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Monday, September 19, 2005

Boxscores: August Traffic Results

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines, US Airways}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | UP RPM (miles)
254.7M
275.9M
(7.7%)
1.98B
1.9B
4.2%
DN | UP ASM (miles)
320.1M
347.6M
(7.9%)
2.6B
2.4B
5%
UP | UP Load Factor
79.6%
79.4%
0.2 points
75.8%
76.4%
(0.6 points)
DN | UP Passengers Enplaned
630,857
681,748
(7.5%)
4.9M
4.7M
4.2%

Analysis: Air Wisconsin in August began its transition from United to US Airways. It began limited service for US Airways out of Philadelphia. It withdrew several CRJ 200s from the United fleet. The shift will continue until the end of the year. Each aircraft is out of service for about 10 days as it is repainted and the livery changed. In August, Air Wisconsin had the steepest decline in traffic and capacity thus far this year in the month-over-month reports.

American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
724.8M
580.1M
25%
5.2B
4.1B
26.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1B
846.5M
21.3%
7.5B
6.1B
22.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
69.9%
67.9%
2 points
69.8%
67.9%
2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.7M
1.5M
11.4%
13.4M
11.6M
14.9%

Analysis: In August, American Eagle picked up the pace of its growth, but it did not return to the same 28 percent pace set earlier this year for month-over-month traffic and capacity growth. American Eagle did rebound from its July growth rate, which was the second slowest in 2005.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
533M
425.7M
25.2%
3.9B
3B
27.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
720.3M
609.8M
18.1%
5.3B
4.4B
20%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.3%
70.6%
1.7 points
73.3%
67%
6.4 points

Analysis: In its last full month as a Delta subsidiary, ASA in August picked up its growth pace. On Sept. 8, SkyWest purchased ASA from Delta. Traffic and load factor growth were better than in the July month-over month report, but it has not returned to the blistering pace set earlier in the year.

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
564.6M
575.7M
(1.9%)
4.1B
402B
(2.5%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
807.8M
813.4M
(0.7%)
6B
6.2B
(2.4%)
DN | DN Load Factor
65.3%
73.7%
(8.4 points)
68.5%
71.1%
(2.6 points)

Analysis: August was the best summer month for Comair. While it is still below 2004 traffic benchmarks, Comair posted the smallest dip in traffic and capacity since March. The month-over-month trend has been improving since it hit a low point in June. Comair will take a hit in December as Delta cuts back flights to Cincinnati - Comair's hub.

Delta Connection code-share carriers {Chautauqua Airlines, SkyWest Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
337.8M
358.3M
(5.7%)
2.6B
2.7B
(1.5%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
473.3M
484.3M
(2.3%)
3.6B
3.7B
(1.9%)
DN | DN Load Factor
69.6%
80%
(10.5 points)
70.6%
76.7%
(6.1 points)

Analysis: Chautauqua and SkyWest together flew 24.5 percent of the regional RPMs compared to 27.5 percent last August. The two carriers provided 23.5 percent of the regional capacity in August compared to 25 percent last August.

Era Aviation {Alaska Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
5.4M
5.2M
3.4%
31.5M
30.6M
2.8%
UP | DN ASM (miles)
9.1M
8.3M
4.1%
58.4M
58.9M
(0.7%)
DN | UP Load Factor
58.9%
59.3%
(0.3 points)
54%
52.%
1.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
39,965
39,687
0.7%
250,056
248,388
0.6%

Analysis: July is the peak month for travel in Alaska for Era Aviation. While enplanements had a slight gain over last August, the head count dipped from July's peak which is in keeping with monthly traffic patterns. August's growth pace also did not match those in the July report.

ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
850.3M
692.2M
22.8%
5.9B
4.8B
21.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1.1B
940M
18.4%
7.9B
6.8B
16.2%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.9%
73.6%
2.8 points
74.1%
71%
3.1 points
UP | UP Block Hours
76,947
65,572
17.3%
551,586
482,803
11.6%

Analysis: ExpressJet, which is compensated by Continental based on block hours flown, expects to fly 17 to 19 percent more block hours in the third quarter compared to the same period of 2004. For the entire year, block hours are expected to grow by 13 to 15 percent. The carrier expects to handle 118,400 departures in this quarter.

Great Lakes [GLUX] {Frontier Airlines, United Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
10.5M
12.8M
(18%)
77M
90.8M
(15.2% )
DN | DN ASM (miles)
25.2M
29.4M
(14.2%)
185.9M
224M
(17%)
DN | DN Load Factor
41.8%
43.7%
(1.9 points)
41.4%
40.5%
(0.9 points)
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
40M
46.9M
(14.7%)
289,322
327,244
(11.6% )

Analysis: Although Great Lakes is flying to seven more airports with 45 more daily flights than it did last August, it continues to fly fewer passengers. Both traffic and capacity is down in the August-to-August traffic reports. The carrier is in the process of returning five Beechcraft 1900s to Raytheon due to missed lease payments. Great Lakes will fly its six Brasilias more to replace the 1900s.

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
236.3M
211.1M
11.9%
1.6B
1.4B
15.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
310M
284.2M
9.1%
2.2B
2B
9.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.2%
74.3%
1.9 points
72.5%
68.6%
3.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
608,500
576,200
5.6%
4.3M
3.8M
13.1%

Analysis: For the third month in a row, Horizon Air has settled in to an RPM growth rate of about 11 percent compared to the 22 percent posted in May. In August, the carrier matched May with the highest rate of capacity growth in 2005. Horizon will not be adding any additional aircraft during the remaining months of 2005.

Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
250M
161M
55.3%
1.4B
1.1B
31.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
347M
241M
44%
2B
1.8B
14.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
72%
66.8%
5.2 points
71.9%
62.6%
9.3 points

Analysis: Jazz beat July's high point with new records in August for growth in traffic and capacity in the month-over-month traffic reports. Introduced in May, Jazz is now flying five CRJ 705s. The carrier has ordered 15 of these 75-seat Bombardier RJs.

Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | UP RPM (miles)
172.8M
183.8M
(6%)
1.3B
1.2B
8.9%
DN | UP ASM (miles)
257.2M
270.5M
(4.9%)
2B
1.9B
6.6%
DN | UP Load Factor
67.2%
68%
(0.8 points)
66%
64.6%
1.4 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
503,772
509,886
1.5%
3.8M
3.5M
8.4%

Analysis: For the third month in a row, Mesaba is reporting a decline in traffic, capacity and load factor. In the August-over-August report, the carrier's slide moderated compared to the marks set in July. As the first CRJ 200 was delivered to Mesaba earlier this month, the carrier and Northwest finalized a new code-share agreement to cover the 15 CRJ 200s now on order. The first plane is expected to be put into service in mid-October.

Mesa Air Group [MESA]) {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
591.4M
544.4M
8.6%
4.2B
3.5B
19.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
822.4M
739.7M
11.1%
5.9B
5B
18.8%
DN | UP Load Factor
71.9%
73.5%
(1.7 points)
71.9%
71.7%
0.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.2M
1M
11.7%
8.9M
7.1M
24.9%

Analysis: Mesa in August began to pick up its growth for both traffic and capacity after posting the smallest growth marks in July over two years. The carrier added one more RJ to its fleet in August. It now has 184 airplanes.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH]) {Midwest Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
22.3M
19.2M
16.1%
160.4M
131.3M
24%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
33.3M
32.7M
1.8%
254.5M
238.4M
6.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
67.1%
58.8%
8.3 points
63%
55.1%
7.9 points
UP | UP O&D Passengers
77,403
61,702
25.4%
551,087
444,568
24%

Analysis: In August, Midwest Connect reversed the capacity slide reported in the July-over-July traffic reports. The carrier posted a slight gain in August over July for RPMs. With a 13 percent growth in August RASM, the carrier improved on its yield with only a 0.3 percent decline compared to a 5 percent drop in July.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
385.8M
283.2M
36.2%
2.7B
1.8B
51.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
526.7M
395.1M
33.3%
3.8B
2.5B
48.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
73.3%
71.7%
1.6 points
70.7%
70.2%
0.5 points
UP | UP Block Hours
38,902
29,843
30.4%
288,927
199,014
45.2%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
722,301
606,513
19.1%
5.2M
4M
29.4%

Analysis: With its fleet now complete, the pace of growth in both traffic and capacity has slowed at Pinnacle. The carrier in July took delivery of its last CRJ 200s. The carrier is now flying 139 CRJs for Northwest - its contract limit.

Republic Airways [RJET] (Chautauqua Airlines, Shuttle America, Republic Airlines) {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
381.4M
265.3M
43.8%
2.8B
1.9B
47%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
570.3M
404.6M
41%
4.1B
2.9B
39.1%
UP | UP Load Factor
66.9%
65.6%
1.3 points
69.4%
65.7%
3.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
799,254
601,831
32.8%
6M
4.3M
39.7%

Analysis: Republic Airways on Aug. 30 obtained an airworthiness certificate for Republic Airlines from the Federal Aviation Administration. Republic Airlines will begin to fly Embraer 170s for US Airways Express - the 28 Embraer 170s had been owned or leased by US Airways' MidAtlantic Airways.

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
709.95M
535.9M
32.5%
4.9B
3.5B
41.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
919.9M
693.5M
32.6%
6.5B
4.7B
37.9%
DN | UP Load Factor
77.2%
77.3%
(0.1 points)
75.4%
73.2%
2.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.4M
1.2M
15.4%
10.8M
8.5M
26.2%

Analysis: Although SkyWest added two more CRJ 700s to its fleet in August, it reported the slowest capacity growth in 2005 for any month. August also marked the last month that SkyWest would report the traffic of a single carrier as it acquired Atlantic Southeast Airlines on Sept. 8.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) (MidAtlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA)
August Trend | Year-To-Date Trend August 2005 August 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
313.1M
205.8M
52.1%
2.3B
1.1B
100.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
505.3M
320.8M
57.5%
3.7B
1.9B
90.9%
DN | UP Load Factor
62%
64.2%
(2.2 points)
63.8%
60.9%
2.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
838,048
659,032
27.2%
6.3M
4.4M
42.5%

Analysis: The pace of growth for both traffic and capacity - still the highest among the regional carriers - continues to grow at US Airways Express, but not as fast as in recent months. The holding companies for US Airways and America West remain on course to merge by Oct. 1.

Independence Air [FLYI]

August 2005 Independence August 2004 Independence Percent Change 2005 To Date Independence August 2004 FlyI 2005 To Date FlyI
UP RPM (miles)
321.6M
126.8M
153.5%
2.1B
178.6M
1.9B
UP ASM (miles)
445.5M
279M
59.7%
3B
348.1M
2.8B
UP Load Factor
72.2%
45.5%
26.7 points
69.6%
50.8%
66.4%
UP Passengers Enplaned
502,543
342,674
46.7%
3.8M
516,275
4.9M

Analysis: August 2004 was the second complete month of Independence Air, which was based entirely on CRJ routes. Early last August, Flyi finished its United contract, but was still flying for Delta Air Lines. Near bankrupt Independence Air is cutting its flights to Los Angeles and San Diego by October.

( ) Indicates corporate affiliation and operating units. { } Indicates code-share partnerships.