A new study by the Center for Aviation and Aerospace Leadership (CAAL) at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University predicts that the aerospace industry will recover in 2010 – and the rate of recovery could be relatively quick.

In fact, the study, titled the Aerospace Economic Report and Outlook for 2010 (the AERO 2010 Report), goes even further by suggesting that the recovery in aerospace manufacturing may help lead the U.S. economy out of the recession.

“It may take some time to return to the pre-recession levels of output and employment in our economy, but we anticipate that the rate of growth in aerospace manufacturing will be better than other sectors,” said Dr. Saul “Sonny” Barr, a senior aerospace economist at CAAL and primary author of the study.

However, the study also revealed a subtle but ominous trend. More specifically, the data indicates that there is a strong long-term trend toward the importation of aerospace components and parts. Even though the United States continues to lead the world in the export of assembled aircraft, it is clear that a growing percentage of the components that go into the assembled aircraft are being produced overseas.

“The vast network of U.S. manufacturers that are so critical to the production and support of both civilian and military aerospace products may be at risk if this trend continues,” said retired USAF Brig. Gen. Robert Mansfield, an aerospace executive in residence at Embry-Riddle and co-author of the study.

Dr. Robert Materna, director of CAAL, echoed Mansfield’s concern and notes that the U.S. aerospace industry is unique because it plays a critical role in our economy as well as our national defense.

Ramon Lopez also serves as editor-in-chief of Air Safety Week; he has been covering air safety for more than three decades (rlopez@accessintel.com).

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