Lengthy airline delays have doubled since1990 and will get worse as the U.S. economy recovers, according to a recently released Brookings Institution report.

On-time performance has improved lately because airlines have cut capacity during the recession. But as the economy recovers, so will air travel, meaning more delays beginning in 2010.

"The current economic recession caused carriers to reduce flight levels, which then improved on-time performance in the immediate term. However, the return of economic growth will resume the boost in travelers, a concomitant decline in on-time performance, and the hyper-concentration of U.S. air travel within major metropolitan areas and among flights traveling short distances.

"To ensure that the commercial aviation system runs efficiently while simultaneously improving its environmental record, policymakers must focus aviation and other modal investments on the metropolitan hubs and short-haul corridors, thus strengthening the performance of the our nation's major economic centers, the Brookings Institution report recommended.

The researchers blamed the problem on heavy concentrations of short trips between major U.S. cities and an antiquated air traffic control system.

They said travelers should utilize high-speed rail service instead of short flights. They also recommended letting busy airports charge higher fees on rush-hour flights, pressuring airlines to spread their flights more evenly through the day. The Reagan administration said slot auctions would reduce traffic at Kennedy International and LaGuardia in New York and Newark Liberty. But U.S. air carriers blocked a plan to auction takeoff and landing slots at the congested New York area airports.

The researchers found New York to be the worst metro area in the country for late flights.

They found most delays concentrated in 26 cities, including New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta and San Francisco. The researchers blamed much of the flight delays on the growing number of short flights between big U.S. cities.

The analysis of commercial air travel patterns between 1990 and 2009 revealed that:

• Air passenger travel in the United States experienced its first annualized drop in September 2008 since the tragedy of September 11, 2001, and the decline has continued through March 2009. Strong economic growth helped American airports increase their passenger and flight levels by over 60 percent from 1990 to 2008, tripling population growth. However, residents are traveling less since the current economic downturn, producing sustained reductions in passengers and flights since September 2008 and June 2008, respectively.
• Nearly 99 percent of all U.S. air passengers arrive or depart from one of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, with the vast majority of travel concentrated in 26 metropolitan hubs. Between April 2008 and March 2009, 26 metropolitan areas captured nearly three-quarters of all domestic travelers, while 20 of these metros landed 94 percent of all international passengers. These extreme shares make these metropolitan hubs the critical links in the nation's aviation system and reinforce their role as major centers of tourism and commerce.
• Half of the country's flights are routes of less than 500 miles, and the busiest corridors travel between the metropolitan hubs
• Corridors of no more than 500 miles constituted half of all flights and carried 30 percent of all passengers in the most recent twelve month period starting April 2008. In fact, the metro Los Angeles/San Francisco corridor, stretching 347 miles, is the second busiest corridor in the country. Meanwhile, the most popular corridors operated between the 26 metropolitan hubs.
• The 26 metropolitan hubs and other large metropolitan areas host a concentration of national delays--and the situation is worsening over time. The concentration within the 100 largest metropolitan areas was especially troubling with congestion-related delays as well as those lasting over two hours. Within the 26 domestic hubs, six experienced worse- than-average delays for both arrivals and departures: New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

The report concluded that current federal transportation policies "are out of sync with the primary sources of our nation's passengers and delays--the largest metropolitan areas. If the nation's air travel network is a metropolitan network, then it is these hubs that fuel--and slow--the entire system."

The report said that only 20 percent of the $1.3 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) funds is provided to the 26 flight-delayed cities. Furthermore, only 22 percent of the $2.6 billion in FY2009 Airport Improvement Program (AIP) funding went to these 26 metropolitan areas.

"Equally troubling is that many of the airports awarded funding should not have qualified due to inadequate credentials, specifically poor economic credentials and history of grant management problems. Sending a majority of this federal funding to airports that constitute a small minority of all passenger trips only serves to intensify the congestion- related pressures the country's aviation system already experiences," the report concluded.

The researchers also believe that "the air traffic control system seems ill-equipped to meet the "return to normal" of increased passenger travel, further delays, and overall weaker on-time performance of the aviation system once the economy rebounds."

They said NextGen implementation won't come in time to head off the additional flight delays starting next year.

"The federal government most recently recognized the inadequacies of its air traffic control system in 2001 and, in response, proposed a major new system known as NextGen. Unfortunately, this system has been wrought with implementation problems and, according to the most recent estimates, is still at least three to nine years from midterm implementation. There is little question that the economic recovery will arrive before NextGen, meaning the country will continue to rely on its current air traffic control system and any near-term infrastructure upgrades," the report states.

The Brookings Institution report included three recommendations.

• Empower the most congested metropolitan areas to enact congestion mitigation policies. One potential option cited was congestion pricing. "Another alternative is complete airport privatization, which empowers private-sector ownership to maximize efficiencies and provide more immediate operational adjustments," the report stated. The federal government should create an independent commission to address the congestion issues.
• Utilize aviation statistics to prioritize specific high-speed rail investments.
• Accelerate deployment of new technologies and investments to expand operational capacities in the medium term. "The federal government must plan ahead and begin to accelerate deployment of new technologies and investments to expand operational capacities. Since midterm implementation of NextGen is years away due to poor organization and questionable structure, the federal government must focus on near-term upgrades to the country's critical hubs," said the report.

The report noted that "the FAA recently formed a task force through RTCA, a non-profit organization, to also help identify the technologies available now that can increase capacity in the next few years. They delivered their initial results in September 2009. The federal government should consider these recommendations and we underscore their focus on the key metropolitan areas in the system.

"This includes not just current bottlenecks, which the task force identified, but also metropolitan areas with looming bottlenecks. The FAA has already reported that even after current planned improvements are made across the country, some of the nation's 35 busiest airports will still need new capacity," it added.