This year’s Paris Air Show may be critical for three programs in need of boosts in the Western markets and activity at the Bombardier, Superjet and Mitsubishi Chalets will be closely watched. Bombardier and Mistubishi – which is sticking to the regional market, and gained kudos at the recent Regional Airline Association convention – are due on the market in 2013. While Bombardier, Mitsubishi Aircraft Company and SuperJet Internaitonal have already committed to program, Embraer remains on the sidelines, exploring the market and awaiting technology development before it rolls out its plans for the future of its commercial aircraft market. In the meantime, it is content with concentrating on its ambitious business jet program which has inclued six new aircraft launches in the past four years, three of which are already in service -- the Phenom, Linneage and 100 and Legacy. However, Superjet enters service next year and just opened up a new U.S. sales office for that much sought after U.S. airlines that will kick off U.S. certification.

Bombardier’s 110- to 130-seat CSeries just converted its Lufthansa letter of intent to firm orders and, with its leasing company order from Lease Corporation International (LCI), the order book now stands at 50 firm – 30 CS100s for LH which will operate it through Swiss International. LCI has ordered three CS100s and 17 CS300s. The LCI order is pivotal since the manufacturer expects a third or more of sales to go to lessors, which could go as high as 40%, according to Bombardier Commercial Aircraft President Gary Scott.

Such a success with leasing companies will be a departure for the Canadian regioinal and business jet manufacturer given the fact that regionals jets from it and Embraer do not even make the radar scope of most lessors. But Bombardier is not targeting the regional market so much as it is aiming at the very low end of the mainline market. The problem is that past small mainline equipment, the Fokker 100 and BAC 111 in particular, have not been terribly successful in favor of 150+-seat equipment. That leaves the biggest question the fate of scope clauses in the U.S. which, according to those at RAA, do not have a snow ball’s chance in hell of moving given the impact of the economy on labor.

Recent safety issues in the U.S. has also highlighted how carriers are outsourcing their service to regionals and Congressional rhetoric, which calls it a race to the bottom at the cost of safety, is already causing concern among passengers with survey’s showing, that if they are lucky enough to enjoy service by a mainline aircraft they will wait and, if not, they will drive. The Congressional innuendo resulting from recent safety hearings into regional airline safety and FAA oversight as well as National Transportation Safety Board hearings into the Colgan crash of a Q400 in Buffalo in February is dripping with all the concern and disdain normally reserved for such hot topics as outsourcing maintenance overseas. Indeed, Congressional leaders even said yesterday that more than half of regional maintenance is outsourced.

The company, along with Sukhoi, are betting on whether or not the market has changed significantly enough to make that segment more attractive. Several factors are in play that could prove them right but it is a huge gamble. First, mainline airlines are converting from being run by operational executives to financial executives, making the financial case that much more important. In addition, the economy has forced carriers to ground significant portions of their fleets in favor of fuller planes and fewer frequencies. But fewer frequencies mitigate for larger planes. Finally, the jump in efficiency promised by Pratt & Whitney’s PurePower 1500G and the xx by these planes could make them more attractive given the environmental controls on the horizon.

Bombardier’s Paris display is heavily tilted toward its business jet market with only the Q400 NextGen turboprop airliner on display. The company just delivered “a new era in turboprop aircraft, according BCA's Gary Scott its first Q400 NextGen to Norwegian regional carrier Widerøe’s Flyveselskap A/S, the first of six on firm order A de Havilland/Bombardier customer since 1957, Widerøe currently operates 30 de Havilland/Bombardier 39-seat Dash 8-100, 50-seat Q300 and 78-seat Q400 aircraft with 330. Firm orders for Bombardier Q400 and Q400 NextGen aircraft stand at 347, with 233 delivered as of January 31, 2009. Q400 and Q400 NextGen aircraft are in service with, or have been ordered by, 30 operators around the world.

No doubt the company will be asked again about a larger variant of the Q400, now knows as the Q400X, wanted by the industry, according to briefings at RAA when officials indicated that it was not yet ready to make a launch decision because it is still studying the business case. It has, however, increased production of its Q400 even as it reduced production for CRJs. Indeed, the increased turboprop production will account for the 10% increase in commercial aircraft deliveries this fiscal year.

