Monday, May 23, 2005
Box Scores: April Traffic Results
| Air Wisconsin {United Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
250.6M
|
242.1M
|
3.5%
|
934.8M
|
856.4M
|
9.2%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
334.3M
|
318.1M
|
5.1%
|
1.3B
|
1.1B
|
10%
|
| DN | DN Load Factor |
75%
|
76.1%
|
(1.1 points)
|
71.8%
|
72.3%
|
(0.5 points)
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
610,628
|
570,578
|
7%
|
2.3M
|
2.1M
|
6.4%
|
Analysis: In retrospect, February may have marked the beginning of the end of the Air Wisconsin-United relationship. For the third month in a row, Air Wisconsin's month- over-month traffic report indicates little growth over last year. In April, Air Wisconsin had minimal traffic and capacity growth over April 2004 - the slowest growth rate yet in the three-month slide. The two carriers earlier this year announced a one-year transition out of their code-share pact.
| Atlantic Southeast Airlines (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
488.7M
|
373.2M
|
30.9%
|
1.8B
|
1.3B
|
31.4%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
674.5M
|
546.1M
|
23.5%
|
2.5B
|
2.1B
|
18.7%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
76.4%
|
66.2%
|
10.2 points
|
69.1%
|
62.6%
|
6.5 points
|
Analysis: In April, ASA maintained its record-setting growth rate for capacity and load factor that was first set in the March-over-March traffic report.
| Comair (Unit of Delta Air Lines [DAL]) {Delta Air Lines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| DN | DN RPM (miles) |
523.6M
|
531.4M
|
(1.4%)
|
1.9B
|
1.9B
|
(1%)
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
761.1M
|
775.6M
|
(1.8%)
|
2.9B
|
3B
|
(2.64%)
|
| DN | UP Load Factor |
69.6%
|
71.4%
|
(1.7 points)
|
68.3%
|
67%
|
1.3 points
|
Analysis: Now in the third month of Delta's new fare and route structure, Comair continues to lose traffic and capacity from the pace that was set in 2004.
| Great Lakes Aviation {Frontier Airlines, United Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| DN | DN RPM (miles) |
8.3M
|
9.8M
|
(15.1%)
|
36.4M
|
42.5M
|
(14.2%)
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
21.6M
|
9.8M
|
(15.5%)
|
87.8M
|
111.5M
|
(21.5%)
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
38.4%
|
38.2%
|
0.2 points
|
41.5%
|
38.1%
|
3.4 points
|
| DN | DN Passengers Enplaned |
31,110
|
25,660
|
(11.5%)
|
135,733
|
151,726
|
(10.5%)
|
| UP | UP RASM |
23.52 cents
|
20.97?
|
12.2%
|
23.93
|
23.43
|
17.1%
|
Analysis: Great Lakes in April continued to serve three fewer communities than it did in 2004. In addition, an April 10 snowstorm in Denver caused a number of cancellations. In May, it will add service to one new Arizona community and in June it will add two more Arizona markets.
| Horizon Air (Unit of Alaska Air Group [ALK]) {Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
186.7M
|
162.7M
|
14.8%
|
726.3M
|
612.7M
|
18.5%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
267.6M
|
253.9M
|
5.4%
|
1B
|
946M
|
11%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
69.8%
|
64.1%
|
5.7 points
|
69.2%
|
64.8%
|
4.4 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
504,500
|
447,800
|
12.8%
|
1.9M
|
1.7M
|
11.7%
|
Analysis: As Horizon Air adjusts its capacity to a 12 percent annual growth rate, it continued to reduce its capacity in April.
| Jazz (Unit of Air Canada [ACE]) {Air Canada} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
158M
|
135M
|
17%
|
607M
|
525M
|
15.6%
|
| DN | DN ASM (miles) |
224M
|
221M
|
(3%)
|
867M
|
887M
|
(2.3%)
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
70.5%
|
61.1%
|
9.4 points
|
70%
|
59.2%
|
10.8 points
|
Analysis: Jazz increased its traffic in the April-over-April traffic report at the same time it continued to reduce its capacity.
| Mesaba Aviation (Unit of MAIR Holdings [MAIR]) {Northwest Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
161.2M
|
142.8M
|
12.9%
|
636.7M
|
517.9M
|
22.9%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
253.5M
|
226M
|
12.1%
|
1B
|
878.8M
|
14.9%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
63.6%
|
63.2%
|
0.4 points
|
63%
|
58.9%
|
4.1 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
474,454
|
425,940
|
11.4%
|
1.8M
|
1.5M
|
15.5%
|
Analysis: In April 2004, business was pretty much back to normal at Mesaba after January 2004's near strike. Consequently, the rate of traffic and capacity growth in the April-to-April comparison has slowed to 12 percent.
| Mesa Air Group [MESA]) {America West Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
521.9M
|
430.4M
|
21.25%
|
1.9B
|
1.4B
|
28.4%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
750.5M
|
599.6M
|
25.1%
|
2.7B
|
2.2B
|
26.3%
|
| DN | UP Load Factor |
69.5%
|
71.7%
|
(2.3 points)
|
68.6%
|
67.5%
|
1.1 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
1.1M
|
877,532
|
26.5%
|
4.1M
|
3M
|
35.2%
|
Analysis: In the month-over-month traffic reports, both traffic and capacity growth slowed slightly in April compared to previous months this year.
