The total impact of capacity cuts remain in flux as mainline carriers find opportunities in the service cuts of their competitors. In addition, low cost carriers are moving to fill some voids left by American but so far the moves are a drop in the bucket compared to the draconian measures taken by mainlines earlier this year.
United Express and US Airways Express have moved in to replace service abandoned by American Eagle, Delta and Horizon. In addition, a Puerto Rican tourism company, reacting to the dramatic cuts by American there, has enticed two low cost carriers and American to maintain connectivity to the mainland.
However, the big question remains as to whether low-cost carriers will go into dropped markets, as they have in the past, thereby limiting the impact of the capacity cuts on fares. Flights are expected to drop another 9.3 percent in November, a decline of 9.6 percent in seats, according to Boyd Group President Mike Boyd, who said the cuts will continue through next year, ending in a smaller industry overall when he predicts there will be 15 to 18 percent less capacity and correspondingly higher fares.

UA Ex Takes on Dropped Horizon Points
Using SkyWest’s 30-passenger Embraer Brasilias, United Express is moving into Horizon’s territory October 12 with new service between Portland and both Klamath Falls and North Bend, Oregon. The new service entails two roundtrips daily to each point allowing a full day’s business and an out-and-back in one day trip that built the regional airline industry. The new service takes up after Horizon ends service to Klamath Falls and North Bend on October 11. Related Story Horizon continues service to Portland from Redmond/Bend with four daily Q400 roundtrips daily. United also offers service between Portland and 11 other cities, including Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington.

US Ex Adds San Luis Obispo
US Airways Express is upgauging is two San Luis Obispo-Phoenix flights just as American Eagle drops service November 1 to the point where predecessor airline Wings West was founded. Related Story Delta also dropped its remaining service between SLO and Salt Lake, recently. Other airlines are considering new service to SLO, according to Mike Manchak, a member of the newly formed San Luis Obispo County Air Transportation Alliance, formed in reaction to the service cuts announced in June. The group is looking for service to such connecting points as Denver and Seattle.
US Airways recently announced that SLO service would be cut, a victim of the airline’s shut down of its Las Vegas operation. Then, Delta and American Eagle announced they were dropping their five total flights, which constituted a 33 percent reduction for the airport. The airline is replacing two 50 seaters that served the airport with two of Mesa’s 90-seat CRJ 900s in October and November, leaving the facility with a 17 percent shortfall in service over last year.

Puerto Rico Entices LCCs
On a day that was to mark the significant reduction of air access from the U.S. mainland to Puerto Rico and other destinations in the Caribbean, the region is celebrating the addition of new flights and the preservation of routes that were slated for cancellation, according to a local tourism organization. Through a series of negotiations and the implementation of an airline incentive program by the Puerto Rico Tourism Company (PRTC) convinced American to continue its service to Los Angeles and Baltimore, and gained JetBlue and AirTran to serve other points.
In response to the threat of losing vital routes to Puerto Rico, the PRTC, in association with the government of Puerto Rico, set out to create programs that would entice airlines to retain and increase their service to the island. PRTC also embarked on an aggressive media campaign to sustain demand for flights to Puerto Rico and remind travelers that the island is still very much accessible. In addition, a co-op marketing program created by the PRTC will match every dollar, up to $3 million, that the airline industry spends in the promotion of travel to Puerto Rico. PRTC continues its negotiations with airlines to increase seat capacity for primary markets.
JetBlue Airways added four flights to San Juan Luis Munoz Marin International Airport (SJU) from John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) at the beginning of September 2008. Additionally, they will add a fifth daily flight from SJU to JFK in November. Two additional flights (SJU - JFK) will be added in December for a total of seven extra flights. The airline is also adding two weekly flights from Boston and will boost service to daily in December and January in addition to new daily nonstops from Orlando scheduled for this fall. AirTran began service to Atlanta on March 5 and in December, it will launch Baltimore-SJU service.

Air Tran Enters Harrisburg, Columbus
Air Tran is moving into Harrisburg and Columbus, set to be abandoned or face service reductions by American Eagle, respectively. In addition to the November 20 single roundtrip Harrisburg-Orlando flight, Air Tran is adding Columbus-Atlanta where passengers can connect to 37 destinations and Columbus-Fort Myers beginning November 6.