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Monday, October 24, 2005

Box Scores: September Traffic Report

 

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
September Trend | Year-To-Date Trend September 2005 September 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
509M
454.4M
12%
4.7B
4B
18.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
738.8M
659.7M
12%
6.6B
5.6B
18%
UP | UP Load Factor
68.89%
68.88%
.01 points
71.6%
71.4%
0.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1M
944,537
14.1%
10M
8.1M
23.7%

Analysis: As Mesa began to transition to its Oct. 1 launch of its Delta Connection service, Mesa began to pull CRJ 200s from US Airways Express. Even as it shifted aircraft, Mesa managed to increase its capacity by 11 percent for the quarter. Raymond James' Parker predicted 8 percent growth in the quarter.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH]) {Midwest Airlines}
September Trend | Year-To-Date Trend September 2005 September 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
20.4M
17.8M
14.9%
180.8M
149.1M
21.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
31.6M
30.8M
2.7%
286.1M
269.2M
6.3%
UP | UP Load Factor
64.7%
57.8%
2.7 points
63.2%
55.4%
7.8 points
UP | UP O&D Passengers
69,127
57,461
20.3%
620,214
502,029
23.5%

Analysis: Because of better than expected financial performance, primarily by Midwest Connect, Raymond James has revised its third quarter estimates - the company may lose 76 cents per share rather than 86 cents per share as earlier estimated. The carrier may benefit as Northwest cuts its Milwaukee schedule.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
September Trend | Year-To-Date Trend September 2005 September 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
359.4M
255.6M
40.6%
3B
2B
48.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
498.1M
388M
28.4%
4.3B
2.9B
45.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.1%
65.9%
6.2 points
70.8%
69.7%
1.1 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
700,009
550,412
27.2%
5.9M
4.6M
29.1%

Analysis: Pinnacle has been flying at its fleet peak of 139 CRJ 200s for Northwest since July. October will be the last month of that peak flying as Northwest has ordered 15 planes to be parked. The fleet reduction may cause a 10 percent reduction in its fourth quarter revenue.

Republic Airways [RJET] (Chautauqua Airlines, Shuttle America, Republic Airlines) {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
September Trend | Year-To-Date Trend September 2005 September 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
358.9M
232.2M
54.6%
3.2B
2.1B
47.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
552M
363.8M
51.7%
4.7B
3.3B
40.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
65%
63.8%
1.2 points
68.9%
65.5%
3.4 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
730,543
550,747
32.6%
6.7M
4.8M
39%

Analysis: With Republic Airlines now certified, it began flying Embraer 170s in September for United Express and US Airways Express. The company's Shuttle Express began flying the 170s for Delta in October. Republic continues to accept new aircraft as well as those it purchased from US Airways.

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
September Trend | Year-To-Date Trend September 2005 September 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
1B
5306.5M
104.7%
6B
4B
49.6%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1.4B
679.2M
108.6%
8B
5.4B
46.7%
DN | UP Load Factor
73.2%
74.6%
(1.4 points)
75%
73.6%
1.4 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
2.1M
1.2M
75.3%
12.9M
9.8M
32.4%

Analysis: SkyWest is now reporting a consolidated traffic report for SkyWest Airlines and the 23 days in September it has operated Atlantic Southeast Airlines (ASA). It did not break out separate numbers for SkyWest Airlines. The company has increased its order of CRJ 700s by four. It now has 22 of the larger RJs on order.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [LCC]) (MidAtlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA)
September Trend | Year-To-Date Trend September 2005 September 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
271.6M
184.6M
47.1%
2.6B
1.3B
93%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
467.1M
324.3M
44%
4.1B
2.2B
84.2%
UP | UP Load Factor
58.2%
56.9%
1.3 points
63.2%
60.3%
2.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
742,103
580,263
27.9%
7.1M
5M
40.8%

Analysis: US Airways and America West completed their merger in late September as US Airways exited its second bankruptcy proceeding. While controlled by America West executives, the holding company adopted the US Airways moniker. The two carriers maintain separate operations. The company continues to issue traffic reports for US Airways Express' in- house units, but not America West Express, which is flown exclusively by Mesa.

( ) Indicates corporate affiliation and operating units. { } indicates code-share partnerships.

Sources: Company reports, Raymond James

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