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Monday, October 18, 2004

Regional Airline Box Scores September Traffic Reports - Second Wave

 

Great Lakes [GLUX] {Frontier, United Airlines}
September trend | Year-to-date trend Sept. 2004 Sept. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
DN | UP RPM (miles)
10.7M
10.8M
(1.4%)
101.5M
89.3M
13.7%
DN | UP ASM (miles)
23.7M
27.3M
(13.4%)
2437.7M
244.8M
1.3%
UP | UP Load Factor
45.3%
39.8%
5.5 points
41%
36.5%
1.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
39,829
39,546
0.7%
367,073
323,707
13.4%
Analysis: Great Lakes posted in September its largest month-over-month decline in capacity for the year. It also reported its first drop in traffic growth for the year.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH])
September trend | Year-to-date trend Sept. 2004 Sept. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | DN RPM (miles)
17.8M
15.8M
12.6%
149.1M
157.2M
(5.1%)
UP | DN ASM (miles)
30.8M
29.2M
5.3%
269.2M
298.6M
(9.8%)
UP | UP Load Factor
57.8%
54%
3.8 points
55.4%
52.6%
2.8 points
UP | UP Yield
36.55 cents
36.63 cents
2.6%
37.32 cents
36.68 cents
14.2%
UP | UP RASM
21.69 cents
19.88 cents
9.1%
21.23 cents
17.62 cents
20.5%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
57,461
51,294
12%
502,029
445,669
12.6%
Analysis: Midwest connect reversed a 12-month slide in both traffic and capacity as it recorded double-digit growth in both RPMs and enplanements in the September-over- September report. The carrier also reversed a one-month decline in load factor.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL]) {Northwest Airlines}
September trend | Year-to-date trend Sept. 2004 Sept. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
255.6M
159M
60.7%
2B
1.2B
65.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
388M
244M
59%
2.9B
1.8B
57.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
65.9%
65.2%
0.7 points
69.7%
66.5%
3.2%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
550,412
395,180
39.3%
4.6M
3.2M
43.8%

Analysis: Pinnacle's September performance was just a hair off the pace set in August. The August report was the highest growth in both traffic and capacity since May. Pinnacle added more four regional jets to its fleet in September.

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines, United Airlines}
September trend | Year-to-date trend Sept. 2004 Sept. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
506.5M
366.7M
38.1%
4B
3B
32.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
679.2M
522.3M
30%
5.4B
4.2B
28.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
74.6%
70.2%
4.4 points
73.6%
71.6%
2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.2M
927,215
31.7%
9.8M
7.7M
26.6%

Analysis: The third quarter capacity growth of 30 percent year-over-year was ahead of Raymond James analyst James Parker's estimate of 27 percent capacity growth. Parker is holding firm on his earning estimate of 37 cents per share.
( ) Indicates corporate affiliation { } Indicates code-share partnerships Source: Company reports, Raymond James
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