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Monday, May 23, 2005

Box Scores: April Traffic Results

Air Wisconsin {United Airlines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
250.6M
242.1M
3.5%
934.8M
856.4M
9.2%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
334.3M
318.1M
5.1%
1.3B
1.1B
10%
DN | DN Load Factor
75%
76.1%
(1.1 points)
71.8%
72.3%
(0.5 points)
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
610,628
570,578
7%
2.3M
2.1M
6.4%

Analysis: In retrospect, February may have marked the beginning of the end of the Air Wisconsin-United relationship. For the third month in a row, Air Wisconsin's month- over-month traffic report indicates little growth over last year. In April, Air Wisconsin had minimal traffic and capacity growth over April 2004 - the slowest growth rate yet in the three-month slide. The two carriers earlier this year announced a one-year transition out of their code-share pact.

Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
488.7M
373.2M
30.9%
1.8B
1.3B
31.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
674.5M
546.1M
23.5%
2.5B
2.1B
18.7%
UP | UP Load Factor
76.4%
66.2%
10.2 points
69.1%
62.6%
6.5 points

Analysis: In April, ASA maintained its record-setting growth rate for capacity and load factor that was first set in the March-over-March traffic report.

Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
523.6M
531.4M
(1.4%)
1.9B
1.9B
(1%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
761.1M
775.6M
(1.8%)
2.9B
3B
(2.64%)
DN | UP Load Factor
69.6%
71.4%
(1.7 points)
68.3%
67%
1.3 points

Analysis: Now in the third month of Delta's new fare and route structure, Comair continues to lose traffic and capacity from the pace that was set in 2004.

Great Lakes Aviation {Frontier Airlines, United Airlines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
DN | DN RPM (miles)
8.3M
9.8M
(15.1%)
36.4M
42.5M
(14.2%)
DN | DN ASM (miles)
21.6M
9.8M
(15.5%)
87.8M
111.5M
(21.5%)
UP | UP Load Factor
38.4%
38.2%
0.2 points
41.5%
38.1%
3.4 points
DN | DN Passengers Enplaned
31,110
25,660
(11.5%)
135,733
151,726
(10.5%)
UP | UP RASM
23.52 cents
20.97?
12.2%
23.93
23.43
17.1%

Analysis: Great Lakes in April continued to serve three fewer communities than it did in 2004. In addition, an April 10 snowstorm in Denver caused a number of cancellations. In May, it will add service to one new Arizona community and in June it will add two more Arizona markets.

Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
186.7M
162.7M
14.8%
726.3M
612.7M
18.5%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
267.6M
253.9M
5.4%
1B
946M
11%
UP | UP Load Factor
69.8%
64.1%
5.7 points
69.2%
64.8%
4.4 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
504,500
447,800
12.8%
1.9M
1.7M
11.7%

Analysis: As Horizon Air adjusts its capacity to a 12 percent annual growth rate, it continued to reduce its capacity in April.

Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
158M
135M
17%
607M
525M
15.6%
DN | DN ASM (miles)
224M
221M
(3%)
867M
887M
(2.3%)
UP | UP Load Factor
70.5%
61.1%
9.4 points
70%
59.2%
10.8 points

Analysis: Jazz increased its traffic in the April-over-April traffic report at the same time it continued to reduce its capacity.

Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
161.2M
142.8M
12.9%
636.7M
517.9M
22.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
253.5M
226M
12.1%
1B
878.8M
14.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
63.6%
63.2%
0.4 points
63%
58.9%
4.1 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
474,454
425,940
11.4%
1.8M
1.5M
15.5%

Analysis: In April 2004, business was pretty much back to normal at Mesaba after January 2004's near strike. Consequently, the rate of traffic and capacity growth in the April-to-April comparison has slowed to 12 percent.

Mesa Air Group [MESA]) {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
521.9M
430.4M
21.25%
1.9B
1.4B
28.4%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
750.5M
599.6M
25.1%
2.7B
2.2B
26.3%
DN | UP Load Factor
69.5%
71.7%
(2.3 points)
68.6%
67.5%
1.1 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.1M
877,532
26.5%
4.1M
3M
35.2%

Analysis: In the month-over-month traffic reports, both traffic and capacity growth slowed slightly in April compared to previous months this year.

Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL]) {Northwest Airlines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
331M
219.4M
50.9%
1.1B
732.5M
56%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
477M
313.2M
52.3%
1.7B
1.1B
56%
DN | UP Load Factor
69.4%
70.1%
(0.7 points)
65.1%
64.7%
0.4 points
UP | UP Block Hours
35,289
23,462
50.4%
135,432
88,231
53.5%
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
648,964
493,323
31.5%
2.3M
1.7M
34.6%

Analysis: Pinnacle accepted seven more CRJ 200s in April, which caused the slight drop in the average load factor even as traffic grew by more than 50 percent compared to last April.

