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Monday, April 18, 2005

Box Scores: March Traffic Results

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH]) {Midwest Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
20.2M
16M
26.7%
54.4M
42M
29.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
33.3M
30.2M
10.6%
94M
85.3M
10.3%
UP | UP Load Factor
60.8%
53%
7.8 points
57.8%
49.3%
8.5 points
UP | UP O&D Passengers
70,468
57,145
23.3%
186,734
150,911
23.7%
UP | UP RASM (cents)
22.2 cents
21.2 cents
4.6%
20.3 cents
19.45 cents
4.7%
DN | DN Revenue Yield (cents)
35.4 cents
38.8 cents
(8.6%)
34.2 cents
38.2 cents
(10.6%)

Analysis: Midwest Connect continues to increase its capacity and improve its load factors in the month-over-month traffic report with the same fleet. It has been shifting more flying from its turboprops to the Dornier 328Jets. Its revenue yield is down more than 10 percent for the year due to a 35 percent hike in fuel prices. Raymond James analyst James Parker predicts that Midwest Air Group will lose 88 cents per share in the first quarter.

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
627.4M
419.1M
49.7%
1.6B
1.1B
40.35%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
824.6M
576.6M
43%
2.2B
1.6B
33.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.1%
72.7%
3.4 points
73.2%
69.8%
3.4 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.4M
1M
36.3%
3.7M
2.8M
29%

Analysis: After posting its best back-to-back, month-over-month traffic growth reports in January and February, SkyWest in March surpassed all traffic growth benchmarks it had established in the last 15 months. SkyWest grew both traffic and capacity even as it began to transition out of its Continental Connection contract. In March, SkyWest began a three-month hand-over of the turboprop service out of Houston to Colgan Air. SkyWest's year-over-year capacity growth of 34 percent was ahead of the Raymond James forecast for 31 percent growth for the quarter. The brokerage had earlier revised downward the capacity growth from 36 percent to 31 percent because bad weather in January hampered SkyWest's operations.

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Sources: Company reports, Raymond James