Brazilian manufacturer Embraer is studying its options for developing one or two new airliner families, as well as considering how best to improve its current range of its ERJ 170 and 190 E-jets.

With Canada's Bombardier Aerospace, it is growing from being a producer of regional jets and turboprops into one making 100-seaters that could be developed further to compete directly against major commercial jetliner manufacturers Airbus and Boeing.

In recent remarks alongside its annual figures for Fy2008 and in subsequent interview with Aviation Today Daily Brief (ATDB), Embraer has revealed more of its forward thinking while it also grapples with the challenges of selling aircraft and retaining customers during the latest worldwide economic recession. The company is conducting three lines of study: possible new-generation turboprops that would compete in the future market for ATR72 and Bombardier Dash 8-300/400 class aircraft, a possible new narrow body to accommodate more than 100 passengers and address the Airbus A318 and Boeing 737-600 sectors and possibly the proposed Bombardier C Series.

Embraer Africa, Europe and Middle East Airline Market Vice-President Jose Luis Molina said the company is "always" analyzing both short- and long-term markets to investigate carrier requirements. "There are opportunities for turboprops and bigger and smaller jets," he told ATDB, while in London with the E190 regional-jet that has been conducting noise and steep-approach trials at London City Airport. On the question of available engines for any turboprop design to follow on from the company's successful EMB110 Bandeirante and EMB120 Brasilia, Molina expects to use a new powerplant. "There's no sense in developing a new [aircraft] model around the current [engine] technology."

Embraer Market Intelligence Vice-President Luiz Sergio Chiessi sees the prospective market for a new-generation regional turboprop as lying "mainly in Europe," where a major consideration for operators is the region's emissions trading system as well as the future cost of fuel. "In the long term we do not expect to see the price of oil go back to almost $150, but by 2014-15 it could reach $80-90. With [these] environmental and fuel pressures we do see a role for turboprops."

Accordingly, Embraer is "devoting attention" to that market and studying the potential for a project on which it would expect to make a decision "in one to two years," Chiessi told ATDB. A survey of airlines last year revealed potential demand for two sizes of aircraft: about 60-80 and around 100 seats. He said carriers are not looking for smaller aircraft, nor one to accommodate 150 passengers.

Given better turboprop aircraft economics over shorter ranges where they are more efficient than turbojets while suffering little penalty for their lower average cruise speeds, Chiessi said the "crossover" point comes at 300-350 mile sectors "even when oil is $80 a barrel." Beyond this range turboprop total operating costs become too high because "there is less production, but more [airframe] and crew time."

Chiessi echoed Molina's remarks about propulsion requirements: "Engine technology is very important and we are in discussion with manufacturers all the time. They see no step change beyond core improvements" arising from turbofan developments.

On the subject of a possible new Embraer narrow body design in the 100-150-seat class, Chiessi said that current ERJ 190 stakeholders are "part of the equation." The Brazilian company expects Airbus and Boeing to concentrate future product-development work on aircraft with 150+ passengers.

An Embraer single-aisle design almost certainly would require a new wider cabin cross-section than that employed on the ERJ 170 and ERJ 190 series, according to Chiessi. "A hundred and fifty passengers in four-abreast is probably not workable: it would take too long to board and disembark passengers and to clean the cabin between flights. So, five- or six-abreast is more suitable.

Chiessi said that "big improvements" would be available in engines by the end of the next decade, suggesting new Airbus and Boeing designs might be introduced by 2019 or 2020. He is sure that the best opportunity lies in open-rotor technology rather than in the area of geared turbofans (GTFs) to which its regional-jet competitor has nailed its colors. Open rotor is the way to go "if General Electric and Rolls-Royce can solve noise and maintenance-cost problems: that is the next-generation opportunity."

He used the words "courageous" and "dangerous" to describe the Canadian manufacturer's committment to Pratt & Whitney's PurePower (formerly known as the geared turbo fan or GTF) to launch the C Series with such technology. "It would be wiser to wait to understand if open-rotor will provide a better solution with its very much higher bypass ratios. The GTF may be available earlier, but Bombardier will miss out on better performance if open-rotor proves a good design." He said Embraer has the time to decide on what future engine technology to pursue.

Finally, Embraer is also looking at product improvements for the current E-jets. "We are studying areas of opportunity to improve the passenger experience and operating costs," said Chiessi. "Meanwhile, we have a lot of ERJ 170s and ERJ 190s to build and deliver." (At the end of 2008, backlog stood at 876 firm orders, with options let on 810 aircraft; Chiessi conceded that there have been subsequent delivery deferrals, but claimed Embraer has had no order cancellations in 2009.)

Chiessi acknowledged that Embraer has already completed some "pre-concept" studies on all three areas of possible product development. Asked about the likely degree of improved performance required over contemporary equipment, he told ATDB: "Any new area for a future project requires estimating the basic specification and applying very aggressive figures to get the best result."

For example, he said there is "not much [advance] available in aerodynamics. There is some in materials and engines," and all such exercises put a premium on weight, cost, and drag. Asked about priorities, Chiessi said that Embraer cannot go ahead in all the areas it is studying: "We have to decide which one or two out of three [to pursue]."