-T / T / +T | Comment(s)

Monday, April 17, 2006

Box Scores: March Traffic Reports

American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2006 March 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
1.01B
928.0M
15.7%
2.05B
1.69B
21.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1.01B
928M
9.0%
2.93B
2.59B
12.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
74.1%
69.8%
4.3 points
70.1%
65.3%
4.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.78M
1.71M
4.1%
4.90M
4.52M
8.4%

Analysis: In March, American Eagle posted healthy year-over-year growth in traffic, capacity and load factor. The largest U.S. regional also experienced solid growth in traffic, capacity and load factor over February 2006.

Comair1 (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DALQ]) {Delta Air Lines} 1 Figures are for domestic flying
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2006 March 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
434.2M
543.1M
(20.1%)
1.17B
1.41B
(16.8%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
581.7M
770.7M
(24.5%)
1.64B
2.19B
(23.8%)
UP | UP Load Factor
74.6%
60.5%
4.1 points
60.1%
64.2%
5.9%

Analysis: Comair in March suffered traffic and capacity slips year-over-year but posted a 4.1-point gain in load factor. In comparison to the figures posted for February 2006, however, it has reported healthy improvements in all three sectors. Delta's bankruptcy continues to weigh heavily. Flights through Cincinnati, Comair's home base, have been cut back.

Delta Connection code-share carriers1 {ASA, Chautauqua Airlines, SkyWest Airlines, Shuttle America, Freedom Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2006 March 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
-- | -- RPM (miles)
1.02B
362.6M
NM%
2.67B
948.9M
NM%
-- | -- ASM (miles)
1.24B
486M
NM%
3.42B
1.32B
NM%
UP | UP Load Factor
82.2%
76.1%
6.1 points
78.1%
71.6%
6.5 points

Analysis: In March, Delta Connection partners continue to log more miles for Delta because its partners, particularly Shuttle America and Freedom Airlines, have been flying more routes since October. Its performance over February 2006 continued to see marked improvements in all factors.

ExpressJet [XJT] {Continental Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2006 March 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
891.0M
746.0M
19.4%
2.3B
1.9B
18.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1.1B
1.0B
14.4%
3.0B
2.7B
12.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
77.5%
74.2%
3.3 points
75.2%
71.3%
3.9 points
UP | UP Block Hours
80,103
70,094
14.3%
214,192
191,276
12.0%

Analysis: ExpressJet's traffic and capacity continue to significantly increase for its Continental Express fleet year-over-year and over the February period. Continental pays the regional for completed block hours. In February, ExpressJet took delivery of one 50-seat Embraer ERJ 145XR, bringing its total operating fleet to 270 jets.

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2006 March 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
234.3M
205.4M
14.1%
620.4M
539.6M
15.0%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
309.6M
280M
10.6%
877.4M
782.1M
12.2%
UP | UP Load Factor
75.7%
73.4%
2.3 points
70.7%
69.0%
1.7 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
598,600
551,800
8.4%
1,594,300
1,474,900
8.9%

Analysis: Horizon posted solid jumps in RPMs, ASMs, load factor and enplanements from the year-ago period. It also posted significant gains over its February 2006 performance. Horizon has been flying as a code-share for Frontier Airlines for two years now.

Jazz (Unit of ACE Aviation Holdings [ACE]) {Air Canada}
March Trend | Year-To-Date Trend March 2006 March 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
304M
161M
88.8%
828M
449M
84.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
417M
226M
84.5%
1.17B
643M
82.6%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.9%
71.2%
1.7 points
70.5%
69.8%
0.7 points

Analysis: Jazz's remarkable growth in both the year-ago period and from February 2006 continues. The airline benefits from Air Canada's growth which saw record load factors for the 24th consecutive month. The major carrier cited its new business model centered on simplified fare structure, product innovations, a strong economy and strong customer service for its success.

Mesa Air Group [MESA] {America West Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2006 February 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
609.6M
536.6M
13.59%
1.59B
1.41B
12.59%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
783.5M
740.7MM
5.78%
2.17B
1.98B
9.90%
UP | UP Load Factor
77.80%
72.45%
5.4points
73.1%
71.44%
1.7 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.3B
1.1B
13.35%
3.4M
3.0M
12.39%

Analysis: Mesa's traffic and capacity jumped from the figures posted in February 2006, just as it did from the March 2005 period. The airline continues to curtail its US Airways Express flying in favor of continuing its America West contract and devoting more aircraft to Delta and United.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2006 February 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
356.4M
328.5M
8.5%
971.8M
817.6M
18.9%
DN | UP ASM (miles)
465.3M
468.7M
(0.7%)
1.34B
1.28BM
4.1%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.6%
70.1%
6.5 points
72.4%
63.5%
8.9 points
DN | UP Block Hours
35,455
35,677
(0.6%)
102,597
100,143
2.5%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
745,635
657,498
13.4%
2.01B
1.66B
20.8%

Analysis: Flying as Northwest Airlink, Pinnacle is managing to perform well despite slight dips in year-over-year capacity and block hours as planes returned to their lessors. However, growth in RPMs, load factor and enplanements, remain strong as well as from the February 2006.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [LCC]) (MidAtlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA)
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2006 February 2005 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2006 Year-To-Date 2005 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
278.1M
319.0M
(12.8%)
734.7M
733.2M
0.200
DN | UP ASM (miles)
383.1M
480.6M
(20.3%)
1.14B
1.24B
(7.8%)
UP | UP Load Factor
72.6%
66.4%
6.2 points
64%
58.9%
5.1 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
836,296
849,900
(1.6%)
2.19B
2.02B
8.3%

Analysis: US Airways Express' in-house carriers' capacity growth has slowed down for several months in a row now, following expansive growth. In February, ASMs were actually down 8 percent year-over-year. The code-share operations of US Airways Express and America West Express are not reported. ( ) Indicates corporate affiliation and operating units. { } indicates code-share partnerships. Sources: Company reports