The nation's healthy - or nearly healthy - legacy airlines will be flying more regional jet routes in the first quarter of 2006 while the ailing carriers will be flying fewer.

As the new year begins, U.S. regional carriers will be flying 27,995 fewer flights with regional jets than they have this quarter.

According to an airline schedule analysis performed by BACK Aviation Solutions for Regional Aviation News, four of the six network carriers are planning to fly 31,183 fewer routes. Two legacy carriers are adding 6,966 flights.

Based on an analysis of the Official Airline Guide, BACK's tally includes those routes that had not been flown by an RJ in the fourth quarter of this year. The carriers may be instituting new service with an RJ, substituting an RJ for a mainline flight or upgrading a turboprop route to RJ service.

The seventh carrier included in the analysis was bankrupt Independence Air [FLYI], which flies the bulk of its routes with Bombardier [BBD] CRJ 200s. It plans to fly 3,778 fewer CRJ flights based on the scaled back schedule it implemented in November and December. However, since BACK completed its analysis, FlyI last week announced plans to drop service to four more cities in the first days of 2006, and will cut back on the frequency to other cities. Some service cutbacks, like the flights to Chicago and Jacksonville, Fla., have been on its Airbus fleet, however its flights to Buffalo, N.Y., and Manchester, N.H., were scheduled to be RJ flights. For example, its earlier schedule had reduced the number of flights to Buffalo from 608 to 540 for the first quarter.

FlyI is in the process of selling itself in a court-supervised auction. Final bids were due on Dec. 16 and a Jan. 5 court hearing has been scheduled to affirm any sale. The carrier announced that when it entered bankruptcy that it had sufficient funds to fly its early winter schedule until that Jan. 5 date.

The bankrupt network carriers Delta Air Lines [DALQ] and Northwest Airlines [NWACQ] account for the bulk of the cutbacks in regional flying. On the other hand, US Airways [LCC], now out of bankruptcy, and United Airlines [UALAQ], soon to exit bankruptcy, are flying most of the new RJ routes.

Delta is flying 199,309 RJ routes, or 21,707 fewer routes in the first quarter. Established regional code-share partners that fly 50-seat RJs are experiencing the bulk of the cuts. Former subsidiary Atlantic Southeast Airlines [SKYW] remains the second largest Delta Connection carrier and it is losing the smallest percentage of its routes due in part to the 70-seat CRJ 700s in its fleet. Shuttle America, part of Republic Airways [RJET], will fly 24 percent more flights, or 2,821, on the 70-seat Embraer [ERJ] 170. Shuttle began flying for Delta in September. Although Mesa Air Group's [MESA] Freedom Airlines is flying the 50- seat ERJ 145 for Delta, its business will grow by 124 percent to 5,672 flights. Freedom began flying for Delta in October as it phased out of its contract flying for US Airways.

Delta has added seasonal destinations, including flights out of Atlanta to St. Croix; out of Salt Lake City to Grand Junction, Colo., and Mazatlan, Mexico; and out of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport to Melbourne, Fla.

In the first quarter, Mesaba Aviation [MAIR] will fly 10 percent fewer flights for Northwest and Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] will fly 4 percent fewer flights. Overall, the regional partners will fly 71,701 flights for Northwest, which will be 5,280 fewer than this quarter.

Three of the five new routes that Northwest has scheduled involve seasonal cities. Out of Minneapolis, Northwest will fly to Colorado Springs; out of Detroit to Pensacola, Fla., and out of Memphis it will fly to Ft. Myers, Fla.

United Airlines has increased its regional routes by 5,557 to 133,229 RJ flights next quarter. Its newest carrier, GoJet is scheduled to fly 3,644 flights, up 64 percent from this quarter. It flies the CRJ 700. On the other hand, Air Wisconsin will only fly 5,699 flights, down 63 percent as it phases out of the United Express program. The bulk of the first quarter flights will be on its BAe 146s. Mesa, which is flying more United routes as it leaves US Airways, will fly 30,800 flights, or 28 percent more.

Unlike the other carriers, most of the new United Express routes are to business destinations, including Kansas City, New Orleans, Knoxville, Tenn., Oklahoma City and Omaha, Neb.

US Airways will be flying 117,693 RJ flights in the coming quarter, up 1,409 from this quarter. While Mesa is transitioning out of US Airways Express, it will still fly 15,876 flights next quarter, down 31 percent. Likewise, Air Wisconsin will complete its transition to the US Airways fleet and it is scheduled to fly 37,141 flights on its CRJ 200s, up 43 percent from this quarter. As US Airways shifts away from 50-seat RJs, Chautauqua and Trans States will be flying fewer routes.

The seven new city pair routes that US Airways Express will be flying all involve business destinations.

Continental Airlines [CAL] will be flying just about the same number of regional flights next quarter as it is this quarter - 115,332. It has added back flights to New Orleans from both Cleveland and Newark. In addition, it has added flights to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., from Cleveland and to Fort Myers, Fla., from Newark.

Both Chautauqua and Trans States will be flying slightly more flights for American Connection in the first quarter while America Eagle's schedule is essentially unchanged. American Airlines [AMR] has 137,054 RJ flights scheduled to use its livery next quarter. It has added only two new city pairs: Dallas to Norfolk, and New York to Madison, Wis.

>>Contacts: John Weber and Frederick Roe, BACK Aviation Solutions, (203) 752-2000.<<

Editor's Note: The same map of the United States was used as the foundation for each individual airline map on the following pages. All cities receiving new RJ service, regardless of carrier, are represented by a dot on the foundation map. On each individual airline's map, that carrier's new RJ routes are the lines linking the dots.