Introduction of large-scale use of composites materials in production of new large aircraft such as the soon-to-fly Boeing 787 means that their application to aerospace manufacturing will double by the middle of next decade and grow by almost 150% in the next decade. Accordingly, it might seem that the knell is about to sound for traditional metals, especially aluminum and its related alloys that today account for the largest share of raw materials consumption in the global industry.

Not so. Stockholders in companies whose fortunes depend on providing such latter "old-fashioned" supplies need not rush out to sell their shares. "Aluminum will remain a growth market," says Kevin Michaels, principal of aerospace management consultancy AeroStrategy. Statistics he gave to the recent American Metals Market aerospace materials conference in Pittsburgh this month suggest that, even after accounting for slight decline in demand eight to ten years from now, aluminum's "market share" likely will fall only a couple of points, from 45% to about 43%.

Despite a 13% fall in aerospace requirements for aluminum alloys in the past three years raw materials suppliers can look forward to a steady increase in demand over the coming eight or so years. Aircraft manufacturers are currently working to manage a short-term downturn in delivery requirements, but have record order backlogs built up since the middle of this decade.

Overall, global aerospace manufacturing consumes some 950 million pounds (the standard measure) of raw materials every year, a weight that will increase by about 50% in the coming decade. Aerospace requirements for traditional metal stock mostly are suffering a downturn in the current recession, ahead of a predicted general increase that will become established after next year when suppliers of aluminum, steel and other raw materials also will see strong growth through the next decade.

The main contributor to these current 'lean' years for providers of traditional materials is the global airline industry. Commercial airliners account for some 68% of all aerospace raw materials, and many operators are deferring (or occasionally cancelling) orders placed in preceding 'fat' years. Manufacture of turbine-engine, general-aviation (GA) products, including business-jets, will experience the steepest decline in production, say AeroStrategy analysts.

Already this year GA manufacturers have announced 20-30% production cutbacks that will see deliveries fall before growing steadily after 2012. GA products consume about 13% of aerospace raw materials, as do military fixed-wing aircraft. Civil and military rotorcraft together account for 6% of materials use. The after-market business represents the remaining 7% of demand.

Use of composites (such as carbon- and glass-fiber) will see the highest growth among leading aerospace raw materials, increasing at almost 10% a year, well ahead of aluminum's 3.7% compound annual growth during 2009-19. Second only to composites growth is titanium at 8.5%/year. Use of other leading metals will appreciate by less than 3% annually, says the consultant.

The relatively very small use of composites today, just 4% of the aerospace market, means that even with the high growth in applications that share will still be below 8% by 2019. Carbon-fiber will continue to be the most popular composites material, with suppliers being asked to provide a 300% increase during the coming ten years (while period requirements for glass-fiber will increase only about 50%); demand will grow from about 15 million pounds in 2007 to over 60 million pounds in 2019.

The latter years of the next decade likely will see a cyclic reduction in aerospace production raw materials demand for steel and light alloys, while that for nickel alloys and composites materials will continue to rise through 2020 and beyond, according to Michaels. Requirements for nickel alloys will see a 12% decline over two or three years during 2008-10, trailing the similar aluminum trend by about 12 months. The industry has been buying about 115 million pounds a year, but this is expected to have fallen to about 100 million pounds next year with, again, excess inventory in the chain between mill and production line.

A steep recovery in aerospace purchasing of nickel by 2012 is expected to herald a stable period that will see a slight dip around 2018 followed by increase to around 140 million pounds a year by 2019 (and perhaps beyond). Nickel suppliers face less-cyclic demand from the industry since about 15% of overall requirements come from the after-market, according to AeroStrategy.

Acquisition of steel stock is about half the level of demand for aluminum supplies and is slightly less cyclic. There will be just a 10% downturn over three or four years during 2007-10 and then a more-steady increase through 2017. Steel suppliers have provided about 240 million pounds a year, which is expected to decline to 215 million pounds next year. After recovering to more than 250 million pounds by 2012, purchasing of steel will rise to about 300 million pounds/year by 2017, concludes Michaels.

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