Bombardier, as with Mitsubishi, still sees a healthy market in the 100-seat and below segment especially as airlines replace 50 seaters. Still, its CSeries will broaden its market opportunities and it was clear that both Bombardier and Sukhoi were emphasizing their larger aircraft to address market changes.
But its briefing schedule emphasizes the CSeries with a program update on Tuesday at 10:30 with Scott. Before that, on Monday at 10:30 it releases its updated forecast following on the heels of the release yesterday of Boeing’s revised forecast which significantly reduced market needs.

T-Props
Meanwhile, ATR Head of Sales North America John Moore reported nearly 1000 orders for its ATR turboprop since the inception of the program with 823 having already been delivered. Pegging its back log at $3 billion and 162 units, he said, puts the company in a strong position.

He reported increasing activity in the Latin America and African markets. “North America is still sleeping,” he told media at RAA, noting that it remains the only 50-seat turboprop still in production with steady demand.

Moore suggested the U.S. market was poised for a turboprop resurgence especially with the robust demand for a turboprop larger than 70+ seats. Noting that the ATR 72 was the lowest cost 70-seater on the market in terms of fuel burn, he indicated it would prove to be a good aircraft to replace the 50-seat regional jets as they are retired. “It has similar trip costs as a 50-seat regional jet with the added benefit of 20+ more seats,” he said.

ATR is currently involved in the early stages of determining market expectations as well as discussions with major suppliers on how to meed the demand, what improvements in fuel burn and maintenance can be obtained. “Our feeling is that this would be a new aircraft, not a derivative of existing models,” he said.

Any new aircraft, whether a jet or turboprop, of course, depends on the engines but, he said, “we are confident the manufacturers can developt and produce an engine to meet the target that will justify a new program. So far no one has told us that the requirements cannot be achieved.” He pegged EIS as the middle of the next decade for an aircraft in the 90- to 100-seat range based on what customers are pushing for. “Our customers are telling us that if we had it today, they’d be buying it today,” he said. “That is the level of interest.”

Moore also said that the U.S. market had a unique requirement in a forward passenger door which has now been developed as an option in order to accommodate mainline requirements for jet-bridge boarding. It also, he said, affords dual class configuration and increasing requirement for U.S. mainline carriers seeking seamless service.

ATR sees a requirement for 2,700 aircraft over the next 40 years in its market segment with a value of $43 billion. “The annual fuel cost savings,” he noted, “is 50% compared to a regional jet and 40% compared to the Dash 8. That equates to $6.75 million based on $2.70 per gallon on a fleet of 10 ATR 72s. or 2.5 million gallons of fuel and 24,599 tons of CO2. It would take 4200 acres of forest to offset the extra fuel consumption of other aircraft.”

Moore also noted the ATR 72-600 produced major improvement, especially with respect to hot-and-high performance, now available on the -500. It also includes accommodates for increased passenger weights as well as new lighting, new seats, new materials and an increased volument on overhead bins. The company is also centralizing maintenance data analysis and a new avionics suite that includes ADS-B, RNP, VNAV and Category IIIA capabilities. The new avionics are based on Thales’ suite, originally developed for the A380 but fitted for the ATR.

Flights tests were to occur this month and, at RAA, Moore said they were on track, with certification and first delivery set for first half of 2011. The company has a 36-aircraft order book for the 600, in both the -42 and -72 configurations. It recently booked an order from Royal Air Maroc for the advanced aircraft.

ATR expects to deliver 60 to 65 aircraft this year having sold 300 since 2005 when turboprops began to come back. The company expects to sell about the same number as last year at about 42-43.

Superjet 100
As for the Superjet 100, making its flying debut at this year’s Paris Air Show, analysts see it as either symbolizing the last gasp of a dying industry or Russia’s answer to the growing former Eastern Block reliance on Western aircraft. Its partnership with Alenia has certainly drawn kudos in the West, for which it has marketing responsibility. At the very least it is banking on the fact it will be a faster less risky acquisition for customers compared to its rivals that are not due on the market until 2013.

