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Friday, October 12, 2007

New ATR Family Minor Impact on Existing Values, T-Prop Values Rising

Residual values of the existing ATR42-500 and ATR72-500 are likely to experience only a modest readjustment as a result of the launch of the -600, according to RAN’s sister publication Aircraft Value News. The publication reported that values of the ATR42-500 and ATR72-500 have escalated in lock step with fuel prices. It also cited the shortage of used and new turboprop availability as well as the absence of a direct replacement in the foreseeable future. The aircraft most likely to be impacted by the availability of the -600 are the earlier versions of the ATR42 and ATR72, notably the -320 and -210 series. Related Story
The -600 is seen as an incremental, but nonetheless, important development. The improvements are to the existing design center on the avionics, engine, weight and cabin but not the fuselage structure nor capacity, at least not directly.
By increasing the capacity of the ATR72 in particular, seat mile costs could have been reduced but even with the hike in recent production rates there was no guarantee that sufficient orders would materialize to justify the investment. Though engine improvements have been made, there has still not been sufficient advance to warrant an all new aircraft.
The principal benefits of the -600 as they relate to overshadowing the -500 center on the increase in weight and the incorporation of more powerful engines in the form of the PW127M. The maximum take off weight will increase by 300kgs with an optional further increase of an additional 200kgs. Combined with engines that offer more power for hot and high operations, the weight increases represent a significant improvement in operational flexibility and potential increase in revenue. With the average passenger weight in the all important U.S. and European markets increasing, performance of 50- and 70-seat turboprops has been adversely affected on some routes. The increase in MTOW for the ATR72-600 will allow at least the carriage of two more passengers on previously weight restricted routes.

Turboprop Values Exhibit Increase
The values of turboprops have continued to enjoy solid performance to the extent that prices and lease rentals have risen.
A consequence of the recovery in the turboprop market has been the difficulty for some traders to find aircraft to sell. Lease rentals have improved but so, too, have values. With so many more chasing fewer aircraft, the rise in pricing has been inevitable. The situation is compounded by the limited supply and type of new turboprop. The ATR72-500 and Dash8-400 are the only Western turboprops being manufactured in quantity.
The demand for new turboprops and moreover the ability of manufacturers to perhaps charge more for their products, continues to demonstrate the recovery in this sector. For nearly a decade, the turboprop sector was virtually written off, with a number of manufacturers withdrawing voluntarily or forcibly from the sector. The improvement in the fortunes of the sector is not solely a function of higher fuel prices. With the rise of the regional jet, the turboprop lost favor among both operators and passengers. An all-jet service was pursued, sometimes at the expense of operating economics. As the structure has changed once more, from regionals feeding the mainline carriers to greater independence, operators have needed to place operating economics higher than passenger preference. The structure of the turboprop market has also expanded beyond normal boundaries such that there is appetite from new market players in new regions. Finally, as turboprop manufacturing has centered on just two products, the need to retire older equipment has forced operators to seek replacements from the used sector.
A primary consideration for the stability in future values has been the lack of replacement products. Whereas the jet market will see a significant change in the product line up in the next decade, the turboprop sector remains particularly stable. However, both ATR and Bombardier recognize that their products have a long legacy and just as the jet manufacturers are seeking to take advantage of new technology, so, too, are the turboprop manufacturers. The potential for replacements for the ATR-72 and Dash 8 is becoming a reality and residual value calculations are increasingly taking note.
Not all values have however, seen an improvement. There are still some types that remain in the doldrums, just as the MD80 fails to ignite enthusiasm in the jet sector.