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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Asking Prices for Aircraft Continue to Show Optimism

Despite the surfeit of adverse news, there continues to be trading activity such that the market is far from illiquid, contrasting perhaps with the months immediately following September 2001.

A 1991 A300-600 is being advertised for $11 million, which is nearly double the assumed value. The A300-600 is facing considerable pressures not least because the recession has meant that the -600R has become more favored as a freighter conversion candidate – at least when the cargo market stages a recovery. However, even the -600R production freighters are under pressure as indicated by an advert asking only $20 million for a 2006 vintage -600RF. The value of such an aircraft is more than $45 million. A 1990 A320 with V2500-A1 engines and 46,700 hours is being advertised for $9.95 million which compares favorably with current market values. Another 1990 A320 is being advertised for only $7.5 million which represents something of a bargain, particularly if some of the values being attributed to B737 Classics are to be used as a basis for comparison. A 1990 A320 is on the market at $9 million. A 1989 A320 is on the market for $6.3 million with a 1990 vintage example priced at $6.5 million. However, at the other end of the scale a new A320 is being advertised for $44.5 million. This compares with market values of nearer $40 million. A price of $44.5 million perhaps reflects the market conditions of a year ago but not today. Another seller is advertising a new A320 for $58 million, representing a sizeable premium over the considered value.

A 2005 and a 2006 A321 are being advertised for $42 million, which is higher than current values but at least provides a credible starting point for discussions which will see an eventual much lower sale price. A new A340-300 is being advertised for sale which is something of an achievement in view of none being built this year. Priced at $147 million, this is some $50 million more than any reasonable value should a 2009 example even be available. A 1992 A340-200 in VIP configuration has an asking price of $125 million. For the larger VIP aircraft, pricing can vary considerably. Finally for Airbus, a new A380 is being advertised for $210 million, a value which is not too far distant from assessed values. However, with A380 deliveries already allocated for 2009 and Airbus struggling to build those already on order, the source of such a new aircraft is difficult to determine. The aircraft is being advertised as a “brand new factory aircraft in green condition. Aircraft price reduced for quick closing”. An aircraft in green condition will require another $15-20 million for outfitting and considerably more if incorporating a VVIP interior making for a high price.

The values of the B737 Classic have experienced a considerable fall in this recession. Two 1997 -300s are being advertised for $9.3 million which is perhaps on the high side but not too distant, particularly as it is equipped with -3C1 engines which may be fresh from a shop visit. A 2004 B737-700 is being advertised for $29.5 million which is perhaps slightly higher than might be expected but is reasonable as a starting point for negotiations. Similarly, a 2007 B737-700 is being advertised for $34.995 million. Featuring winglets and 5,800 hours, the price is a good asking price but values are perhaps ten percent lower. A 2001 B737-800 has an asking price of $37 million which is considerably higher than the current value which is some $7-8 million lower. More reasonable is an asking price of $31.5 million for a 2006 -800 with 20,000 hours. Indeed, this price seems to be particularly attractive. A 2009 -800 is being advertised for $42.5 million which has a close correlation with the current market value. A 2005 -800 with 12,000 hours and -7B26 engines has an asking price of $33.5 million which again compares favorably with current market values. Not so favorable are asking prices in excess of $6 million for B747-200Bs though in terms of square footage the price is below that of real estate.
A 1985 B747-300 is priced at $9.995 million which is considerably in excess of current values while a 1988 aircraft is priced at $7.5 million. A 1992 B747-400, powered by PW4056 and with 66,000 hours, has a price of $33 million which is perhaps slightly optimistic in today’s market. A 1991 B757 has a price of $11.9 million which is very close to current market values as is a similar vintage -200ER priced at $13.5 million. Conversely, a 1998 -200ER has an asking price of $15.5 million which is a reasonable figure. A number of B767-200ERs are being advertised including a 1985 example at $9.7 million; a 1986 at $6 million, and 1986 at $ 8million – all higher than might be expected. Two 1989 -300ERs are on the market, one priced at $10 million and the other at $8.8 million. In view of younger B757s having higher asking prices, these -300ERs represent a sizeable discount. A 1990 -300ER has a price of $15 million which is more in line with values although it does have 86,000 hours. A 1993 -300ER is priced at $22 million - in line with expectations. Two 2000 build -300ERs are being advertised at $59.5 million and $65 million respectively which is at least 50 percent higher than current values.