High Fuel Prices Spur 224% Surge In 2005 Turboprop Orders

The 2005 turboprop story is not in the deliveries, but in the orders.

Last year, there were 42 turboprop aircraft delivered worldwide to 18 scheduled carriers. In 2004, there were 39 turboprops delivered to 14 carriers.

However, last year there were 172 orders placed for new turboprops compared to 53 orders placed in 2004, according to an analysis of turboprop deliveries prepared for Regional Aviation News by BACK Aviation Solutions. The 2005 order book was the largest since 1997 when there were 221 orders placed, said BACK analyst Frederick Roe.

As fuel prices kept rising last year, the sales reps at industry trade shows stressed the greater fuel economy of the turboprop over similarly sized regional jets. For example, ATR notes that its ATR-72 can make 10 trips at 300 nautical miles for the same fuel burn as a Bombardier [BBD] CRJ 700 flying six similar length trips.

While RJs are now the dominant regional aircraft in the United States, the resurgence of the turboprop is dramatic when compared to RJ orders. Last year, there were just 49 net worldwide orders for new regional jets compared to the 172 net orders for turboprops (RAN, Jan. 30).

Two major manufacturers of commercial turboprops remain: French-based ATR and Canada's Bombardier.

Bombardier delivered 18 turboprops last year - down from the 24 delivered in 2004. However, its Q400, which can carry up to 78 passengers, was the most popular aircraft of this class with 14 planes going to four airlines. In 2005, Bombardier delivered four 50-seat Q300s compared to eight in 2004. In 2004, it also sold one Q200.

Last year, ATR delivered 15 airplanes - the same number it delivered in 2004. The mix has changed. ATR in 2004 delivered eight ATR-72s compared to 10 in 2005.

China's Yunshuji delivered two Yun Y12s to Flying Dragon Airlines and two Yun Y7s to Air Zimbabwe. Russia's Antonov delivered two 52-passenger AN- 140s to Azerbaijan Airlines. Other turboprop manufacturers targeted government, corporate or individual sales, Roe said, and were not included in this analysis.

Based on the order book, Bombardier's dominance will soon lapse. ATR logged 90 new orders last year compared to 58 for Bombardier. Spain's EADS-CASA booked 23 orders last year - all to South American air forces.

The ATR-72 was the most ordered plane last year with 73 net orders.

Bombardier's Q400 recorded 49 net orders.

ATR is maintaining the sales pace. Last week it announced that India's Kingfisher Airlines decided to convert options for 15 ATR-72s into firm orders and then take another 20 options for possible future ATR-72 orders.

India is the current hot bed for turboprop activity. Last year, Air Deccan took delivery of three ATR-72s. However, it placed an order last year for 30 ATR-72s. Kingfisher placed a firm order last November for 20 ATR-72s.

Flybe, the British regional, placed the largest order last year for the Q400. It wants 24. It took delivery of four Q400s last year.

No U.S. carrier took delivery of a turboprop in 2005. In 2004, three Q400s were delivered to Horizon Air, a unit of Alaska Air [ALK]. However, last year Horizon placed an order for 12 Q400s and earlier this year it signed a deal to purchase two used Q400s from a Chinese operator.

With the many orders for ATR-72s, ATR has plans to step up its production pace beginning this year when it hopes to build 26. By 2010, ATR estimates that it will be able to build 35 planes per year.

When Bombardier announced its decision earlier this month not to develop the CSeries narrow-body jetliner, it said it would plow R&D dollars into its turboprop line. The firm held out the possibility of building a 90- to 100-seat turboprop.

However, a larger turboprop is not in the cards for ATR. The ATR-72 cannot be stretched, so a new plane would need to be designed from scratch. Part of the same extended corporate family as Airbus, the corporate focus is on large jets, not turboprops.

>>Contact: Frederick Roe, John Weber, BACK Aviation, (203) 752-2000.<<

2005 Worldwide Turboprop Activity By Month