Regional carriers continue to fly more and more international routes, but the pace of this growth is slowing.

Regional aircraft - regional jets, turboprops and piston-powered planes - are scheduled to fly 436,190 international flights this year. However, the growth in this sector has slowed to 1.96 percent and the number of distinct routes has declined from 265 to 249, according to data compiled by BACK Aviation Solutions exclusively for Regional Aviation News.

"There continues to be growth, but at a slower pace than the initial recovery from the September 11th downturn," said Frederick Roe, an analyst for BACK. "The bulk of the new routes are being flown by RJs, especially the larger RJs."

In some respects, the international flying by regional aircraft is past its peak. The largest growth spurt was in 2003, when the carriers flew 6.92 percent more than the previous year. But Roe points out that 2003 was a rebound year, reversing many of the declines associated with the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The industry flew the most diverse number of routes - 265 - in 2004. The 249 distinct routes scheduled for this year are still 9.6 percent more than the 227 routes flown in 2003.

For this study, BACK defines an international route as one that has to begin or end in the United States or one of its territories, for example Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands.

These international flights can be separated into three categories: Canadian, Mexican or Caribbean routes.

By far, most of the international routes involve travel to or from Canada. There are 245,590 flights scheduled this year between Canada and the United States. The number of transborder flights has increased by 4,883, or 2.02 percent.

In a pattern that extends back at least five years, the third quarter of each year is the busiest travel month. There are 67,103 Canadian flights scheduled for July, August or September 2005.

When BACK calculates the busiest routes - those with the most scheduled flights - six out of the 10 busiest routes in 2005 are tied to Canadian markets. With the exception of the Seattle-Vancouver route, the other five are routes that bring Canadian travelers to major U.S. hubs.

As for Mexican destinations, neither tourist nor business locales made this Top Ten list.

There are 53,386 flights scheduled on regional aircraft to Mexico this year. The number of Mexican flights is growing at the fastest rate - 32.6 percent or 13,147 more flights this year than last year.

Of the top busiest new international markets for regional aircraft in 2005, four of the 10 markets are in Mexico.

The Caribbean is the one region where there are fewer flights scheduled for 2005 than in 2004. There are 133,373 flights scheduled for this year, which is 4.7 percent or 6,718 flights less than in 2004.

Not surprisingly, the winter and spring quarters are the busiest. There were 34,266 flights flown in the second quarter this year. The busiest quarter since Sept. 11, 2001, was the first quarter of 2003 when there were 37,893 flights flown.

There is still a place for prop-powered planes in international flying. The busiest route this year is between San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Tortola/Beef Island in the British Virgin Islands. Five carriers are scheduled to fly 15,940 flights, or on average 43 flights per day, between the two islands. All of these flights will fly on props: an ATR 72, a Dash 8 or a Cessna 402.

But when it comes to flying new international routes, the RJ dominates, and in fact, the Bombardier [BBD] CRJ 700 rules. SkyWest [SKYW] is scheduled to fly 1,272 flights on the 1,017-mile journey from San Francisco to Calgary, Alberta. It will fly the longer route, 1,381 miles, between Calgary and Chicago, 420 times this year.

American Eagle will fly the CRJ 700 between Chicago and Nassau, Bahamas. Atlantic Southeast Airlines, will fly the aircraft between Salt Lake City and Los Cabos, Mexico.

>>Contacts: John Weber and Frederick Roe, BACK Aviation Solutions, (203) 752-2000.<<