The potential development of a Bombardier (BBD) Dash 8 family built around the design of the existing -400 won’t represent a threat to residual values of existing models for some time, although the introduction of a new model invariably has negative connotations for the incumbent model, according to an analysis in the latest issue of Aircraft Value News, RAN's sister publication.
Bombardier, in tentatively proposing a larger and smaller derivative of the existing Dash 8-400, wants to stimulate new orders when those for existing versions dwindle once more. The existing Dash 8-300, featuring slightly fewer seats than the proposed shortened -400, would see a new glass cockpit and use of the Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150A engines rather than the existing PW23B. The PW150 is a more advanced engine whilst the PW123-powered Dash 8-300 first entered service nearly twenty years ago but the 300, offering 56-58 seats, would act as a replacement for an aging fleet.
However, a stretch to the existing -400, taking capacity to perhaps 90 seats, would offer operators lower seat mile costs and may detract from the current attraction of the -400. Operators, having acquired a particular aircraft type, are continually seeking lower operating costs. This can be most easily achieved by stretching an existing design. A stretch translates into a lighter fuselage structure per seat but without an improvement in engine technology and efficiency, it can also see a shortfall in airfield, climb and fuel performance. More intense use of the similar engines can see higher maintenance costs, hence the need for the PW150 when developing the Dash 8-400 rather than an upgraded PW123. A shorter version of the -400 may offer improved performance but the fuselage may be heavier as a result.
Values of used Dash 8-300s in particular have been improving as operators sought to capitalize on relatively lower operating costs of turboprops in an era of high fuel prices. Both current and residual values of the -300 and -400 have also enjoyed considerable stability owing to the absence of any direct replacement. The residual values of jets by contrast are being continually amended as new products are proposed and developed. The order book of both ATR and Bombardier has improved but the order quantities are still insufficient to justify the expense of developing an all new replacement. The preference has therefore been for modest upgrades such as the first in-flight entertainment package and new seats on the ATR-72. Upgraded avionics are also planned for the ATR042/ATR7-2 seeking to stave off the need for a replacement.