French aviation investigators have expressed cautious optimism about finding the black boxes of Air France Flight 447, which crashed in the Atlantic last June en route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. All 228 people aboard the plane were killed.

A third search for the Airbus A330 was launched in late February after two earlier efforts failed to locate the jetliner’s flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder.

Jean-Paul Troadec, chief of the French Accident Investigation Agency, said an international team of experts have reduced the search area to 965 square miles, a fifth the size of the previous Atlantic Ocean search zone.

The U.S. Navy and the U.S.. National Transportation Safety Board are assisting in the search, along with accident experts from Britain, Germany, Russia and Brazil. Private companies are also involved, providing mini-subs and boats equipped with sonar gear.

The new search has a budget of  $13.73 million. The new search is jointly financed by Airbus and Air France. The search site includes depths of up to 4,000 meters.

The black boxes  are no longer emitting locator signals, but officials are optimistic the submarines and boats equipped with sonar gear will be able to find the wreckage.

Jean-Paul Troadec, put the odds of finding the downed plane and its flight data recorders at “well above 50 percent.”

Investigators used computer models of currents and wind direction in the days after the crash to narrow the search zone under scrutiny. “We have reduced the size of the haystack,” Troadec said. “Now we have to find the needle.

Troadec said the equipment and personnel would arrive at the search zone by mid-March and the hunt would continue for four weeks. If it is unsuccessful, the search effort could be extended, provided additional funding can be obtained, he said.

Ramon Lopez also serves as editor-in-chief of Air Safety Week; he has been covering air safety for more than three decades (rlopez@accessintel.com).

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