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Monday, December 6, 2004

Regional Aviation Box Scores

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
Quarterly trend | Twelve-month trend 4th Q Ending 9/30/04 4th Q Ending 9/30/03 Percent Change FY Ending 9/30/04 FY Ending 9/30/03 Percent Change
UP | UP Operating Revenue $260M $175.50 48.1% $896.8M $599.9M 49.5%
UP | UP Operating Expenses $233.7M $155.20 50.6% $829.4M $545M 52.3%
UP | UP Net Income $10.7M $9.80 9.2% $26.2M $25.3M 3.6%
UP | DN Net Income Per Share 28? 25? 12% 70? 76? (7.9%)

Analysis: After taxes, Mesa earned 30 cents per share in the fourth quarter; however, James Parker of Raymond James had estimated Mesa would have earned 32 cents per share. For fiscal 2005, Parker now estimates Mesa will earn $1.07 per share instead of $1.15 per share as he had earlier projected. The decrease is attributed to Parker's calculation that Mesa will not place eight more 50-seat RJs into service in the next year for US Airways, its bankrupt partner. By next September, Mesa's fleet will grow from 129 planes to 145.

Bombardier [BBD]
Quarterly trend | Twelve-month trend 4th Q Ending 9/30/04 4th Q Ending 9/30/03 Percent Change FY Ending 9/30/04 FY Ending 9/30/03 Percent Change
DN | DN Aerospace Revenue $1.6B $1.7B (5.9%) $5.33B $5.38B (0.9%)
UP | UP Total Corporate Revenue $3.6B $3.4B 5.9% $11B $10.6B 3.8%
DN | UP Cost of Aerospace Sales $1.3B $1.4B (7.1%) $4.65B $4.64B 0.2%
UP | UP Total Cost of Corporate Sales $3.1B $2.9B 6.9 % $9.7B $8.9B 9%
DN | DN Aerospace EBT ($7M) $121M (105.8%) ($42M) $134M (131.3%)
DN | DN Corporate Net Income $10M $133M (92.5%) ($141M) $255M (155.3%)
DN | DN Net Income Per Share 0? 7? (100%) (9?) 14? (164.3%)
{ } Code-share partners Sources: Company reports, Raymond James

Analysis: The third quarter drop in Aerospace division revenue is directly attributed to a $300 million decline in regional aircraft sales from the same period in 2003. There were 41 regional aircraft delivered in the third quarter compared to 54 planes in third quarter 2003. On the other hand, there were 28 business jets delivered in the most recent quarter compared to 15 a year ago. Business jet revenue nearly doubled to $462 million. For the second time since October, Bombardier announced plans to reduce the production rate of the CRJ 200 series. It now anticipates building 54 RJs in the next fiscal year instead of the 68 it had forecast in October. However, it does not plan any additional layoffs in the Aerospace division. The company did announce another round of more than 2,000 layoffs in its train production unit.