A new tool, developed by researchers the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), became operational last week for the first time giving users detailed in-flight advisories of icing severity and the probability of encountering icing conditions. Icing is responsible for dozens of accidents annually, mostly with general aviation aircraft, according to the National Transportation Safety Board which has combatting ice-related accidents high on its agenda. In addition, severe icing conditions contributed to the 1994 ATR-72 accident over Roselawn, Ind. and impact other regional aircraft including the Saab 340.

The enhanced in-flight icing product maps are available in the cockpit so pilots can make appropriate course corrections. The product is designed to reduce flight delays which cost industry more than $20 million per year in damage, injuries and fuel. It guides aircraft away from hazardous icing conditions. NCAR's product comes a week after FAA Administrator Marion Blakey indicated the agency's Current Icing Product Severity (CIPS) tool, in development and testing for a number of years, would be available in less than two months. But NCAR upgrades CIPS, and is now available to air traffic controllers, pilots and other aviation weather users.

"This is a major advance that will enable dispatchers and even pilots to choose flight paths that avoid icing conditions," says Marcia Politovich, who oversees in-flight icing research at NCAR. "This product will help make commuter flights safer, and it will also enable commercial airlines to avoid the delays and excessive fuel costs associated with in- flight icing."

In 2002, the FAA approved the first version of the CIP as a tool for dispatchers to make fly/no-fly decisions, plan flights, change routes, and select altitudes. The high- precision maps and plots displayed online were derived from surface observations, numerical models, satellite and radar data, and pilot reports. The new version, updated hourly covering altitudes to 29,000 feet, incorporates more advanced weather prediction models and more detailed observations. It not only indicates the potential for icing but quantifies both the severity and the probability of icing encounters.

The new version of CIP is designed with regional and smaller aircraft in mind since they are more vulnerable to icing given their cruise altitudes in the more hazardous and ice-prone flight levels below 18,000. Politovich also pointed out these aircraft often lack ice prevention systems such as heating the leading edge of the wing that are standard on larger jets. In addition, controllers can use the new displays to vector incoming commercial aircraft to avoid altitudes at which ice can build up.

Blakey also spoke of additional moves to enhance aviation weather forecasting. One of the FAA's latest moves includes regional aircraft in gathering data for better forecasting. "Weather is a contributing or causal factor in 87 percent of all GA accidents," she said, adding that data collection below 20,000 feet is one of the larger challenges. "Moreover, just about three out of four airline delays over the last five years are attributed to Mother Nature. By outfitting smaller commuter aircraft, we're getting input from an entire fleet, quite a jump from [weather] balloons."

The sensors record humidity, pressure, temperature, winds aloft, icing, turbulence, true airspeed and location, time, and altitude from a built-in GPS, she said, adding it is been operational in the central U.S. for about 18 months. "The days of relying solely on weather balloons and subjective pilot reports are coming to a close. They aren't unimportant. But moving toward data collection turbocharged with satellite relays is a step up."

This information complements the data being collected by larger aircraft. Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) includes over a hundred thousand observations per day of winds aloft, temperature, pressure, and turbulence for analysis and distribution via ARINC. Blakey indicated that while current observations do not include humidity, AirDat is in the early stages of what one day might plug that hole using a program called TAMDAR, for Troposphere Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting. (RAN, May 8, p.1) The company places a multi-function atmospheric sensor aboard aircraft and, using a dedicated two-way satellite link through Iridium, the objective information is relayed to meteorologists.

Blakey also outlined other weather initiatives designed to make air traffic management more proactive than reactive by gaining a more comprehensive look at conditions far enough in advance. Indeed, the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product, which puts out a forecast every two hours from March through October looking out about six hours, is being expanded to eight hours. "We need a network-enabled common weather picture of now as well as one, two, and six hours from now," she said. "Everybody in the system right now is making decisions based on different pictures and different interpretations of those pictures. A network gives everyone the same look. One of the real science challenges is how you fuse all that data in to a single picture and continuously distribute it to everybody. Our concept for that is called NNEW -- NextGen Network Enabled Weather." FAA is working with DoD, Commerce, and NASA to leverage their investments in this capability. This will help us launch sooner than the initial delivery date of 2012."

Blakey also discussed the success of the airspace flow program, in place to handle difficult enroute weather patterns. (RAN, July 31, p.7) "We used it for the first time [during Thanksgiving] on the corridors from D.C. to New York and Cleveland to New York to handle high volume at high altitudes on the East Coast," she said. "It worked."

In place since June, it has shown promising results. Preliminary data, she said, reducing e delays during severe weather events by about 21 percent for flights destined to airports in the East. Cancelled flights dropped by about eight percent on severe weather days. Even so, it was just last summer that financial and performance results for regionals were hammered by weather delays.

"We expect that that will translate to a savings of $900 million over the next 10 years," she said. "This program is designed to address delays associated with airspace constraints. There was a time that ground-delay programs were implemented for multiple airports in response to severe weather. Working with industry, now for the first time, we're able to provide options to ground delays with predictable results. When the customer gets an option whether to file through or file around, it's a good sign for both of us."