Although Aeroflot was originally slated to debut the aircraft, Superjet International CEO Alessandro Franzoni, confirmed at RAA with the first two aircraft are headed to Armavia at the end of the year and then the 30-aircraft order from Aeroflot will begin fulfillment. It has 35 aircraft on order from Western airlines, said the company, including the 10 for ItAli Airlines, the Western launch customer with its EIS scheduled in the second half of next year, and five for AMA, a Swiss finance firm. It also has 20 from an unnamed customer that press reports indicate is Icelandair Group, although Franzoni would only say that the undisclosed customer was linked to EASA certification.

All the airlines have focused on the Superjet 100 95-seat regional aircraft, said Franzoni, who indicated there were no orders for the 75-seat version. “Initially the program included a 95-seat version and a 75-seat aircraft,” he said. “But we have learned a lot during the past few years and we are considering a different strategy now. We are not only looking at 75 seats but now a 115-120 seats. We expect demand to build there and we expect to make an announcement on our final decisions on product strategy based on customer preference. We have not abandoned our 75-seat plans but we don’t see the customer demand there now. Any stretched version will have complete commonality with the Superjet100 and would be limited for 20% more seats. We are also looking at different versions including corporate and cargo based on the 95-seat platform.”

Any trade off on a stretched version will be in range at about 1,600 nm said Senior Vice President Paolo Revelli-Beaumount at RAA. He also reported interest in Latin America and Africa but did not expect such negotiations to materialize much before the beginning of next year. In addition, he announced the company was planning a worldwide demonstration tour next year.

Regional executive reported being impressed with the mature developed of its support network. “We want to be a clear leader on this front,” said Franzoni, who reported a 20-facility network of repair stations was already in place worldwide with plans to increase that by year-end. It is already negotiating for sites in Latin America. “We want our customers to be sure they will have the best possible logistical and maintenance support from Day 1.” He expected to announce the addition of more facilities at Paris.

Franzoni and Revelli-Beaumount provided a much more relaxed, confident and comfortable atmosphere compared to their Russian counterparts who were on hand at the show. Only its second appearance at RAA, Franzoni said the company has made a lot of progress since last year both on company organization as well as on the program with a third aircraft joining the test program during Paris and a fourth set to join the formation in the fall.

“We now have 160 employees of 15 different nationalities, only a quarter of which are based in Venice,” he said. “The rest are in Moscow, Toulouse and Washington, DC. It is also looking at offices in Beijing. The data we’ve collected during test flights is quite encouraging and validate our expectations that the Superjet will offer significant cost advantages with proven technologies that means little risk for the customer compared to the new technology represented by the [Pratt & Whitney] PurePower Geared Turbo Fan. It is the only new 100 seater to enter the market. We are taking advantage of what the Russians can do best – that is in the area of aerodynamics and will have two to three weeks of fuel consumption data to report at Paris. What we are looking for is a double digit improvement over the ERJ 190 and CRJ 900 with their GE engines. We are now seeing something about 10-12% better fuel consumption.”

It is promising a 30-35% margin on ICAO-CAEP4 NOx requirements with PowerJets Sa146 and a 10% benefit vs GE’s CF34s powering the CRJs and ERJs. The engine – developed in partnership with Snecma and using CFM International technology – promises a 13,000-17,000 lb thrust which means it will power both the SSR100 and 300 as well as a 20% reduction in parts. The engine is in the last testing stages. Updates on both the SuperJet and PowerJet programs will come next week.

Superjet International reported 98 firm order as a three-aircraft test program continues for first Russian, and then, EASA certification. Even in its domestic market it remains vulnerable as the economic and fuel crises conspired to cause a complete restructuring of its airline industry. Indeed, 21 aircraft of its order book, ordered by alliance partners AirUnion and Dalavia have taken a dive and the company hopes those delivery positions will be placed at other Russian carriers. Even if not, it certainly frees up delivery positions for Western sales since one of the criticisms to the program is that the domestic market will take up all its capacity, leaving potential Western partners waiting for the longer delivery times. Even so, production plans have been cut back with the disastrous economy, slashed by more than two thirds to about 70 aircraft per year in both Russia and Italy, with a target of three aircraft per month by 2012. Franzoni, however, clarified that while there will be but a single production facility there will be two delivery centers.

