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Monday, December 13, 2004

Regional Airline Box Scores - November Traffic Reports

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
240.8M
188.7M
27.6%
2.6B
2B
30%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
338.5M
264.7M
27.8%
3.5B
2.6B
34.6%
DN | UP Load Factor
71.2%
71.3%
(0.1 points)
75.5%
75%
0.5 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
573,905
493,994
16.18%
6.5B
5.3B
22.6%

Analysis: After posting record growth in October, Air Wisconsin's growth pattern in November's year-over-year report settled into a pace it last experienced in July.

American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
555.2M
422.9M
31.3%
5.8B
4.3B
33.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
827.4M
644.5M
28.4%
8.6B
6.8B
25.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
67.1%
65.6%
1.5 points
67.8%
63.9%
3.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.4M
1.2M
18.6%
16.1B
13.4B
20.4%

Analysis: After a blistering fall marked by record-setting year-over-year growth, American Eagle's November paced slowed. The growth in November traffic measurements is just slightly ahead of those recorded in August - its slowest month for the year.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL])
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
432.1M
347M
24.5%
4.3B
3.6B
19.1 %
UP | UP ASM (miles)
604.8M
528M
14.5%
6.2B
3.6B
72.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
65.9%
63.4%
3.9 points
66%
63.2%
4.5 points

Analysis: In November, Atlantic Southeast continued to build on the rebound that it reported in the October-over-October report. ASA continues to grow at a faster rate than its larger sibling, Comair.

Chicago Express (Unit of ATA Holdings [ATAH])
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
13.6M
188.7M
(8%)
174M
175.2M
(0.7%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
22.5M
264.7M
(10.7%)
279.8M
283.3M
(1.2%)
UP | UP Load Factor
60.8%
71.3%
1 point
62.2%
61.9%
0.3 points
DN | UP Passengers Enplaned
82,369
493,994
(2.1%)
6.5B
5.3B
2.3%

Analysis: In the wake of its October bankruptcy filing, Chicago Express saw a drop in passenger traffic. The carrier funnels traffic into ATA's Chicago Midway hub. During November, ATA also recorded significant decreases in year-over-year passenger traffic. In January, Chicago Express will be feeding both ATA and AirTran, which will be flying some ATA routes out of Midway. In addition, it will begin a new feeder service in ATA's Indianapolis hub.

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL])
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
522.1M
492.7M
6%
5.8B
4.7B
23.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
760.2 M
725.9M
4.7%
8.5B
7.1B
19.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
69%
63.2%
9.1 points
68.6%
65.8%
4.3 points

Analysis: With the exception of a 9-point improvement in its November-over-November load factor, Comair continues to grow at an ever-slower rate. In November, Comair posted a new 13-month low mark for slow month-over-month growth.

ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
634.7
523.6M
21.2%
6.7B
5.2B
29.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
871.5M
745.6M
16.9%
9.4B
7.6B
24%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.8%
70.2%
2.6 points
71.3%
68.3%
3 points
UP | UP Block Hours
61,388
51,801
18.5%
663,816
538,488
23.3%

Analysis: ExpressJet block hours grew by 19 percent for November which is in line with the estimates from Raymond James for 18 percent growth in the fourth quarter.

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALKA]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
187.6M
134.3M
39.7%
1.9B
1.4B
30.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
255.9
200.6
27.6%
2.8B
2.3B
20.1%
UP | UP Load Factor
73.3%
67%
6.3 points
68.9%
63.4%
5.5 points
UP | UP Passengers
511,000
402,500
27%
5.3M
4.5M
17.8%

Analysis: In November, Horizon reported its best month of the year. Only the June improvement in the load factor was higher than the traffic and capacity marks Horizon recorded for November over November 2003.

Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE])
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
125M
124M
0.8%
1.5B
1.4B
4.7%
DN | DN ASM (miles)
187M
217M
(13.8%)
2.41B
2.47B
(2.4%)
UP | UP Load Factor
66.8%
57.1%
9.7 points
64%
59.6%
4.4 points

Analysis: Jazz, the regional unit of Air Canada, reported only slight growth in traffic in its November report. However, as the carrier continues to adjust its post-bankruptcy fleet, it reduced its capacity and thus boosted its load factor by 9 points.

