Calyon Analyst Ray Niedl indicated there is a growing demand for point-to-point operations, according to comments made to NBC News. If that is so, then new point-to-point services such as ExpressJet’s (XJT) 24-point, nationwide service network may be the leading edge of a trend. FAA noted the increase in P2P in its latest forecast, saying a key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of connecting versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. In the aggregate, it appears that the number of direct flights by carriers (both network and low-cost) is increasing. However, as the current cycle of U.S. airline industry restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities and airport activity levels can fluctuate significantly.
The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) passengers to shed light on long-term trends. This ratio is an indicator of the tendency of the average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart demonstrates, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry varied within a narrow band between 1995 and 2002, but has been decreasing since then.