Data: One Prop Plane Retired For Every Four New RJs Placed In Service

As the regional jet (RJ) continues to play an ever-increasing role in regional aviation, the number of propeller-driven aircraft continues to decline.

Since 2000, for every four new RJs put into service there was one turboprop or piston-driven aircraft retired, according to John Weber, a Back Aviation vice president. It is not simply that the RJs are replacing the prop-aircraft, but the RJs are also replacing narrow-body airplanes on some routes, said Fred Roe, another Back analyst. The network carriers have been employing RJs flown by their code-share partners - the regional airlines - to take over routes that could not be flown profitably with larger planes.

The average stage length of an RJ has been steadily increasing. Prior to 1999, the average RJ flew a route less than 400 miles long, Roe said. Now the average RJ flies a route more than 450 miles long.

As the RJs get larger - the Bombardier [BBD] CRJ 700s and the Embraer [ERJ] 170s each carry 75 to 80 passengers - there is a tendency for the network carriers to fly longer connecting points. Some of the routes may indeed be point-to-point instead of feeding the network hub.

Conversely, the turbo props are flying shorter routes. The prop-driven planes flew the longest average routes in 2000. Now the planes fly an average route of 179 miles.

The number of inactive or retired prop planes now exceeds the number of prop planes actively flown on scheduled routes. Weber said that 2001 was the peak with 5,455 prop-driven planes in active service. As the number of active planes decrease, the number of retirements has increased. There were 4,731 planes classified as retired or inactive at the start of the year, Weber said.

The RJs now flying were built by four different manufacturers with engines built by four different engine makers. Two airframe builders have dropped out of the sales race - BAe and Fokker. Bombardier and Embraer dominate today's RJ production. Bombardier by far has sold more 50-seat RJs than any other manufacturer - 671 planes.

According to the Back data, the only RJ that has been retired since the niche was created in the early 1990s has been the Fokker 100. Although BAe decided after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to stop aircraft production, there are still five U.S. regional airlines flying 52 various versions of the BAe 146. The BAe 146 is the only regional jet using an Avco-Lycoming engine.

There are two U.S. regional carriers flying the Dornier 328Jet - Skyway, the Midwest Connection carrier, and Atlantic Coast Airlines [ACAI], on routes for Delta Air Lines [DAL]. Avcraft Aviation, a U.S. firm based in Virginia, is resuming production of the plane in Germany. The Dornier is the only regional jet flying with Pratt & Whitney engines.

While Bombardier dominates the airframe niche, General Electric [GE] is gaining in the engine race. GE is the primary engine supplier for all CRJs as well as the new Embraer 170 family. Rolls-Royce is the primary engine maker for the ERJ 135-145 product line.

>>Contact: John Weber, Frederick Roe, Back Aviation, (203) 752-2000.<<