Mesaba Aviation [MAIR] {Northwest Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
164.2M
154.9M
6%
1.7B
1.6B
7.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
255.9M
249.7M
2.5%
2.6B
2.6B
0%
UP | UP Load Factor
64.2%
62.1%
2.1 points
64.4%
60.1%
4.3 points
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
459,266
474,749
(3.3%)
4.9M
5.2M
(4.85)

Analysis: With the exception of September when Mesaba reported actual declines in year-over-year traffic and capacity markers, the carrier in November posted its slowest growth month since February.

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West, United Airlines, US Airways}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
455.6M
320M
42.4%
4.9B
2.8B
73.6%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
641.8M
472.8M
35.7%
6.9B
4.4B
56.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
71%
67.7%
3.3 points
71.4%%
64.5%
6.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
988,679
672,257
47.1%
10.1M
6.4M
58.6%

Analysis: Although Mesa's November-over-November capacity growth was 35 percent, it is running below 42 percent quarterly growth projected by James Parker at Raymond James.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH])
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | DN RPM (miles)
18.3M
14.7M
24.5%
187.2M
188.8M
(0.9%)
UP | DN ASM (miles)
30.5M
26.1M
17.2%
331.7M
354.7M
(6.5%)
UP | UP Load Factor
59.9%
56.4%
3.5 points
56.4%
53.2%
3.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
59,571
49,825
19.6%
625,075
563,049
13%

Analysis: Midwest Connect reported new 2004 records in November for year-over-year traffic and capacity improvements.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
269.8M
172.4M
56.5%
2.6B
1.6B
63.6%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
414.6M
258.5
60.4%
3.8B
2.4B
58.3%
DN | UP Load Factor
65.1%
66.7%
(1.6 points)
69.1%
66.9%
2.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
549,281
416,132
32%
5.7M
4M
41.8%

Analysis: As Pinnacle continues to operate at near-record setting growth levels, in November its load factor dipped for the second straight month in the year-over-year comparisons. The 1.6-point drop was the steepest for the year.

Republic Airlines [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
278.3M
220.5M
26.2%
2.6B
1.9B
33.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
404.7M
330.9
22.3%
3.9B
3.1B
27.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
63.8%
66.7%
2.1 points
66.7%
63.8%
2.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
621,848
427,494
45.5%
5.6M
4.1M
35%

Analysis: Now flying eight Embraer [ERJ] 170s, capacity grew by 22 percent in November-over-November comparisons. With a 45 percent growth in passenger enplanements, Republic still improved its load factor by 2.1 points. Analyst James Parker believes the US Airways bankruptcy clouds hanging over Republic have dissipated slightly with the recent $140 million liquidity deal between US Airways and General Electric (RAN, Dec. 6).

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Delta Air Lines, Continental Airlines, United Airlines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
497.1M
380.5M
30.6%
5B
3.8B
31.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
681.1M
532.7M
27.9%
6.8B
5.3B
28.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
73%
71.4%
1.6 points
73.6%
71.8%
1.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.1M
964,897
21.2%
12.2M
9.7M
25.7%

Analysis: The 28 percent capacity growth at SkyWest in November-over-November is running slightly ahead of the 27 percent quarterly growth projected by Raymond James. SkyWest's risk as a Delta code-share has diminished as Delta seems to be edging away from a bankruptcy filing.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {MidAtlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
238.1M
109.7M
117%
1.8B
1.1B
56.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
380.9MM
192M
98.4%
3B
2.2B
35.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
62.5%
57.1%
5.4 points
61.4%
53.1%
8.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
678,489
490,026
38.5%
6.4M
5.3M
20%

Analysis: After posting a record high month in October, US Airways Express exceeded that in November with new year-over-year records in capacity growth and passenger enplanements.

Independence Air [FLYI] {Delta Air Lines}
November trend | Year-to-date trend Nov. 2004 Nov. 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
183M
1.1%
181.1M
30.1%
139.2M
2.4B
UP | UP ASM (miles)
352.2M
2.6%
343M
9.2%
314M
3.9B
DN | UP Load Factor
52%
(0.8 point)
52.8%
8.4 points
44.4%
62.3%
DN | UP Passengers
477,424
(4.2%)
498,303
27.6%
390,640
6.5M
( ) Indicates corporate affiliation { } Indicates code-share partnerships Source: Company reports, Raymond James

Analysis: On Nov. 1, Flyi flew its last code-share flights for Delta Air Lines. On that last day, Flyi flew 3,095 Delta passengers. On Nov. 23, Independence Air began flying its two Airbus 319s between Washington and Florida. Its November load factor of 52 percent - a slight drop below the October mark - remains below expectations. The year-to-date totals include traffic carried for both Delta and United Airlines earlier in the year.