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Monday, February 10, 2014

Boeing Predicts $1.9T Commercial Market for Asia Pacific

Woodrow Bellamy III 

[Aviation Today February 10, 2014] Boeing is forecasting commercial airline demand in the Asia Pacific region to account for 36 percent of the world's new aircraft deliveries over the next two decades for 12,820 new aircraft valued at $1.9 trillion.  
Singapore Airlines' regional subsidiary SilkAir recently began its transition to an all-Boeing fleet, a trend Boeing helps will continue in the growing Asia Pacific market. Photo, courtesy of Boeing.
The world's largest airframe manufacturer announced its Asia Pacific forecast before the opening of the Singapore Airshow, Asia's largest aviation industry exhibition. According to the forecast, nearly 70 percent of new aircraft delivered to the region will be single aisle jets such as Boeing's 737 family and the rival Airbus A320 family.  
By 2032, Boeing expects the Asia Pacific fleet of single aisle aircraft will grow from 3,470, recorded in 2012, to 10,350. In contrast the company only expects the region's large wide body fleet to grow from 330 to 350 over the next 20 years. 
Demand in Asia is driven by increased passenger demand in the region. Through 2032, the Asia Pacific region will account for nearly half of the world's air traffic growth, says Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing. That air traffic growth will require airlines in the region such as Singapore Airlines, Japan Airlines and Air China to purchase more fuel efficient aircraft to reduce operating costs and ensure that their fleets feature the latest avionics to comply with future airspace mandates. 
The outlook from Boeing reflects a similar projection expressed by Deloitte with its 2014 global aerospace and defense industry outlook released last month. Deloitte expects the combination of airlines and operators replacing older fleets with new fuel-efficient aircraft and increased air passenger demand in the Middle East and Asia Pacific markets to make 2014 another "record year" for the commercial aerospace industry.  The financial consulting firm also expects a new competitor will successfully enter the commercial airframe market and compete with Boeing and Airbus for Asia Pacific sales over the next two decades as well. 
"New low-cost carriers and demand for intra-Asia travel have fueled the substantial increase in single-aisle airplanes," said Tinseth. "Fuel-efficient airplanes like the Next-Generation 737 and 737 MAX help the growing number of low-cost carriers operate more efficiently and provide affordable fares to the emerging middle class."
Boeing's forecast for the Asia Pacific region is higher than the 20-year outlook for the Asia Pacific region released by Airbus last year, which expects Asian carriers to buy 9,870 new aircraft worth $1.6 trillion. To keep up with the increased demand, Boeing is continuing to increase the production rate of its most popular selling aircraft model, the 737. The company is now producing the Next Generation 737 family aircraft at 42 per month, and plans to increase that number to 47 per month by 2017. 


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