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Monday, April 11, 2005

Box Scores: March Traffic Results

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
264.1M
242.3M
9%
684.1M
614.3M
11.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
352.5M
313.1M
12.6%
968.2M
866.2M
11.8%
DN | DN Load Factor
74.9%
77.4%
(2.5 points)
70.7%
70.9%
(0.2 points)
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
651,010
628,487
3.6%
1.7M
1.6M
6.1%

Analysis: Traffic began to rebound for Air Wisconsin in March. In February it set a 14-month record for slowest growth. While growth has picked up slightly for traffic and capacity, Air Wisconsin posted an even steeper decline in its load factor than the February mark.

American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
647.4M
503.6M
28.6%
1.6B
1.3B
26.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
927.9M
742.7M
24.9%
2.5B
2.1B
22.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
69.8%
67.8%
2 points
65.3%
63.5%
1.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.7M
1.4M
18.3%
4.5M
3.8M
16.4%

Analysis: American Eagle in its March-over-March report has returned to the same growth pace that it recorded in January and the later months of 2004. March reversed the February numbers which were the lowest in the last 14 months.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Llines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
517.6M
376.6M
37.4%
1.3B
1B
31.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
686.4 M
558.2M
23%
1.8B
1.6B
17.1%
UP | UP Load Factor
76%
64.3%
11.8 points
62.7%
59.9%
2.9 points

Analysis: Since the Jan. 31 schedule change took effect for Delta, ASA has set new traffic growth benchmarks. In its March-over-March report, ASA broke the growth pace set in July, which was the high point of 2004. But growth within Delta is lopsided as Comair saw a drop in business.

Chicago Express (Unit of ATA Holdings [ATAHQ]) {ATA Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
5.6M
17.6M
(67.9%)
19.2M
46.5M
(58.7%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
10.1M
27.8M
(63.6%)
36.1M
78M
(53.6%)
DN | DN Load Factor
55.9%
63.3%
(7.4 points)
53.1%
59.6%
(6.5 points)
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
32,066
99,401
(67.7%)
111,698
261,862
(57.3%)

Analysis: March was the last month of operations for Chicago Express under ATAH's ownership. The regional carrier closed on March 28. It has been sold an investment group that has yet to put the airline back into operation.

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Llines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
544.8M
548.9M
(0.7%)
1.4B
1.4B
(1.0)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
772.9M
789M
(2%)
2.26B
2.27B
(2.9%)
DN | UP Load Factor
74.9%
75.4%
(0.6 points)
67.9%
65.7%
2.2 points

Analysis: Business is stablizing at Comair. In February, the first month of the new Delta schedule, Comair averaged a 5 percent drop in both traffic and capacity. In March, it continues to lose traffic and capacity compared to 2004 but at a much smaller rate.

Era Aviation {Alaska Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
3.3M
3.4M
(2.5%)
9M
9.2M
(2.2%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
6.5M
6.9M
(5.9%)
18M
19.7M
(8.7%)
UP | UP Load Factor
51.7%
49.7%
2 points
49.9%
46.6%
3.2 points
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
27,601
28,216
(2.1%)
75,291
77,818
(3.2%)

Analysis: Anchorage-based Era Aviation removed two Convair 580s from its fleet on Jan. 1, which accounted for the drop in traffic and capacity.

ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
746M
584.8M
27.6%
1.9B
1.5B
26.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1B
862.4M
16.5%
2.7B
2.3B
14.2%
UP | UP Load Factor
74.2%
67.8%
6.4 points
71.3%
64.2%
7.1 points
UP | UP Block Hours
70,094
60,726
15.4%
191,275
169,101
13.1%

Analysis: ExpressJet's 15 percent growth in block hours recorded in the March-over-March report exceeds by about 1 percent the estimate prepared by James Parker of Raymond James. Based on its first quarter performance, Parker is holding firm on his first quarter earnings estimate for ExpressJet at 40 cents per share.

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
204.8M
177.5M
15.4%
539M
450M
19.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
280M
265.3M
5.5%
782.2M
692.1M
13%
UP | UP Load Factor
73.1%
66.9%
6.2 points
68.9%
65%
3.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
550,600
485,100
13.5%
1.4M
1.2M
11.9%

Analysis: As Horizon Air adjusts its capacity to a 12 percent annual growth rate, it reduced its capacity in March. In February, Horizon was on track to grow at 17 percent. The capacity was reduced in March even as traffic grew, which yielded its best load factor growth in 2005..

Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
161M
144M
11.8%
449M
390M
15.1%
DN | DN ASM (miles)
226M
233M
(3%)
643M
666M
(3.5%)
UP | UP Load Factor
71.2%
61.8%
9.4 points
69.8%
58.6%
11.2 points

Analysis: Even as Jetsgo suddenly shut down in early March, Jazz did not apprently benefit from less competition. It grew traffic at a slower rate than in January or February. As it continues to adjust capacity to improve load factors, the results were mixed. It did not record as much load factor growth while at the same time, it reduced its capacity by a smaller margin than in January and February.

Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
181.6M
144.3M
25.8%
475.4M
375.1M
26.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
265.1M
225.3M
17.7%
756.6M
652.8M
15.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
68.5%
64.1%
4.4 points
62.8%
57.5%
5.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
510,308
436,672
16.9%
1.3M
1.1M
17.1%

Analysis: The March-over-March comparision at Mesaba is still skewed by last year's events. In March 2004, Mesaba was flying 35 Avro RJ85s compared to 40 last month.

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
536.6M
424.5M
26.4%
1.3B
1B
31.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
740.7M
597.3M
24%
2B
1.6B
26.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.4%
71%
1.3 points
68.3%
65.9%
2.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.1M
842,942
37.5%
3M
2.1M
38.8%

Analysis: Mesa's key traffic measurement is its capacity growth. With a 26.8 percent growth in capacity for the quarter, it does not appear likely that Mesa will meet the 29 percent benchmark predicted by analyst James Parker.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
328.5M
208.7M
57.4%
817.6M
513M
59.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
468.7M
297.7M
57.4%
1.2B
818.6M
57.4%
- | UP Load Factor
70.1%
70.1%
0 points
63.5%
62.7%
0.8 points
UP | UP Block Hours
35,677
23,152
54.1%
100,143
64,769
54.6%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
657,498
488,680
34.5%
1.6M
1.2M
35.8%

Analysis: As Pinnacle placed three more CRJ 200s into its fleet during March, the March traffic report remains consistent with the near 60 percent month-over-month growth in traffic and capacity as recorded in much of this year and 2004. It now has 123 44-seat RJs in its fleet.

Republic Airways [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
364.6M
234.4M
55.7%
941.5M
614.1M
53.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
500.4M
355.3M
40.9%
1.4B
1B
38.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.9%
66%
6.9 points
67%
60.4%
6.6 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
740,815
472,629
56.7%
1.9M
1.2M
56%

Analysis: In March, Republic continued to grow traffic and capacity at a rate similar to what it posted in both January and February.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {Midatlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2005 March 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
319M
120.1M
165.7%
733.2M
302.1M
142.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
480.6M
211.3M
127.4%
1.2B
590,378M
110.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
66.4%
56.8%
9.6 points
58.9%
51.2%
7.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
849,900
517,417
64.3%
2M
1.3M
52.6%

Analysis: The month-over-month traffic reports for the three in-house regional units of US Airways Express continue to paint a picture of more and more regional flying at the bankrupt carrier. Traffic increased by 165 percent in March for the regional units while growing by 12 percent for the mainline. The average regional trip is now 375 miles, up 61 percentt from March 2004. The March trip length is also up 25 miles from the average February trip length.

Independence Air [FLYI]
February Trend March 2005 Year-To-Date 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004
UP RPM (miles)
255.9M
578.4M
174.8M
147.6M
189.8M
183M
UP ASM (miles)
361.8M
963.2M
277.9M
323.4M
347.1M
352.2M
UP Load Factor
70.7%
60.1%
62.9%
45.7%
54.7%
52%
UP Passengers Enplaned
515,611
1.2M
399,436
361,414
478,653
477,424

Analysis: In March, Independence Air hit 70.7 percent as its average load factor - a benchmark that six other regional carriers, including American Eagle and Pinnacle, failed to match. However, while the load factor achievement for the quarter was higher than the 59.2 percent predicted by analyst James Parker, the carrier's traffic and capacity numbers were below his estimates. Parker is holding to his estimate that the carrier will post a $1.31 per share net loss for the quarter. He also believes that Independence Air's yield remains weak because of low fares. Bottom line: Parker still sees bankruptcy as a possibility before the year's end.

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