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Monday, July 18, 2005

Box Scores: June Traffic Results

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
269M
256.1M
5%
1.4B
1.3B
8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
330M
316.9M
4.2%
1.9B
1.8B
7%
UP | DN Load Factor
81.5%
80.8%
0.7 points
74%
74.8%
(0.8 points)
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
658,365
627,445
4.9%
3.6M
3.3M
6.8%

Analysis: Air Wisconsin in June posted its slowest capacity growth rate in 2005 as measured by available seat miles (ASMs). At the same time the carrier's traffic growth in June, measured by revenue passenger miles (RPMs), was slightly better than April's 3.5 percent growth rate - the slowest growth rate in 2005 for that key index. For the first time since January, Air Wisconsin had the first positive growth in load factor.

American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
732.8M
569.5M
28.7%
3.7B
2.9B
27.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
973.1M
786.6M
23.7%
5.4B
5.4B
23.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
74.3%
72.4%
2.9 points
68.9%
66.7%
2.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.8M
1.5M
15.4%
9.8M
8.4M
16.4%

Analysis: In its June-over-June traffic report, American Eagle fell back into the growth pattern it set for much of 2004 and the early months of 2005. May remains the carrier's high point for the year on all key traffic indexes. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), AMR estimates that both American Eagle and its American Connection partners flew 3.2 million ASMs in the second quarter and the carriers are expected to fly 12.9 million ASMs in 2005. These same carriers flew 2.3 million RPMs in the second quarter and should fly 8.9 million RPMs this year.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
529.5M
422.3M
25.4%
2.8B
2.1B
30%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
692.1M
558.2M
24%
3.9B
3.2B
20.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
74.8%
74.3 %
0.5 points
71.1%
64.7%
6.4 points

Analysis: While Atlantic Southeast (ASA) has maintained a consistent capacity growth rate in the month-over-month traffic reports, the Delta unit in June had its slowest growth in traffic for the year. Its fractionally better load factor in June-over-June is in sharp contrast to the double-digit improvement posted in the May report. Ray Neidl, an analyst with Calyon Securities, continues to predict a fall bankruptcy filing for Delta due to high fuel prices - unless it sells ASA and Comair.

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
544M
580.6M
(6.3%)
3.01B
3.09B
(2.6 %)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
760.4M
779.7M
(2.5%)
4.5B
4.6B
(2.7%)
DN | DN Load Factor
71.7%
75.3 %
(3.6 points)
68.5%
68.7%
(0.2 points)

Analysis: In June, Comair had its largest drop in traffic growth since the weather-and-computer-induced meltdown in December. The 2.5 percent fall in capacity in June was the second lowest mark for the year - exceeded only by the 4.5 percent decline recorded in February.

Delta Connection code-share carriers {Chautauqua Airlines, SkyWest Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | UP RPM (miles)
349M
356M
(2%)
1.9B
1.2B
56.5%
DN | DN ASM (miles)
459M
461.2 M
(0.5%)
2.7B
2.7B
(1.5%)
DN | DN Load Factor
69.2%
82.5%
(13.3 points)
71.4%
74.9%
(3.5 points)

Analysis: Delta is giving its code-share partners less flying to do this year compared to last June. Chautauqua and SkyWest together flew 24.5 percent of the regional RPMs compared to 26.1 percent last June. The two carriers provided 23.8 percent of the regional capacity in June compared to 25.6 percent last June.

ExpressJet [XJT]) {Continental Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
806.2M
680.3M
18.5%
4.1B
3.4B
21.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
1B
883.3M
19%
5.7B
5B
15.3%
DN | UP Load Factor
76.7%
77%
(0.3 points)
72.8%
68.9%
3.9 points
UP | UP Block Hours
71,696
63,091
13.6%
398,728
353,156
12.9%

Analysis: ExpressJet's near 14 percent growth in block hours is on target, according to estimates prepared by James Parker of Raymond James. ExpressJet accepted delivery in June of two additional ERJ 145XRs, which brings the carrier's fleet to 256 regional jets.

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
221.3M
199.1M
11.1%
1.1B
984.6M
17.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
290.4M
272.8M
6.4%
1.6B
1.4B
9.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.2%
73%
3.2 points
71%
66.3%
4.7 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
576,400
533,600
8%
3.1M
2.7M
14.8%

Analysis: Horizon Air posted its lowest growth rate of 2005 in RPMs in its June-over-June traffic report. In an SEC filing after it released the June traffic report, Alaska Air Group predicts that capacity for the year will grow by 6.9 percent - a rate considerably slower than the current rate of 9.9 percent. Horizon will not be adding any additional aircraft during the remaining months of 2005.

Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
214M
156M
37.2%
1B
820M
22.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
285M
230M
23.9%
1.4B
1.3B
4.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
75.1%
67.8%
7.3 points
71.6%
61.1%
10.5 points

Analysis: In June, Jazz doubled its capacity growth over what it posted in May as it put two new CRJ 705s into service. The carrier has ordered 15 of these 75-seat Bombardier RJs. The 37 percent growth in traffic was the largest month-over-month gain in 2005.

Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | UP RPM (miles)
177.3M
183.6M
(3.5%)
990.2M
855.3M
15.8%
DN | UP ASM (miles)
248.8M
252.9M
(1.6%)
1.5B
1.3B
11.3%
DN | UP Load Factor
71.3%
72.6%
(1.3 points)
65%
62.5%
2.5 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
529,290
512,812
3.2%
2.8M
2.5M
11.8%

Analysis: Now that fallout of Mesaba's near-strike in January 2004 is fully flushed from the month-over-month traffic reports, the carrier is in a no growth mode. It reported its first traffic and capacity decline in 2005. The carrier is gearing up for the arrival for its first CRJ 200s later this year.

Mesa Air Group [MESA]) {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
585.1M
523.4M
11.8%
3B
2.4B
24.6%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
787.2M
679M
15.9%
4.3B
3.5B
22.4%
DN | UP Load Factor
74.3%
77%
(2.8 points)
71.3%
70.1%
1.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.2M
1M
17.6%
6.5M
4.9M
31.1%

Analysis: In its most recently completed fiscal quarter, capacity grew by 24 percent at Mesa, which is 2 percent more than what had been projected by analyst James Parker. Mesa has not announced when it will shift 59 RJs from US Airways to United and Delta.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH]) {Midwest Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
21.4M
17.9M
19.5%
116M
93M
24.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
31.7M
30.1M
5.3%
189.7M
174M
9%
UP | UP Load Factor
67.7%
59.6%
8.1 points
61.2%
53.5%
7.7 points
UP | UP O&D Passengers
73,246
58,058
26.2%
397,411
320,733
23.9%

Analysis: While Midwest Connect improved its load factor by 8.1 points, its revenue yield was down 0.6 percent compared to last June. Its financial performance was better than its sister carrier, Midwest Airlines, which recorded a 2.7 percent decline in yield.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL] {Northwest Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
393.2M
270M
45.6%
1.9B
1.2B
53.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
504.8M
345.5M
46.1%
2.7B
1.8B
53.3%
DN | DN Load Factor
77.9%
78.2%
(0.3 points)
68.7%
68.5%
(0.2 points)
UP | UP Block Hours
38,000
26,541
43.2%
210,444
140,435
49.9%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
749,756
596,214
25.8%
3.7M
2.8M
32.7%

Analysis: Even as Pinnacle accepted three more CRJ 200s in June, it recorded its slowest growth rate in 2005 as both traffic and capacity growth fell below 50 percent for the first time this year. However, Pinnacle was still the second fast growing regional carrier. Only US Airways Express grew faster.

Republic Airways [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
391.4M
271.9M
43.9%
2B
1.4B
47.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
536.6M
376.4M
42.6%
3B
2.1B
37.6%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.9%
72.2%
0.7 points
69.4%
64.9%
4.5 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
803,362
615,109
30.6%
4.3M
3.1M
41.3%

Analysis: In June, Shuttle America began flying Embraer 170s as part of Republic's United Express code-share partnership. Acquired by Republic in May, Shuttle America will continue to fly its Saab 340s until the end of the year. Chautauqua, another Republic unit, will continue to fly the 70-seat RJs until these planes and pilots are all transferred to Shuttle America.

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
685.8M
473.7M
44.8%
3.5B
2.4B
44.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
869.4M
610.7M
42.4%
4.7B
3.4B
39.3%
UP | UP Load Factor
78.9%
77.6%
1.3 points
74.3%
71.7%
2.6 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.4M
1.1M
26.8%
7.8M
6M
30.3%

Analysis: June marked the end of the code-share agreement SkyWest had with Continental Airlines as the regional carrier completed a three-month transition in handing over the Embraer 120 routes to Colgan Air. In June, SkyWest accepted four new CRJ 700s, which it began flying as part of its United Express contract.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {MidAtlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA}
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
341.7M
183.2M
86.4%
1.7B
786.7M
118.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
488.4M
271.1M
80.1%
2.7B
1.3B
101.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
70%
67.5%
2.4 points
63.1%
58.2%
4.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
898,451
656,407
36.9%
4.6M
3.1M
46.5%
UP | UP Average Trip (miles)
380.4
279.2
36.2%
369.7
248.1
49%

Analysis: For the first time in 2005, US Airways Express did not post triple-digit traffic growth. However, while the three company-owned regional units collectively increased their traffic by 86 percent, the RPMs at the mainline dropped by 0.1 percent. In June, US Airways agreed to sell MidAtlantic to Republic Airways. The deal includes all of the Embraer 170s that MidAtlantic have been flying. The planes will still be part of the US Airways Express fleet.

Independence Air [FLYI]
June Trend | Year-To-Date Trend June 2005 June 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP RPM (miles)
332.2M
898.5M
1.4B
311.7M
254.6M
255.9M
UP ASM (miles)
436M
1.2B
2.2B
427.4M
371M
361.8M
UP Load Factor
76.2%
72.6%
67.1%
72.9%
68.9%
70.7%
UP Passengers Enplaned
436,079
1.5M
2.8M
535,262
507,986
515,611

Analysis: Although Independence Air posted a 76.2 percent load factor - 6.2 points higher than predicted - analyst James Parker still believes the carrier will run out of cash in the third quarter and file for Chapter 11 protection. The higher occupancy rates are being driven in part by fare sales that don't cover higher fuel prices. To keep filling the planes, Independence Air has extended a cut-rate ticket sale from Independence Day weekend to the end of September.

( ) Indicates corporate affiliation. { } indicates code-share partnerships.

Sources: Company reports, Calyon Securities, Raymond James