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Monday, March 14, 2005

Box Scores: February Traffic Reports

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
210.4M
195.1M
7.9%
420M
371.9M
12.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
304.9M
279.4M
9.1%
615.6M
553M
11.3%
UP | UP Load Factor
69%
69.8%
(0.8 points)
68.2%
67.3%
0.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
532,826
520,119
2.4%
1M
997,799
7.7%

Analysis: The growth rate at Air Wisconsin continues to decline. The February-over-February traffic reports reflect a slower growth rate than it experienced in any month of 2004 or in January 2005. Air Wisconsin only provides capacity to United, which was the only legacy carrier to report less traffic in February.

American Eagle (Unit of AMR [AMR]) {American Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
527M
434M
21.4%
1B
838.9M
25.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
820.3M
679.4M
20.7%
1.6B
1.3B
21.8%
UP | UP Load Factor
64.3%
63.9%
0.4 points
62.8%
61.1%
1.7 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.4M
1.2M
12.2%
2.8M
2.4M
15.3%

Analysis: The near 20 percent growth rate in both traffic and capacity at American Eagle in February was the slowest month-over-month increase since its January 2004 report. Executive Airlines, ARM's Caribbean unit and part of the consolidated American Eagle report, has reduced its traffic and capacity by about 8 percent in February.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Llines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
422.5M
315.7M
33.8%
802.1M
627.4M
27.8%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
603.5M
507.8M
18.8%
1.1B
1B
14%
UP | UP Load Factor
71.9%
60.9%
11.3 points
67.3%
59.6%
7.7 points

Analysis: Delta's new schedule took effect on Jan. 31 which included a shift of RJ and mainline flying and the closing of the Dallas hub. Delta shifted ASA to Atlanta and Salt Lake City as well as more point-to-point flying. ASA and Delta now fly 1,000 daily flights out of Atlanta.

Chicago Express (Unit of ATA Holdings [ATAHQ]) {ATA Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
5.9M
15.2M
(61.1%)
13.5M
28.8M
(53.1%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
10.5M
25M
(58.2%)
26M
50.1M
(48.1%)
DN | DN Load Factor
56.5%
60.9%
(4.4 points)
52%
57.5%
(5.5 points)
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
33,883
86,306
(60.7%)
79,632
162,461
(51%)

Analysis: As its countdown to shutdown progresses, Chicago Express is now operating primarily in Indiana. A February-to-February comparison of its routes and traffic is difficult since so little of the flight schedule of February 2004 remains. The carrier is to close on March 28 unless it is sold.

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Llines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
433.6M
458.4M
(5.4%)
873.1M
890.2M
(1.9%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
703.8M
736.9M
(4.5%)
1.43B
1.48B
(3.3)%
DN | UP Load Factor
64.5%
66%
(1.5 points)
65.2%
60.7%
5 points

Analysis: With Delta's massive schedule change that took place on Jan. 31, Comair is again focused on flying the bulk of its flights out of Cincinnati. It ended service to Dallas and shifted Atlanta and Salt Lake City flights to ASA.

Era Aviation {Alaska Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
2M
2.9M
(30.4%)
4.8M
5.7M
(15.4%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
4.1M
6.5M
(36.3%)
10.1M
12.8M
(20.9%)
UP | UP Load Factor
49.2%
45.1%
4.1 points
48.1%
45%
3.1 points
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
17,064
24,919
(31.5%)
41,454
49,602
(16.4%)

Analysis: Anchorage-based Era Aviation removed two Convair 580s from its fleet on Jan. 1st., which accounted for the drop in traffic and capacity. The weather was more severe this year than last which also impacted the intra-Alaskan flights. However, once its turboprops were back in the air, the load factors improved as grounded passengers filled the planes.

ExpressJet [XJT]) {Continental Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
595M
486.6M
21.1%
1.2B
956.6M
26.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
840.1M
770.1M
9.1%
1.7B
1.5B
13%
UP | UP Load Factor
70.1%
63.2%
6.9 points
69.5%
62.2%
7.3 points
UP | UP Block Hours
58,782
54,101
8.7%
121,182
108,375
11.8%

Analysis: ExpressJet's near 9 percent growth in block hours is on target, according to estimates prepared by James Parker of Raymond James. In February, ExpressJet exceeded the on-time performance benchmark set by Continental, thus making it eligible for a bonus..

Great Lakes Aviation [GLUX]) {Frontier Airlines, United Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
8.6M
10.2M
(15.8%)
17.8M
20.9M
(14.7%)
UP | UP ASM (miles)
20.5M
27.5M
(25.2%)
42.1M
56.4M
(25.4%)
UP | UP Load Factor
42%
37.8%
4.7 points
42.3%
37%
4.4 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
32,175
36,976
(13%)
66,233
74,898
(11.6%)

Analysis: Traffic at Great Lakes continues to remain below 2004 levels because the carrier is flying to eight fewer cities. However, the numbers will begin to turn around in March as three new routes are to be picked up this month. Two more routes will be added in April. In the second quarter, Great Lakes will begin flying to the Arizona cities of Prescott, Kingman and Show Low..

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
163.2M
144.5M
12.9%
334.2M
272.5M
22.6%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
242.2M
223.2M
8.5%
502.1M
426.8M
17.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
67.4%
64.8%
2.6 points
66.6%
63.9%
2.7 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
449,800
410,200
9.6%
953,200
782,200
21.8%

Analysis: Horizon Air posted its lowest growth rate in both traffic and capacity in more than a year of month-over-month traffic reports. Horizon's capacity is projected to growth by 12 percent this year as it accepts the last of its new CRJ 700s..

Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
144M
126M
14.3%
288M
245M
17.6%
DN | DN ASM (miles)
202M
212M
(4.7%)
417M
432M
(3.5%)
UP | UP Load Factor
71.3%
59.4%
11.9 points
69.1%
56.7%
12.4 points

Analysis: After a strong January, Jazz's month-over-month growth in February slowed slightly. The next major growth spurt should be in the spring as Air Canada begins to shift CRJ 200s from the mainline to Jazz.

Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
146.1M
117.8M
24.1%
293.8M
230.7M
27.3%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
238M
211.1M
12.7%
491.4M
427.5M
15%
UP | UP Load Factor
61.4%
55.8%
5.6 points
59.8%
54%
5.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
410,417
361,334
13.6%
823,202
702,143
17.2%

Analysis: The dramatic growth in the February-to-February comparison of Mesaba's traffic reports continues to be skewed by the January 2004 near-strike by the pilots. Northwest had pulled some RJ flying from Mesaba in anticipation of the strike and it had not returned the planes in February 2004.

Mesa Air Group [MESA]) {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
427.5M
330.4M
29.4%
879.3M
637.5M
37.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
596.2M
502M
18.8%
1.2B
1B
22.6%
UP | UP Load Factor
71.7%
65.8%
5.9 points
70.8%
62.9%
7.9 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
930,526
690,082
34.8%
1.9M
1.3M
43.3%

Analysis: Mesa's key traffic measurement is its capacity growth. With a 22.6 percent two-month growth in capacity, it does not appear likely that Mesa will meet the 29 percent benchmark predicted by analyst James Parker.

Midwest Connect (Unit of Midwest Air Group [MEH]) {Midwest Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
17.4M
13.2M
31.5%
34.1M
26M
31.1%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
29.6M
27.3M
8.4%
60.9M
55M
10.2%
UP | UP Load Factor
58.7%
48.4%
10.3 points
56.2%
47.2%
9 points
UP | UP O&D Passengers
59,624
47,938
24.4%
116,266
93,766
24%

Analysis: Operating with the same fleet for all of 2004, Midwest Connect broke all recent records with its February-to-February traffic reports. While the carrier has announced plans to increase its capacity by 6 percent in the first quarter, it is now at 10 percent for the quarter-to-date.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL]) {Northwest Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
249.2M
157.4M
58.4%
489M
304.3M
60.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
402.8M
260.4M
54.7%
819.7M
520.9M
57.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
61.9%
60.4%
1.5 points
59.7%
58.4%
1.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
514,102
382,184
34.5%
1M
740,313
36.6%

Analysis: Pinnacle accepted one more CRJ 200 in February as it continues to grow its fleet from 120 to 139 planes. February's traffic report remains consistent with the near 60 percent month-over-month growth in traffic and capacity recorded in much of 2004. In light of potential growth in the company's stock, JP Morgan recently upgraded its recommendation from "neutral" to "overweight" in its advice to investors.

Republic Airways [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
289.9M
195M
48.7%
576.9M
379.7M
51.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
442.1M
323M
36.9%
905.5M
660.8M
37%
UP | UP Load Factor
65.6%
60.4%
5.2 points
63.7%
57.5%
6.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
596,870
396,918
50.4%
1.1M
767,978
55.5%

Analysis: In February, Republic added one more Embraer 170s to its fleet. It now has 16 70-seat RJs. Republic continues to grow traffic and capacity at a rate similar to what it posted in the January-over-January report..

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
502.1M
374.1M
34.2%
1B
744.5M
35%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
694M
530.7M
30.8%
1.4B
1B
28.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.4%
70.5%
1.9 points
71.5%
68.3%
3.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.1M
936,401
23.4%
2.3M
1.8M
24.9%

Analysis: While January was the month of dramatic growth as SkyWest accepted 11 new CRJ 700s, it maintains a traffic and capacity growth pattern in February similar to what was set in January. February also marks the last full month of operating nine Embraer 120s on the Continental Connection network. In March, SkyWest begins a three-month hand- over of the service to Colgan Air.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {Midatlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA}
February Trend | Year-To-Date Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
214.8M
98.6M
117.8%
414.1M
182M
127.6%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
390.6M
191.3M
104.1%
763.3M
379M
101.4%
UP | UP Load Factor
55%
51.5%
3.5 points
54.3%
48%
6.2 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
611,565
434,498
40.8%
1.1M
811,285
45.2%

Analysis: After posting in January a 139 percent growth in traffic, the in-house regional units of US Airways Express settled into a now familiar 117 percent month-over- month growth in traffic. The shift in flying at US Airways from mainline jets to the regional units is apparent because the mainline flew fewer domestic RPMs and ASMs in February than it did a year ago. Furthermore, the average stage length for a regional flight grew by 56 percent to 351 miles.

Independence Air [FLYI])
February Trend February 2005 February 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP RPM (miles)
174.8M
322.5M
147.6M
18.3%
189.8M
183M
DN ASM (miles)
277.9M
601.4M
323.4M
(14.2%)
347.1M
352.2M
UP Load Factor
62.9%
53.6%
45.7%
17.2 points
54.7%
52%
UP Passengers Enplaned
399,436
760,850
361,414
10.5%
478,653
477,424

Analysis: After months of trying and predicting, Independence Air is finally achieved the load factors it had been seeking for months. At 62.9 percent, its load factor is higher than seven of the 18 airlines reporting February results. Independence achieved the improved performance by cutting flights by its RJ fleet and adding more Airbus flights to Florida. In early February, Independence had predicted a 55 percent load factor for February. As part of its restructuring program outlined last month, the carrier will further reduce its RJ routes in the coming as its CRJ 200 fleet will be reduced to 58. It began the carrier with 83 RJs.