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Monday, August 16, 2004

Regional Airline Box Scores July Traffic Reports - Second Wave

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines, AirTran}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
274.8M
215.4M
27.6%
1.6B
1.2B
33.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
335.7M
264.6M
26.9%
2.1B
1.6B
33.6%
UP | DN Load Factor
81.9%
81.4%
0.5 points
75.9%
76%
(0.1 points)
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
650,401
538,900
20.7%
4M
3.2M
23.9%

Analysis: In the July-over-July traffic reports, Air Wisconsin managed to handle large increases in traffic and capacity while hitting record load levels. In August, Air Wisconsin will devote 100 percent of its fleet to United Express routes as it ends its code-share contract with AirTran.

Chicago Express (Unit of ATA Holdings [ATAH])
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
17.3M
17.6M
(1.6%)
113.2M
115.5M
(2.1%)
DN | UP ASM (miles)
24.7M
25.5M
(2.8%)
180.2M
180M
0.1%
UP | DN Load Factor
69.9%
69.1%
0.8 points
62.8%
64.2%
(1.6 points)
UP | DN Passengers Enplaned
104,572
99,800
4.8%
650,985
657,733
(1%)

Analysis: After two months of declining growth, Chicago Express managed to reverse a slide in passenger enplanements with 4.8 percent growth. Even as traffic and capacity again declined, it did manage to boost its load factor slightly.

ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
739.7M
585.4M
24.6%
4.1B
3.1B
33.9%
UP | UP RPM (miles)
739.7M
585.4M
24.6%
4.1B
3.1B
33.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
79.3%
74.4%
4.9 points
70.5%
67.4%
3.1 points
UP | UP Block Hours
64,076
55,255
16%
417,231
329,067
26.8%
UP | UP Departures
35,333
32,514
8.7%
232,222
200,968
15.6%

Analysis: The pace of year-over-year growth slowed slightly in July for ExpressJet. Its growth in traffic and capacity were a few points off the pace set in June. Continental pays ExpressJet based on block hours. The growth rate in July's block hours was 6 percent less than the pace set in June.

FLYi [FLYI] (Formerly Atlantic Coast Airlines) {Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Independence Air}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
211.4M
302.8M
(30.2%)
1.7B
1.9B
(9.3%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
333.4M
390.7M
(14.6%)
2.5B
2.6B
(4.1%)
DN | DN Load Factor
63.4%
77.5%
(14 points)
68.6%
72.5%
(3.9 points)
DN | DN Block Hours
30,441
35,340
(13.9%)
226,390
244,452
(7.4%)
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
592,658
771,454
(23.2%)
4.4M
4.8M
(8.7%)

Analysis: The consolidated July traffic reports for FLYi cover the first full month of Independence Air, which added new markets and aircraft each week. July was also the last full month of United Express operations; although withdrawal of aircraft from the United fleet was well under way. The carrier flew about 35 fewer planes than in July 2003.

Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
193.7M
171.5M
13%
1B
983.3M
6.7%
UP | DN ASM (miles)
270.1M
256.9M
5.1%
1.63B
1.65B
(1.2%)
UP | UP Load Factor
71.7%
66.8%
4.9 points
64%
59.3%
4.7 points
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
527,979
552,300
(4.4%)
3M
3.2M
(5.5%)

Analysis: Growth continued at a moderate pace in the July-over-July traffic report at Mesaba for the second month in a row. The number of passengers boarding a Mesaba plane declined for the second month in a row.

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West, United Airlines, US Airways}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
565.4M
309.9M
82.5%
3B
1.6B
82.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
723.8M
440M
64.5%
4.2B
2.6B
62.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
78.1%
70.4%
7.7 points
71.5%
63.7%
7.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.1M
683,090
61.9%
6.1M
3.7M
61.8%

Analysis: Eighty-plus percent gains in traffic and 60-plus percent gains in capacity have become routine this year at Mesa. In July, the carrier achieved its highest load factor for the year at 78.1 percent.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH])
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
19M
19.8M
(4.3%)
112M
121.3M
(7.7%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
31.6M
33.4M
(5.5%)
205.6M
236.7M
(13.1%)
UP | UP Load Factor
60.1%
59.4%
0.7 points
54.5%
51.3%
3.2 points
UP | UP Passengers (O&D)
62,133
55,738
11.5%
382,866
338,253
13.2%
UP | UP RASM (cent per mile)
22.12 cents
19.26 cents
214.8%
21.05 cents
17.1 cents
23.1%
UP | UP Revenue Yield (per mile)
35.91 cents
31.72 cents
13.2%
37.62 cents
32.6 cents
15.4%
Analysis: Midwest Connect flew its planes fuller in July than in any other month this year. The carrier achieved a slight growth in its load factor in the July-over-July traffic report despite the third straight month during which both traffic and volume slid below the July 2003 mark.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
288.8M
181.6M
59%
1.5B
914.8M
67%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
376.1M
242.4M
55.1%
2.1B
1.3B
57%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.8%
74.9%
1.9 points
70%
65.8%
4.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
620,440
438,819
41.4%
3.4M
2.3M
44.5%

Analysis: As it added two more regional jets in July, the pace of growth in the monthly year-over-year traffic reports slowed slightly from the pace set in June. The 1.9 percent growth in load factor was the slowest this year.

SkyWest [SKYW] {Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
518.5M
386M
34.3%
2.9B
2.2B
25.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
659.3M
507.7M
29.9%
4B
3.1B
27.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
78.6%
76%
2.6 points
72.8%
71.2%
1.6 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.2M
989,061
26.6%
7.2M
5.8M
25.2%
Analysis: The pace of growth as reported in the July-over-July traffic reports has picked up as the carrier hit its highest marks in all four indexes since February. The nearly 30 percent gain in capacity is ahead of the 27 percent average for the quarter predicted by analyst James Parker, of Raymond James.

US Airways Express [UAIR] {Piedmont Airlines, PSA, MidAtlantic Airlines}
July trend | Year-to-date trend July 2004 July 2003 Percent Change YTD 2004 YTD 2003 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
195.7M
122.2M
60.1%
982.4M
753.2M
30.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
278M
216.5M
28.4%
1.6B
1.4B
13.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
70.4%
56.4%
13.9 points
60.3%
52.4%
7.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
659,904
550,906
19.8%
3.8M
3.4M
12.6%

Analysis: The emphasis US Airways is placing on its regional partners is apparent as traffic in the July-over-July report increased by 60 percent. In June traffic grew by 55 percent. As recently as March the rate of growth was measured in the single digits.

( ) Indicates corporate affiliation { } Indicates code-share partnerships Source: Company reports, Raymond James
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