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Friday, January 11, 2008

Teal Report Suggests Flat RJ Market

Despite the possibility of three new entrant aircraft programs from Japan, China and Russia, the Teal Group indicated that the growth of the regional jet market place has flattened and will remain so unless some catalyst changes regional/network dynamics.
“Although the market has stopped shrinking, the most likely forecast scenario offers a flat market, a far cry from the great days of 1997-2001,when the industry went from $4.5 billion in deliveries to $7.7 billion in deliveries,” said Teal Group Vice President, Analysis Richard Aboulafia. “The arrival of Embraer’s ERJ 190 helped stabilized the market at a plateau of around $7 billion in annual deliveries (with a possible up-side if the 100-seat market finally takes off, or if prop demand returns in the North America market). We also expect Bombardier to upgrade its CRJ700/900 family, following on to its launched CRJ 1000 growth derivative. This will help maintain demand for Bombardier’s RJ products as Embraer’s new family grows in popularity.”
World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing, suggests that new entrant aircraft – the AVIC I's ARJ 21, Japan Aircraft Development Corporation (JADC)”s 80/110-seat YS-X regional jet, and the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 – would be far better off tapping into the lucrative aircraft support, subcontract and maintenance markets because they are entering an already competitive regional aircraft market that is no longer growing. He pointed out only one new manufacturer – Embraer – has achieved success the aircraft manufacturing sector in over 40 years. For a complete analysis see the next issue of Regional Aviation News. For a copy of the entire report click here.
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