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Monday, July 19, 2004

Most Regionals Report Traffic Gains Over June 2003

Twelve of the 15 regional airlines releasing June traffic data reported gains in both traffic and capacity. Mesa Air Group [MESA] again dominated the good news. The carrier had the largest June-over-June increase in revenue passenger miles (81 percent), available seat miles (63 percent) and passenger enplanements (62.8 percent). US. Airways Express reported the largest improvement in load factors. (See following table and the table in CRAN, July 12, p. 7). Of the three airlines reporting slippage, Atlantic Coast Airlines [ACAI] had the largest month-over-month declines. However, its numbers can be explained by its transition from flying code-share flights to launching its own airline (see p. 1 story). Aside from Atlantic Coast, Chicago Express posted the largest slide in RPMs (-5.9 percent) and load factor (-1.1 percent). Midwest Connect had the largest drop in capacity (-9 percent) while Mesaba had the largest falloff in passenger enplanements (-2.4 percent).

Air Wisconsin recorded the highest load factor in June - 80.8 percent. Midwest Connect had the lowest load factor: 59.6 percent.

June marked the first time that Republic Airways Holdings [RJET] released traffic data. The company went public in May. The data reflects the activity of its only active airline, Chautauqua Airlines.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Final Wave (As Of July 15)
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 % Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
Air Wisconsin {United Airlines, AirTran}
RPM (miles) 256.1M 199.3M 28.5% 1.3B 1B 34.7%
ASM (miles) 316.9M 243.6M 30.1% 1.8B 1.3B 35%
Load Factor 80.8% 81.8% (1 point) 74.8% 74.9% (0.1 points)
Passengers Enplaned 627,445 504,076 24.5% 3.3M 2.7M 24.5%
Analysis: The privately held Air Wisconsin continues to fly more capacity than what the traffic warrants as its June-over-June load factor is down slightly. In three of the six months of 2004, the carrier reported a decline in its load factor. However, a load factor in excess of 80 percent is extremely high - especially for a regional carrier. Beginning next month, all of the Air Wisconsin jets will be flown for United as the AirTran contract ends.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Final Wave (As Of July 15)
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 % Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR], includes Executive Airlines)
RPM (miles) 569.4M 426.1M 33.6% 2.9B 2.2B 31.2%
ASM (miles) 786.5M 624.8M 25.9% 4.4B 3.6B 22.1%
Load Factor 72.4% 68.2% 4.2 points 66.7% 62.1% 4.6 points
Passengers Enplaned 1.5M 1.3M 21.8% 8.4B 7B 18.9%
Analysis: In June-over-June traffic reports, the pace of growth at American Eagle picked up over the postings in May. March remains the carrier's best month of 2004. The regional unit of AMR, again outpaced its mainline counterpart in all index measurements. American Airlines posted about an 8 percent growth in both traffic and capacity.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Second Wave
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 %Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
RPM (miles) 183.6M 161.5M 13.7% 855M 811.8M 5.3%
ASM (miles) 252.9M 246.7M 2.5% 1.3B 1.4B (2.4%)
Load Factor 72.6% 65.5% 7.1 points 62.5% 57.9% 4.6 points
Passengers Enplaned 512,812 525,546 (2.4%) 2.5M 2.6M (5.8%)
Analysis: After recording its best month of the year in May, growth slowed considerably at Mesaba in June compared to last June. While fewer passengers flew the carrier, the trip segments were longer, driving up the RPMs by 13 percent. The carrier, however, managed its fleet so that it posted the best improvement in load factor for the year.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Second Wave
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 %Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH])
RPM (miles) 17.9M 18.9M (5.2%) 93M 101.4M (8.3%)
ASM (miles) 30.1M 33.1M (9.2%) 174M 203.3M (14.4%)
Load Factor 59.6% 57.1% 2.5 points 53.5% 49.9% 3.6 points
Passengers (O&D) 58,058 51,495 12.7% 320,733 282,515 13.5%
RASM (cent per mile) 22.72 cents 18.77 cents 21% 20.86 cents 16.75 cents 24.5%
Revenue Yield (per mile) 37.27 cents 32.15 cents 15.9% 37.96 cents 32.77 cents 15.8%
Analysis: For the second month in a row, fewer passengers are flying Midwest Connect, according to the June-over-June traffic reports. As the traffic demands slide, the carrier has managed its fleet to increase the load factor in June. For the sixth straight month, Midwest Connect continues to grow the bottom line no matter the passenger counts.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Second Wave
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 %Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
RPM (miles) 270M 166.4M 53% 1.2B 733.1M 69%
ASM (miles) 345.5M 225.7M 62.3% 1.8B 1.1B 57.5%
Load Factor 78.2% 73.7% 4.5 points 68.5% 63.9% 4.6 points
Passengers Enplaned 596,214 414,541 43.8% 2.8M 1.9M 45.2%
Analysis: During June, Pinnacle added five more regional jets, bringing its fleet total to 101. Even as it adds planes to handle the growth in actual passengers boarding and their longer trip segments, Pinnacle continues to report sizeable month-over-month improvements in its load factor.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Second Wave
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 %Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
Republic Airways Holdings [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
RPM (miles) 260.6M 195.4M 33.4% 1.3B 951.4M 43%
ASM (miles) 358.1M 294.9M 21.4% 2B 1.5B 36.5%
Load Factor 72.8% 66.3% 6.5 points 65.4% 62.4% 3 points
Passengers Enplaned 547,350 396,701 38% 2.7M 2M 36.1%
Analysis: In its first traffic report as a pubic company, the indexes reflect an increase in the Chautauqua fleet over the last 12 months. The carrier's revenue stream is 100 percent capacity buy-fixed fee, which makes its earnings generally immune to the fluctuations in fuel and load factors, said Raymond James' analyst James Parker.

 

Regional Airline Box ScoresJune Traffic Reports - Second Wave
June trend, Year-to-date trend June 2004 June 2003 %Change YTD2004 YTD2003 %Change
SkyWest [SKYW] {Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines]
RPM (miles) 473.7M 356.5M 23.9% 2.4B 1.8B 29.9%
ASM (miles) 610.7M 469.9M 29.9% 3.4B 2.6B 27.4%
Load Factor 77.6% 75.9% 1.7 points 71.7% 70.3% 1.4 points
Passengers Enplaned 1.1M 927,680 23.9% 6M 4.8M 25%
Analysis: Analyst Parker said that the critical 27 percent capacity growth in the quarter remains on target with his estimates. Thus, he expects the carrier to earn 37 cents per share in the second quarter. SkyWest is compensated on a capacity-buy basis. ( ) Indicates corporate affiliation { } Indicates code-share partnerships Source: Company reports, Raymond James

 

 

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