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Monday, November 17, 2008

Embraer Posts New Forecasts

Embraer continues to see dynamic growth in its new 20-year forecast released last week calling for a 5 percent annual growth rate in the worldwide commercial aviation business between 2009 and 2028. It expects China to lead the growth with an average annual growth rate of 7.5 percent followed by emerging markets in Latin America and Russia & Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), both at 6 percent per year. Asia Pacific and Africa will grow about 5 percent, and the European and North American markets, 4 percent.

Embraer foresees a global demand of 6,750 jets with a 30- to 120-seat capacity over the next 20 years, which will generate sales of new aircraft totaling $220 billion. Of this total, 2,950 jets should be delivered between 2009 and 2018, and the remaining 3,800 units between 2019 and 2028. The forecast was released at the close of the ninth annual Embraer Day with analysts and investors, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil.

The forecast indicates that the 30- to 60-seat capacity segment will be under pressure, over the next five years, owing to fuel and the economic crisis. This will force airlines to review their strategies, mainly in the North American environment. The 50-seat regional jet market has achieved maturity, but tends to continue supporting the U.S. and European systems and to contribute to the development of regional aviation in Russia & CIS, Mexico, Africa and South America.

The jets with 61 to 120 seats should continue to help airlines match aircraft capacity to market demand, by right-sizing low-load-factor, larger, narrow-body airplanes. Embraer reiterated its projection that larger regional jets will continue to substitute for older fleets, expand into new markets, and aid the natural growth of regional airlines on high-demand routes that cannot sustain a larger narrow body aircraft. The use of larger regional jets will result in increasing revenues and market share.

Embraer believes that emissions will be an important driver in the development of future aircraft. Today, more than 700 units of the 30- to 120-seat fleet are over 20 years old and should soon be replaced, it said, adding this will result in significant environmental benefits. In this scenario, Embraer's family of E-Jets provides a reduction of as much as 50 percent in carbon dioxide emissions.

Delivery and Investments Forecast for 2009

Embraer has revised its estimated aircraft deliveries for 2009, and expects to deliver 270 jets for the commercial aviation, executive aviation and defense and government (state-owned airlines and transportation of government officials) segments. The company also released its investments forecast for 2009, totaling $450 million. On September 30, 2008, Embraer had a workforce of 23,745 employees and a firm order backlog of $21.6 billion.

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