, Air Transport Association of America (ATA), says the upcoming travel season will suffer fewer flight delays but he is concerned about problem areas around the nation.

“The 2009 summer season is upon us. While we expect overall performance to be somewhat better than last year because there will be less demand and, therefore, less stress on the ATC system this year - a sobering reflection of the weakened economy – we remain concerned about key airports, particularly the New York-area airports. Even with reduced demand, current DOT data demonstrate low performance levels in New York,” he testified.

Meenan believes “the biggest factor that can improve the passenger experience and customer service is not in the airlines’ control. That factor is modernizing the ATC system through the NextGen and, in particular, accelerating implementation of certain NextGen components. Accelerating aspects of NextGen to create a NowGen program will accelerate much needed capacity and efficiency improvements, thereby reducing congestion and delays and improving customer service.”

NowGen focuses on accelerating five key technologies and implementing related procedures. These are: Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), Area Navigation (RNAV)/Required Navigation Performance (RNP), Electronic Display Upgrades, Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS) and Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance (LPV).

James Crites, executive vice president of operations at Dallas/Fort Worth International, offered yet another perspective.

“With rising load factors on aircraft comes a greater need to provide sufficient capacity to accommodate flight operations. In years past with lower load factors, airlines were capable of supplying enough seats so that the vast majority of passengers who might have encountered extended delays due to adverse weather conditions or other causes could complete their intended travel on the day of travel.

“However, as the challenges of maintaining what I would refer to as ‘ramp capacity’ increase during periods of lightning or freezing precipitation, so does the rise in the number of passengers who find their duration of travel extended because record high load factors mean that fewer seats are available following a major delay.

“This too is a cause of serious concern to our passengers, and can serve as a driving force behind the airlines’ desire to complete as many flight operations as possible during periods of adverse weather, which in turn can lead to extended tarmac delay. As such, I would urge that we as an aviation industry strive to explore potential remedies to this situation,” Crites stated.

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