Republic Airways [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
354.3M
240M
47.6%
1.2B
854.1M
51.7%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
489.7M
348.3M
40.6%
1.8B
1.3B
38.9%
UP | UP Load Factor
72.4%
66.9%
3.5 points
68.4%
62.6%
5.8 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
713,134
488,693
45.9%
2.6M
1.7M
53.2%

Analysis: April marked the last month that Republic traffic reports will consist only of Chautauqua's activity. In May, Republic took over Shuttle America and its turboprop operations. While capacity growth was maintained in April, traffic growth slipped slightly behind the pace set in March.

SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Continental Airlines}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
598.2M
397.2M
50.6%
2.2B
1.5B
42.9%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
813.8M
562.5M
44.7%
3B
2.2B
36.5%
UP | UP Load Factor
73.5%
70.6%
2.9 points
73.3%
70%
3.3 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
1.3M
981,791
34.1%
5M
3.8M
30.3%

Analysis: SkyWest's year-over-year capacity grew at a rate faster than what analyst James Parker of Raymond James had anticipated. He thought capacity would have grown at a 40 percent rate. The traffic growth is what had been anticipated.

US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {Midatlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA}
April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend April 2005 April 2004 Percent Change Year-To-Date 2005 Year-To-Date 2004 Percent Change
UP | UP RPM (miles)
313.6M
139.6M
124.7%
1B
441.7M
137%
UP | UP ASM (miles)
486.4M
228.9M
112.5%
1.7B
819.3M
111.2%
UP | UP Load Factor
64.5%
61%
3.5 points
60.5%
53.9%
6.6 points
UP | UP Passengers Enplaned
843,431
570,701
47.8%
2.8M
1.8M
51.2%

Analysis: The blistering 165 percent March-over-March traffic growth slowed slightly in April to 127 percent. The average regional trip is now 371 miles, up 52 percent from April 2004.

Independence Air [FLYI]
April Trend April 2005 Year-To-Date 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004
UP RPM (miles)
254.6M
833.1M
255.9M
174.8M
147.6M
189.8M
UP ASM (miles)
371M
1.3B
361.8M
277.9M
323.4M
347.1M
UP Load Factor
68.6%
62.4%
70.7%
62.9%
45.7%
54.7%
UP Passengers Enplaned
507,986
1.7M
515,611
399,436
361,414
478,653

Analysis: The April load factor benchmark for Independence Air, at 68.6 percent, was just 0.9 points off the mark set in April by Mesa. While its load factor has improved, its yields have not. Independence continues to charge fares far below its operating costs.

AirNet Systems [ANS]
First Quarter Trend First Quarter March 31, 2005 First Quarter March 31, 2004 Percent Change
UP Bank Services Sales
$27.2M
$25.8M
5.4%
UP Express Services Sales
$13.1M
$10.7M
22.4%
UP Passenger Charter Sales
$9.3M
$3.6
155.5%
UP Total Sales
$49.8M
$40.4M
23.2%
UP Total Expenses
$46M
$39.5M
16.4%
UP Net Income
$1.5M
$316,000
400%
UP Net Income Per Share
15 cents
0.03 cents
400%

Analysis: AirNet for the first time in three quarters reported a net income without deductions for accounting charges. AirNet has stated that it anticipates a reduction in its bank services sales as more financial institutions use digital means to transfer canceled checks rather than its courier services. AirNet's troubled bank services division attributed much of its revenue hike to the imposition of fuel surcharges. Its controversial passenger charter unit reported a 155 percent increase in sales. A group of shareholders upset with the charter business is mounting a drive to replace the board.

Embraer [ERJ]
First Quarter Trend First Quarter March 31, 2005 First Quarter March 31, 2004 Percent Change
UP Commercial Sales
$578.2M
$443.2M
30.4%
DN Defense Sales
$78.8M
$130.7M
(39.7%)
UP Business Jet Sales
$33.1M
$0
100%
UP Total Sales
$763.3M
$626.2M
21.8%
UP Cost of Sales
$495.2M
$424.1M
16.7%
DN Net Income
$95.5M
$103.3M
(7.5%)
DN Net Income Per Share
12.5 cents
13.4 cents
(6.7%)

Analysis: Embraer's net income decreased 6 percent even as total sales increased. Income from operations fell to $124.5 million, down from $153 million last year. The decline was attributed to lower payments from its clients on the Embraer 170 and 190 than it received in the year-ago quarter. Embraer delivered two ERJ 135s, 16 ERJ 145s and 10 Embraer 170s in the first quarter. Embraer reported it had 1,255 firm orders and a backlog of 383 planes as of March 31.

( ) Indicates corporate affiliation. { } indicates code-share partnerships.

Sources: Company reports, Raymond James