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Monday, July 12, 2004

Regional Airline Box Scores June Traffic Reports - First Wave (As Of July 7)

 

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL])
June trend | Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
422.3M
351.5M
20.1%
2.1B
1.9B
15.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
558.2M
493M
13.2%
3.2B
2.8B
13.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
74.3%
67.3%
10.4 points
67.1%
56%
5.6 points
Analysis: In June-over-June traffic reports, Atlantic Southeast reversed a trend in which it had been growing at a slower pace than its parent, Delta Air Lines or its regional sibling, Comair. This time around, Atlantic Southeast was in the middle. It exceeded Delta on all three measures and showed a dramatic improvement in its load factor growth over both Delta and Comair.

 

 

Chicago Express (Unit of ATA Holdings [ATAH])
June trend | Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
17.2M
18.3M
(5.9%)
95.8M
97.9M
(2.1%)
DN | UP ASM (miles)
25M
26.2M
(4.5%)
155.4M
154.5M
0.6%
DN | DN Load Factor
68.8%
69.9%
(1.1points)
61.7%
63.4%
(1.7%)
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
103,520
104,105
(0.6%)
546,413
557,933
(2.1%)
Analysis: Chicago Express continues to perform below 2003 levels. While the negative growth rate in the June-over-June reports has slowed compared to those reported in previous month, May's solitary bright spot - the load factor -slid in June.

 

 

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL])
June trend | Year-to-date trend
June 2004
June 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
580.6M
458.8M
26.5%
3B
2.2B
34.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
779.7M
671.2M
16.2%
4.6B
3.5B
28.6%
UP | UP Load Factor
75.3%
74.7%
0.9 points
68.7%
67.7%
1.6 points
Analysis: June was a good month for Delta's Comair, but May was a great month. The larger of Delta's two regional carriers, Comair again exceeded both Delta and Atlantic Southeast in both traffic and capacity growth - but by smaller growth margins in the June-over-June reports. Delta slightly outperformed Comair in the month-over-month improvements in load factor growth.

 

 

ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines}
June trend | Year-to-date trend
June 2004
June 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
680.3M
538.9M
26.2%
3.4B
2.5B
36.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
883.5M
733.7M
20.4%
5B
3.8B
30.3%
UP | UP Load Factor
77%
73.5%
3.5 points
68.9%
66%
2.9 points
UP | UP Block Hours
63,091
51,412
22.7%
353,155
273,812
16.9%
Analysis: Analyst James Parker at Raymond James notes that the critical measurement for ExpressJet - block hours - is running slightly ahead of the broker's estimate for the second quarter. Continental compensates ExpressJet based on completed block hours. ExpressJet completed 99.8 percent of its flights, exceeding Continental's goal of 98.8 percent.

 

 

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
June trend | Year-to-date trend
June 2004
June 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
199.4M
145.9M
36.7%
985.7M
757.7M
30.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
272.8M
221M
23.4%
1.4B
1.2B
18.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
73.1%
66%
7.1 points
66.4%
60.7%
5.7 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
535,000
441,100
21.3%
2.7M
2.2M
22.7%
Analysis: In June, Horizon posted its largest month-over-month growth in load factor since January's 7.9 points. Its June-over-June growth in traffic as measured by RPMs nearly equaled the 36.8 percent growth recorded in March. Once again, Horizon's growth rate for traffic and capacity in June has nearly tripled that of its sibling, Alaska Air.

 

 

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West, United Airlines, US Airways}
June trend | Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
523.4M
288.1M
81.6%
2.4B
1.3B
82.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
679M
414.7M
63.7%
3.5B
2.1B
62.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
77.1%
69.5%
7.6 points
70.1%
62.3%
7.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1M
629,479
62.8%
4.9M
3M
61.8%
Analysis: The most relevant statistic for Mesa is capacity because 90 percent of its capacity is revenue-guarantee service. In June, for the third month in a row, Mesa reported a near 60 percent or greater month-over-month growth in capacity. And also for the third month in a row, the carrier reported traffic growth that exceeded 80 percent.

 

 

US Airways Express (Units of US Airways [UAIR]) {Allegheny, Piedmont, PSA and MidAtlantic Airlines }
June trend | Year-to-date trend
June 2004
June 2003
Percent Change
YTD 2004
YTD 2003
Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
183.2M
117.6M
55.8%
484.6M
339.4M
42.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
271.1M
209.1M
29.7%
761.9M
620.9M
22.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
67.6%
56.3%
11.3 points
63.6%
54.7%
8.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
656,407
529,841
23.9%
1.8M
1.5M
20%
Analysis: US Airways' four regional airlines that fly the US Airways Express livery collectively far outperformed the mainline in the June-over-June traffic reports. The mainline reported small single digit growth in each measurement index while the regional carriers reported the highest growth rates of the year to date. Just as the mainline reported its highest load factor ever, 81.6 percent, the Express carriers posted their own record for load factor, 67.6 percent.
( ) Indicates corporate affiliation { } Indicates code-share partnerships Source: Company reports, Raymond James

 

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