At RAA, it was clear Superjet was, like Bombardier, eyeing the mainline market and leaning toward its larger bird. Indeed, while boasting of a larger cabin cross section than either the Bombardier CRJs or Embraer ERJs, it noted the cross section was comparable to the 737 and A318. Range from Atlanta takes in most of Canada out to Denver for the SSJ100 and is transcontinental for the its extended range version. “The 100-seat RJs have 10% more costs and 139-seat narrow-body is 15% higher,” said Franzoni. “We will have a 30-25% advantage on emissions and noise.

At RAA, it reported 13 serial aircraft in production and a two-aircraft test program which has completed 160 flights, with a third aircraft since joining the program. The natural icing tests have been completed, he noted, adding Russian certification rules were more stringent than those in the west.

Mitsubishi Aircraft Company
Still new to Paris and early in its program, Mitsubishi will do as it did at RAA, gather intelligence about the 5,000-aircraft market it sees for its two Mitsubishi Regional Jet variants which is expects to conquer with one-third of the market, according to Executive Vice President Junichi Miyakawa, who briefed Aviation Today’s Daily Brief at RAA. With first flight scheduled for 2011 using Pratt’s PurePower GTF, Mitsubishi Aircraft Company will be touting its experience in worldwide aircraft programs including the composite technology for the Boeing 787 wing.

It has an order from All Nippon Arlines for 25 MRJs including 15 firm and 10 options but unlike Bombardier and Sukhoi it is continuing its original focus on the lower regional jet market eyeing the large market its expects as 50 seat regional jets continue to be grounded or reach their life limits for regional airline service.

The new technolgies it is offering include a composite wing and empennage, advanced CFD design and low noise airframe, what it, and others, call a game-changing engine, its purpose-developed 3D Net seat, which will impress Paris attendees just as it did RAA participants.

Touting itself as the greenest aircraft in its class, Miyakawa cited a 50% advantage in Nox to ICAO CAEP/6 requirements compared to the CRJ 900 and the ERJ 190 with the CF34-8 and CF34-10 engines, respectively. Its advantage in smoke is 90% and HC is 85%. It boasts a 15.6 improvement in noise on the MRJ70 versus its competition and a 17.4 improvement for the MRJ90. It also boasts a 20% reduction in fuel consumption versus is competitors. It, too, said it has the most spacious cabin room and shows a comparison on its cabin mockup which will be displayed at Paris. It says it will have mainline jet comfort with four abreast as that of the eight-abreast configuration of the 787 in relations to the distance between passengers. In addition, it boasts a wider seat pitch.

The newest entrant into the regional jet field will hold media briefings on Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:30 and 4:30, respectively. It will update its MRJ program on Tuesday and unveil its cabin mock-up as well as a 3D demonstration video of the MRJ and speak with executives from MJET on Wednesday.

Embraer (Chalet will be located at 168-169, Row B)
With a complete stable of regional/mainline jets and a growing stable of business jets, is hefty competition for Bombardier even as it sits out the next generation for awhile. During the centennial event, Embraer will promote its entire range of products for the Commercial Aviation and the Defense markets.

Today, Embraer is on the brink of delivering its 600th E-Jet set for the third quarter and just  a year after the 400th was delivered to Republic Airlines in the U.S. and shortly after the 500th was delivered to Air France subsidiary Regional in December. As with Bombardier and SuperJet, Embrear is also eyeing the mainline/low cost market and has made strides with orders and operations at low-cost airlines in the U.S., Europe and South America including JetBlue Airways, the U.S., Flybe, in the UK, NIKI in Austria, and Azul in Brazil, use the E-Jets from Embraer to meet larger cities where aircraft are not as economical. Mainline customers include Air Canada, Finnair and US Airways. Since the first commercial flight in March 2004, more than 110 million passengers flew in the Embraer E-Jets.

