Domestic Travel Recovery in 2011

It won’t be until 2011 that domestic travel will return to 2006 levels, according to Boston-based Global Insight Inc. While talking mostly about commercial aviation, the report has implications for business aviation as well.

The company said U.S. domestic person trips are expected to total as much as 573 million in the third quarter of this year, up from 566 million in the third quarter of 2007. It expects domestic travel to be up 0.5 percent this year for leisure travelers, which is more than offset by a four percent decline in business travel.

Global Insights pegs leisure travel recovery to the second half of next year while business travel will now show recovery until the first half of 2010. Even so, the company said that domestic travel will not recover to 2006 trip levels until 2011.

The company joined with D.K. Shifflet & Associates in producing is latest U.S. Travel Insights report, forecasting leisure and business travel, visitor spending, travel inflation and international arrivals.

It forecast that the global economic troubles will force both sectors to continue to decline next year. International arrivals, threatened by increasing government and security red tape, is expected to exceed 60 million this year, up more than seven percent from last year. The company expects such traffic to remain strong over the next three years.