International air travel improved in January, says the International Air Transport Association (IATA). January's demand was up 6.4 percent from a year earlier, with load factors of 75.9 percent, up from 72.2 percent in January 2009. U.S. air carriers saw passenger demand rise 2.1 percent from a year earlier.

International cargo demand showed a 28.3 percent improvement with only a 3.7 percent increase in capacity. This pushed the cargo load factor to 49.6 percent, which is a step-change from the 40 percent recorded in January 2009.

The large increases in year-on-year comparisons reflect a steady improvement from the precipitous fall in demand that characterized the early part of 2009 rather than a dramatic improvement in January. Compared to December 2009, and adjusting for seasonal variations, passenger demand grew by 0.5 percent while air freight volumes increased by three percent.

“Airlines have lost 2-3 years of growth. Demand is moving in the right direction. The three percent increase in freight volumes from December to January is particularly encouraging. We can start to see the future with some cautious optimism, but better volumes do not necessarily mean better profits. Passenger yields are still 15 percent below peak. And we expect 2010 losses to be $5.6 billion,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general and CEO.

There are large geographical differences in the improvements, noted IATA. The strongest upturns have been seen in markets where economic recovery from the recession has been strongest—Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.

Compared to the low point in the cycle (February 2009) international passenger traffic is up 8.6 percent. IATA said the market has not yet recovered from the losses of 2008 and early 2009. Demand must improve by a further two percent to return to the peak levels of early 2008.

Asia Pacific carriers experienced a 6.5 percent increase in demand compared to the previous year. Middle Eastern carriers grew throughout the recession. Growth accelerated to 23.6 percent in January. Latin American carriers saw demand increase by 11 percent in January on the back of a strong regional economy. And African carriers recorded a 6.3 percent improvement in January, assisted by robust regional economic activity.

Ramon Lopez also serves as editor-in-chief of Air Safety Week; he has been covering air safety for more than three decades (rlopez@accessintel.com).

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