"Deliver 600 E-Jets only five years after entry into service of the first ERJ 170 represents an enormous achievement for Embraer and is a milestone reached by only a few programs in the history of aviation. The rapid expansion of the world fleet to 52 companies air in 34 countries shows that the philosophy of adjusting the capacity of the aircraft demand, or rightsizing, introduced by our E-Jets family has applications truly global, "said Mauro Kern, executive vice-president for commercial aviation.

Embraer's market analysis indicates customers use their E-Jets in four main applications: adjustment of aircraft capacity to demand on routes operated by
narrowbody aircraft (53%), natural growth in demand on routes operated by smaller aircraft (24%), opening of new markets (17%) and direct substitution of aircraft of similar size (6%).

The E-Jets also operate in extreme environmental conditions, from the cold of the Arctic Finland until the temperature of the hot deserts of Saudi Arabia and northern Australia, fly, respectively, with business Finnair, Saudi Arabian and Airnorth. Some 900 units have been ordered worldwide.

Its ERJ 145, which entered service in 1996, program has clocked more than 15 million hours of flight with an average completion rate of 99.7% with nearly 900 units in service. The family has flown 450 million passengers. On March 31, 2009, the ERJ 145 and the E-Jets families had delivered 1,397 commercial jets to 65 airlines in 40 countries, out of a total of 1,790 firm orders and 842 options.

Historical Paris
Even as the show itself highlights its centennial, Airbus is celebrating its 40th anniversary at the show as is Embraer and the two manufacturers have come a long way in that time. While Airbus and Boeing trade places for the lead in mainline aircraft sales, Embraer does the same with Bombardier for regional airliners. Even so, both Airbus and Embraer have much to be proud of against Bombardier and Boeing which date back to the dawn of aviation.

With such manufacturers as ATR, Saab, and de Havilland, Embraer has helped build a new aviation segment – the regional airline marketplace, beginning with its 19-seat offering in the early 1970s of the Bandeirante, which lives up to its Pioneer name. In 1968, the twin-engine Bandeirante turboprop flew, originally carrying nine passengers and developed by CTA in line with the requirements of the IPD-6504 Program of the Aeronautics Ministry. Under the leadership of then-CTA Director Colonel Paulo Victor da Silva, and Major Ozires Silva, the first Director-Superintendent of Embraer, the project gathered momentum, resulting in the founding of the Company, a year later.

In Brazil, celebrations included a series of local activities including the planting of 40 trees at each of its six facilities, planted by the 40 employees who have been with the company the longest. In addition, the Juarez Wanderley High School, created and maintained by the Embraer Education and Research Institute, undertook a similar initiative. It also held a contest for a new livery for a ERJ !90 using the 40th anniversary theme which will be followed next month by another contest designed for the children of Embraer employees who will be asked to express their vision for aircraft of the future. The company is capping off celebrations with a nationwide tour of the history of its company and the inauguration of an Embraer Historical Center portal affording Internet users the ability to navigate the company’s history.

In October, with the support of the Embraer Education and Research Institute and the City of São José dos Campos, the Embraer Miniglider Championship will be held, focusing on public school students, through middle school in the cities where Embraer has industrial plants.

Embraer is also presenting aircraft that are no longer in production, duly restored, as it did, in 2008, with the second prototype of the Bandeirante airplane, the first produced by the company. The plan is to promote the history of the Brazilian aeronautics industry and make it known to the general public, through exhibits in aerospace museums around Brazil. Two prototypes of the CBA 123 aircraft, designed in the early 1990s as a new-generation 19-seat aircraft program which never got off the ground, were very carefully restored by Embraer, in a partnership with the National Industrial Apprenticeship Service (Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Industrial – SENAI) unit in São José dos Campos. The first airplane is ready and was presented in May, and the second is in the final recuperation phase, which should be concluded in August.

Embraer’s origin dates back to the 1940s, when the Brazilian government began structuring the bases of the modern aeronautics industry in Brazil. First, the Aeronautics Technical Center (Centro Técnico de Aeronáutica) – now called the Aerospace Technology General Command (Comando-Geral de Tecnologia Aeroespacial – CTA), was organized, in 1946, followed by the founding of the Aeronautics Technological Institute (Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica – ITA), in 1950, both of which are located in the city of São José dos Campos, in outstate São Paulo, Brazil.