If VLJs are removed from forecasts for business jets, the growth rate for the market would be relatively flat between now and 2016, according to Raymond Jaworowski, senior aerospace analyst for Forecast International, who analyzed the business jet market during AviationToday.com’s latest webinar – An Inside Look at the Business Jet Boom, aired June 28 and archived on the company’s web site.
“The growth trend is largely due to VLJs who have a high market in terms of units but not in value,” he said, adding he expects the business cycle to soften in 2010 and 2011, impacting business jet sales until it picks up again in 2013. “The growth is now 60 percent, which may sound like a lot but is nothing like the 200 percent growth rate experienced between the mid ‘90s and 2001. The growth of corporate profits tracks closely with business jet growth with fractionals playing a more significant role. Today they account for 12 percent to 15 percent of sales but by 2016 they will be 20 percent of annual deliveries.” The question remains how fast manufacturers will increase production and how many customers will convert to firm orders.
His prediction for VLJs is more conservative than VLJ manufacturers but still accounts for significant growth. There will be a jump in deliveries in 2008 and 2009 when production of the Cessna Mustang and Eclipse 500 hit their stride and then again in 2009 which will see the first full year of production for the Diamond D-Jet and the Embraer Phenom.
To hear the webinar and review the forecast charts click here.