Growth Flat According to FAA

Confirming what regional execs already know, regional carrier capacity is forecast to increase 2.5 percent while capacity in domestic markets will grow only 0.6 percent and mainline carrier capacity up just 0.3 percent as capacity discipline continues, according to the FAA’s 2008-2025 Forecast, released yesterday at its annual forecast conference in Washington. The agency said commercial carrier revenue passenger miles (RPMs) and enplanements are forecast to increase 0.6 and 1.0 percent, respectively. While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft continues to increase, we expect the number of 50-seat regional jets in service will fall, increasing the average regional aircraft size in 2008 by 0.9 seats to 50.5 seats per mile. Largely because of the impacts of capacity realignment, passenger trip length in domestic markets will decrease this year by 3.2 miles.
We see a strong growth in business aviation demand continuing driven by a growing U.S. and world economy, as well as a growing fleet of very light jets (VLJs). VLJs, with their relatively inexpensive operating costs, may redefine “on-demand” air taxi service. Next year, we project that 400 units will join the fleet, with that figure growing to 450-500 a year through 2025. Partly because of the influx of new VLJs, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 3.0 percent a year through 2025. For a complete analysis see the next issue of Regional Aviation News.