-T / T / +T | Comment(s)

Monday, June 14, 2004

Regional Airline Box Scores

Atlantic Coast Airlines [ACAI] {Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
274.7M
286.9M
(4.3%)
1.2B
1.3B
(1%)
DN | UP ASM (miles)
372.6M
381.9M
(2.4%)
1.88B
1.85B
2%
DN | DN Load Factor
73.7%
75.1%
(1.4 points)
68.4%
70.4%
(2 points)
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
696,073
729,013
(19.3%)
3.2M
3.3M
(1.9%)
Analysis: May marked the last full month of Atlantic Coast operations. In June it will begin phasing out its service to United and Delta as the company launches Independence Air. The carrier had up until May reported inconsistent growth over the same period of 2003, May marked a swing in the indexes to negative growth. June will see both less traffic and less capacity used for code-share flying. Wall Street estimates that Atlantic Coast will lose 22 cents per share in the second quarter.
Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL])
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
396.1M
348.5M
13.3%
1.7B
1.5B
14%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
571.7M
506.9M
12.8%
2.7B
2.3B
14.1%
UP | DN Load Factor
69.3%
68.8%
0.5 points
65.2%
65.3%
(0.1 points)
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
868,446
809,662
7.3%
3.9M
3.7M
18.2%
Analysis: One of two Delta Air Lines' regional carriers, Atlantic Southeast grew at a rate slower than its sibling, Comair, and even slower than its troubled parent. Delta's traffic in May-over-May grew at 18 percent compared to Atlantic Southeast's 13 percent. Atlantic Southeast's capacity grew slightly faster, 2.6 percent, than Delta's. Atlantic Southeast's load factor also grew while Delta's shrank by nearly the same amount.
Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL])
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
553.7M
425.5M
30.1%
2.5B
1.8B
37%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
799.3M
652.6M
22.5%
3.8B
2.9B
30.6%
UP | UP Load Factor
66.8%
65.8%
1.5 points
66.3%
65.1%
1.8%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.1M
899,040
22.6%
5M
3.9M
27.6%
Analysis: As the larger of Delta's two regional carriers, Comair far exceeded both Delta and Atlantic Southeast in both traffic and capacity growth. It also posted the best month-over-month improvement in load factor of the trio.
Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
173M
134.4M
28.7%
789.3M
611.9M
28.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
264.8M
207.5M
27.6%
1.2B
1B
17.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
65.3%
64.8%
0.5 points
64.9%
59.6%
5.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
473,200
404,000
17.1%
2.1M
1.8M
16.7%

Analysis: Horizon continues a trend that began in February with month-over-month increases in traffic exceeding 25 percent each month. Its month-over-month capacity growth has been inching up point-by-point beyond the 25 percent mark since March. Horizon since January has provided feeder service to Frontier Airlines. Horizon's growth rate in traffic and capacity in May has been has nearly triple that of its sibling, Alaska Air.
Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
417.6M
335.1M
24.6%
1.9B
1.5B
29.3%
DN | DN ASM (miles)
581.3M
464M
25.3%
2.8B
2.2B
26.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
71.8%
72.2%
(0.4 points)
70.4%
69.1%
1.3 points
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
1M
860,751
19.2%
4.8M
3.9M
25.2%

Analysis: Mesaba scored the best month-over-month improvement in load factor growth of all reporting regional carriers in May. It again reduced its capacity compared to last May. At the same time traffic increased by 18 percent. However, overall, the five-month trend of fewer passengers flying Mesaba accelerated in May when the enplanements count dropped 7 percent..
Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH])
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
16.6M
18.1M
(8.5%)
75M
82.5M
(9%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
29.1M
34.1M
(14.7%)
143.8M
170M
(15.4%)
UP | UP Load Factor
57.1%
53.3%
3.8 points
52.2%
48.5%
3.7 points
UP | UP Passengers (O&D)
54,430
48,446
12.4%
262,675
231,020
13.7%
UP | UP RASM (cent per mile)
21.89 cents
17.65 cents
24%
20.48 cents
16.35 cents
25.3%
UP | UP Revenue Yield (per mile)
37.34 cents
32.35 cents
15.4%
38.13 cents
32.91 cents
15.9%
Analysis: Both traffic and capacity continue an eight-month slide at Midwest Connect that began last October. Midwest Connect only provides feeder service to it parent, Midwest Airlines, and limited point-to-point flights. Unlike its regional unit, Midwest Airlines grew both traffic and capacity by about 26 percent in the May-to-May comparison. However, Midwest Connect continues to improve both revenue and revenue yield in the month-over-month comparison. The mainline carrier reported a 14 percent decline in both RASM and revenue yield. Raymond James analyst James Parker is beginning to doubt that Midwest Connect and Delta can strike a deal for the regional to fly the Dornier 328Jets that are currently assigned to Atlantic Coast. If Delta files for Chapter 11, it may decide to send the planes back to its lessor instead of keeping them in service.
Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
236.4M
149.2M
58.4%
969M
566.7M
71%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
330.1M
214.9M
53.6%
1.4B
922.2M
58.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
71.6%
69.5%
2.1 points
66.3%
61.5%
4.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
528,677
387,071
36.6%
2.2M
1.5M
45.6%
Analysis: Pinnacle has about 95 new regional jets of the 129 it expects to get from Northwest by July 2005. As Pinnacle adds new jets each month, its traffic and capacity continues to grow as reflected in the May report. Analyst Jamie Baker of JP Morgan doubts Pinnacle will get any more jet contracts because of Northwest's reluctance to "super- size" one of its partners. Restrictions in the code-share contract may also tie Pinnacle's hands as the regional seeks additional code-share partners.
SkyWest [SKYW] {Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines]
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
417.6M
335.1M
24.6%
1.9B
1.5B
29.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
581.3M
464M
25.3%
2.8B
2.2B
26.9%
DN | UP Load Factor
71.8%
72.2%
(0.4 points)
70.4%
69.1%
1.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1M
860,751
19.2%
4.8M
3.9M
25.2%

Analysis: SkyWest continues to adjust its fleet mix. In May it added its fourth 70-seat regional jet and retired another 30-seat turboprop. Both capacity and traffic continue growing by at least 25 percent month-over-month. This has been a trademark of the carrier for at least the last 12 months. This capacity growth margin continues to be in line with Wall Street expectations. Capacity is the key index since SkyWest is paid on a capacity-buy basis by both Delta and United. Wall Street estimates that SkyWest will earn 34 cents per share in the second quarter.
US Airways Express (Units of US Airways [UAIR]) {Allegheny, Piedmont, PSA and MidAtlantic Airlines }
May trend | Year-to-date trend
May 2004
May 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
603.4M
513.3M
17.5%
603.4M
513.3M
10.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
261.8M
208.5M
6.9%
1.08B
1.01B
6.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
61.8%
54.2%
7.5 points
55.8%
50.8%
5 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
615,287
518,465
18.7%
2.5M
2.3M
8.3%
Analysis: May marks the first full month of operations for MidAtlantic Airlines and the use of the new Embraer 170. The plane and carrier began service in early April. The four regional carriers performed better in May in month-over-month comparisons than the mainline, US Airways. Traffic increased dramatically on US Airways Express compared to a 7.3 percent RPM growth for the mainline and a 1.6 percent decline in enplanements..
( ) Indicates corporate affiliation { } Indicates code-share partnerships Source: Company reports, JP Morgan, Raymond James

 

blog comments powered by Disqus