Monday, April 11, 2005
Box Scores: March Traffic Results
| Air Wisconsin {United Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
264.1M
|
242.3M
|
9%
|
684.1M
|
614.3M
|
11.4%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
352.5M
|
313.1M
|
12.6%
|
968.2M
|
866.2M
|
11.8%
|
| DN | DN Load Factor |
74.9%
|
77.4%
|
(2.5 points)
|
70.7%
|
70.9%
|
(0.2 points)
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
651,010
|
628,487
|
3.6%
|
1.7M
|
1.6M
|
6.1%
|
Analysis: Traffic began to rebound for Air Wisconsin in March. In February it set a 14-month record for slowest growth. While growth has picked up slightly for traffic and capacity, Air Wisconsin posted an even steeper decline in its load factor than the February mark.
| American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
647.4M
|
503.6M
|
28.6%
|
1.6B
|
1.3B
|
26.4%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
927.9M
|
742.7M
|
24.9%
|
2.5B
|
2.1B
|
22.9%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
69.8%
|
67.8%
|
2 points
|
65.3%
|
63.5%
|
1.8 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
1.7M
|
1.4M
|
18.3%
|
4.5M
|
3.8M
|
16.4%
|
Analysis: American Eagle in its March-over-March report has returned to the same growth pace that it recorded in January and the later months of 2004. March reversed the February numbers which were the lowest in the last 14 months.
| Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Llines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
517.6M
|
376.6M
|
37.4%
|
1.3B
|
1B
|
31.5%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
686.4 M
|
558.2M
|
23%
|
1.8B
|
1.6B
|
17.1%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
76%
|
64.3%
|
11.8 points
|
62.7%
|
59.9%
|
2.9 points
|
Analysis: Since the Jan. 31 schedule change took effect for Delta, ASA has set new traffic growth benchmarks. In its March-over-March report, ASA broke the growth pace set in July, which was the high point of 2004. But growth within Delta is lopsided as Comair saw a drop in business.
| Chicago Express (Unit of ATA Holdings [ATAHQ]) {ATA Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| DN | DN RPM (miles) |
5.6M
|
17.6M
|
(67.9%)
|
19.2M
|
46.5M
|
(58.7%)
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
10.1M
|
27.8M
|
(63.6%)
|
36.1M
|
78M
|
(53.6%)
|
| DN | DN Load Factor |
55.9%
|
63.3%
|
(7.4 points)
|
53.1%
|
59.6%
|
(6.5 points)
|
| DN | DN Passengers Enplaned |
32,066
|
99,401
|
(67.7%)
|
111,698
|
261,862
|
(57.3%)
|
Analysis: March was the last month of operations for Chicago Express under ATAH's ownership. The regional carrier closed on March 28. It has been sold an investment group that has yet to put the airline back into operation.
| Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Llines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| DN | DN RPM (miles) |
544.8M
|
548.9M
|
(0.7%)
|
1.4B
|
1.4B
|
(1.0)
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
772.9M
|
789M
|
(2%)
|
2.26B
|
2.27B
|
(2.9%)
|
| DN | UP Load Factor |
74.9%
|
75.4%
|
(0.6 points)
|
67.9%
|
65.7%
|
2.2 points
|
Analysis: Business is stablizing at Comair. In February, the first month of the new Delta schedule, Comair averaged a 5 percent drop in both traffic and capacity. In March, it continues to lose traffic and capacity compared to 2004 but at a much smaller rate.
| Era Aviation {Alaska Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| DN | DN RPM (miles) |
3.3M
|
3.4M
|
(2.5%)
|
9M
|
9.2M
|
(2.2%)
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
6.5M
|
6.9M
|
(5.9%)
|
18M
|
19.7M
|
(8.7%)
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
51.7%
|
49.7%
|
2 points
|
49.9%
|
46.6%
|
3.2 points
|
| DN | DN Passengers Enplaned |
27,601
|
28,216
|
(2.1%)
|
75,291
|
77,818
|
(3.2%)
|
Analysis: Anchorage-based Era Aviation removed two Convair 580s from its fleet on Jan. 1, which accounted for the drop in traffic and capacity.
| ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
746M
|
584.8M
|
27.6%
|
1.9B
|
1.5B
|
26.7%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
1B
|
862.4M
|
16.5%
|
2.7B
|
2.3B
|
14.2%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
74.2%
|
67.8%
|
6.4 points
|
71.3%
|
64.2%
|
7.1 points
|
| UP | UP Block Hours |
70,094
|
60,726
|
15.4%
|
191,275
|
169,101
|
13.1%
|
Analysis: ExpressJet's 15 percent growth in block hours recorded in the March-over-March report exceeds by about 1 percent the estimate prepared by James Parker of Raymond James. Based on its first quarter performance, Parker is holding firm on his first quarter earnings estimate for ExpressJet at 40 cents per share.
| Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
204.8M
|
177.5M
|
15.4%
|
539M
|
450M
|
19.8%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
280M
|
265.3M
|
5.5%
|
782.2M
|
692.1M
|
13%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
73.1%
|
66.9%
|
6.2 points
|
68.9%
|
65%
|
3.9 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
550,600
|
485,100
|
13.5%
|
1.4M
|
1.2M
|
11.9%
|
Analysis: As Horizon Air adjusts its capacity to a 12 percent annual growth rate, it reduced its capacity in March. In February, Horizon was on track to grow at 17 percent. The capacity was reduced in March even as traffic grew, which yielded its best load factor growth in 2005..
| Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
161M
|
144M
|
11.8%
|
449M
|
390M
|
15.1%
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
226M
|
233M
|
(3%)
|
643M
|
666M
|
(3.5%)
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
71.2%
|
61.8%
|
9.4 points
|
69.8%
|
58.6%
|
11.2 points
|
Analysis: Even as Jetsgo suddenly shut down in early March, Jazz did not apprently benefit from less competition. It grew traffic at a slower rate than in January or February. As it continues to adjust capacity to improve load factors, the results were mixed. It did not record as much load factor growth while at the same time, it reduced its capacity by a smaller margin than in January and February.
| Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
181.6M
|
144.3M
|
25.8%
|
475.4M
|
375.1M
|
26.7%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
265.1M
|
225.3M
|
17.7%
|
756.6M
|
652.8M
|
15.9%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
68.5%
|
64.1%
|
4.4 points
|
62.8%
|
57.5%
|
5.3 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
510,308
|
436,672
|
16.9%
|
1.3M
|
1.1M
|
17.1%
|
Analysis: The March-over-March comparision at Mesaba is still skewed by last year's events. In March 2004, Mesaba was flying 35 Avro RJ85s compared to 40 last month.
| Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
536.6M
|
424.5M
|
26.4%
|
1.3B
|
1B
|
31.3%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
740.7M
|
597.3M
|
24%
|
2B
|
1.6B
|
26.8%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
72.4%
|
71%
|
1.3 points
|
68.3%
|
65.9%
|
2.3 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
1.1M
|
842,942
|
37.5%
|
3M
|
2.1M
|
38.8%
|
Analysis: Mesa's key traffic measurement is its capacity growth. With a 26.8 percent growth in capacity for the quarter, it does not appear likely that Mesa will meet the 29 percent benchmark predicted by analyst James Parker.
| Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
328.5M
|
208.7M
|
57.4%
|
817.6M
|
513M
|
59.4%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
468.7M
|
297.7M
|
57.4%
|
1.2B
|
818.6M
|
57.4%
|
| - | UP Load Factor |
70.1%
|
70.1%
|
0 points
|
63.5%
|
62.7%
|
0.8 points
|
| UP | UP Block Hours |
35,677
|
23,152
|
54.1%
|
100,143
|
64,769
|
54.6%
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
657,498
|
488,680
|
34.5%
|
1.6M
|
1.2M
|
35.8%
|
Analysis: As Pinnacle placed three more CRJ 200s into its fleet during March, the March traffic report remains consistent with the near 60 percent month-over-month growth in traffic and capacity as recorded in much of this year and 2004. It now has 123 44-seat RJs in its fleet.
| Republic Airways [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
364.6M
|
234.4M
|
55.7%
|
941.5M
|
614.1M
|
53.3%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
500.4M
|
355.3M
|
40.9%
|
1.4B
|
1B
|
38.4%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
72.9%
|
66%
|
6.9 points
|
67%
|
60.4%
|
6.6 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
740,815
|
472,629
|
56.7%
|
1.9M
|
1.2M
|
56%
|
Analysis: In March, Republic continued to grow traffic and capacity at a rate similar to what it posted in both January and February.
| US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {Midatlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | March 2005 | March 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
319M
|
120.1M
|
165.7%
|
733.2M
|
302.1M
|
142.7%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
480.6M
|
211.3M
|
127.4%
|
1.2B
|
590,378M
|
110.7%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
66.4%
|
56.8%
|
9.6 points
|
58.9%
|
51.2%
|
7.8 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
849,900
|
517,417
|
64.3%
|
2M
|
1.3M
|
52.6%
|
Analysis: The month-over-month traffic reports for the three in-house regional units of US Airways Express continue to paint a picture of more and more regional flying at the bankrupt carrier. Traffic increased by 165 percent in March for the regional units while growing by 12 percent for the mainline. The average regional trip is now 375 miles, up 61 percentt from March 2004. The March trip length is also up 25 miles from the average February trip length.
| Independence Air [FLYI] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February Trend | March 2005 | Year-To-Date 2005 | February 2005 | January 2005 | December 2004 | November 2004 |
| UP RPM (miles) |
255.9M
|
578.4M
|
174.8M
|
147.6M
|
189.8M
|
183M
|
| UP ASM (miles) |
361.8M
|
963.2M
|
277.9M
|
323.4M
|
347.1M
|
352.2M
|
| UP Load Factor |
70.7%
|
60.1%
|
62.9%
|
45.7%
|
54.7%
|
52%
|
| UP Passengers Enplaned |
515,611
|
1.2M
|
399,436
|
361,414
|
478,653
|
477,424
|
Analysis: In March, Independence Air hit 70.7 percent as its average load factor - a benchmark that six other regional carriers, including American Eagle and Pinnacle, failed to match. However, while the load factor achievement for the quarter was higher than the 59.2 percent predicted by analyst James Parker, the carrier's traffic and capacity numbers were below his estimates. Parker is holding to his estimate that the carrier will post a $1.31 per share net loss for the quarter. He also believes that Independence Air's yield remains weak because of low fares. Bottom line: Parker still sees bankruptcy as a possibility before the year's end.
( ) Indicates corporate affiliation. { } indicates code-share partnerships.

Join us on: Twitter AVProNet