Large Aircraft up in BBD’s Latest Forecast

Indianapolis, IN – Demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft is expected to reach approximately 12,900 new aircraft in the next decade and 17,500 in the 20-year period from 2008 to 2027, an increase in demand from last year's forecast, according to Bombardier's Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast released at the Regional Airline Association meeting in Indianapolis. Forecasted demand is valued at approximately $528 billion (i) The Bombardier forecast differs from Embraer’s recently released forecast which begins at 30 seats and tops out at 120 seats. Embraer sees a need for nearly 7,500 aircraft in the 30- to 120-seat market through 2027, the vast majority of which would be in the 60- to 120-seat segment. Related Story www.aviationtoday.com/ran/categories/commercial/21242.html
The trend towards larger aircraft, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices will reinforce operators' requirement for modern aircraft with low operating costs, said the company, which added the current run up in fuel drove its revised forecast, especially for turboprops which is expected to increase by 400 units for a total of 2,300 aircraft during the period, most of which will be in the larger aircraft. The forecast reflects the shift in demand to larger commercial aircraft with demand expected to reach approximately 6,100 in the 60- to 90-seat segment and another 6,300 in the 100- to 149-seat segment targeted by the company’s proposed CSeries expected to be launched later this year. Currently, there are 5,600 aircraft in service in that segment. Trung Ngo, vice president marketing and communications or the newly launched Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Company, indicated that, with no new offerings in the 100+-seat, single-aisle market, the CSeries will address the pent up demand in the market.
In the smaller market of 20 to 59 seats, Bombardier only expects 500 deliveries during the forecast dropping the fleet to 1,500, including retirements from the current total of 3,500. Ngo indicated that while it has not plans to launch a small turboprop or jet, most will have to be replaced during the forecast period and the company is studying the market.