| Pinnacle Airlines [PNCL]) {Northwest Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
331M
|
219.4M
|
50.9%
|
1.1B
|
732.5M
|
56%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
477M
|
313.2M
|
52.3%
|
1.7B
|
1.1B
|
56%
|
| DN | UP Load Factor |
69.4%
|
70.1%
|
(0.7 points)
|
65.1%
|
64.7%
|
0.4 points
|
| UP | UP Block Hours |
35,289
|
23,462
|
50.4%
|
135,432
|
88,231
|
53.5%
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
648,964
|
493,323
|
31.5%
|
2.3M
|
1.7M
|
34.6%
|
Analysis: Pinnacle accepted seven more CRJ 200s in April, which caused the slight drop in the average load factor even as traffic grew by more than 50 percent compared to last April.
| Republic Airways [RJET] {American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, US Airways} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
354.3M
|
240M
|
47.6%
|
1.2B
|
854.1M
|
51.7%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
489.7M
|
348.3M
|
40.6%
|
1.8B
|
1.3B
|
38.9%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
72.4%
|
66.9%
|
3.5 points
|
68.4%
|
62.6%
|
5.8 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
713,134
|
488,693
|
45.9%
|
2.6M
|
1.7M
|
53.2%
|
Analysis: April marked the last month that Republic traffic reports will consist only of Chautauqua's activity. In May, Republic took over Shuttle America and its turboprop operations. While capacity growth was maintained in April, traffic growth slipped slightly behind the pace set in March.
| SkyWest Airlines [SKYW] {Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Continental Airlines} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
598.2M
|
397.2M
|
50.6%
|
2.2B
|
1.5B
|
42.9%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
813.8M
|
562.5M
|
44.7%
|
3B
|
2.2B
|
36.5%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
73.5%
|
70.6%
|
2.9 points
|
73.3%
|
70%
|
3.3 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
1.3M
|
981,791
|
34.1%
|
5M
|
3.8M
|
30.3%
|
Analysis: SkyWest's year-over-year capacity grew at a rate faster than what analyst James Parker of Raymond James had anticipated. He thought capacity would have grown at a 40 percent rate. The traffic growth is what had been anticipated.
| US Airways Express (Unit of US Airways [UAIRQ]) {Midatlantic Airlines, Piedmont Airlines, PSA} | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | Year-To-Date Trend | April 2005 | April 2004 | Percent Change | Year-To-Date 2005 | Year-To-Date 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP | UP RPM (miles) |
313.6M
|
139.6M
|
124.7%
|
1B
|
441.7M
|
137%
|
| UP | UP ASM (miles) |
486.4M
|
228.9M
|
112.5%
|
1.7B
|
819.3M
|
111.2%
|
| UP | UP Load Factor |
64.5%
|
61%
|
3.5 points
|
60.5%
|
53.9%
|
6.6 points
|
| UP | UP Passengers Enplaned |
843,431
|
570,701
|
47.8%
|
2.8M
|
1.8M
|
51.2%
|
Analysis: The blistering 165 percent March-over-March traffic growth slowed slightly in April to 127 percent. The average regional trip is now 371 miles, up 52 percent from April 2004.
| Independence Air [FLYI] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Trend | April 2005 | Year-To-Date 2005 | March 2005 | February 2005 | January 2005 | December 2004 |
| UP RPM (miles) |
254.6M
|
833.1M
|
255.9M
|
174.8M
|
147.6M
|
189.8M
|
| UP ASM (miles) |
371M
|
1.3B
|
361.8M
|
277.9M
|
323.4M
|
347.1M
|
| UP Load Factor |
68.6%
|
62.4%
|
70.7%
|
62.9%
|
45.7%
|
54.7%
|
| UP Passengers Enplaned |
507,986
|
1.7M
|
515,611
|
399,436
|
361,414
|
478,653
|
Analysis: The April load factor benchmark for Independence Air, at 68.6 percent, was just 0.9 points off the mark set in April by Mesa. While its load factor has improved, its yields have not. Independence continues to charge fares far below its operating costs.
| AirNet Systems [ANS] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| First Quarter Trend | First Quarter March 31, 2005 | First Quarter March 31, 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP Bank Services Sales |
$27.2M
|
$25.8M
|
5.4%
|
| UP Express Services Sales |
$13.1M
|
$10.7M
|
22.4%
|
| UP Passenger Charter Sales |
$9.3M
|
$3.6
|
155.5%
|
| UP Total Sales |
$49.8M
|
$40.4M
|
23.2%
|
| UP Total Expenses |
$46M
|
$39.5M
|
16.4%
|
| UP Net Income |
$1.5M
|
$316,000
|
400%
|
| UP Net Income Per Share |
15 cents
|
0.03 cents
|
400%
|
Analysis: AirNet for the first time in three quarters reported a net income without deductions for accounting charges. AirNet has stated that it anticipates a reduction in its bank services sales as more financial institutions use digital means to transfer canceled checks rather than its courier services. AirNet's troubled bank services division attributed much of its revenue hike to the imposition of fuel surcharges. Its controversial passenger charter unit reported a 155 percent increase in sales. A group of shareholders upset with the charter business is mounting a drive to replace the board.
| Embraer [ERJ] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| First Quarter Trend | First Quarter March 31, 2005 | First Quarter March 31, 2004 | Percent Change |
| UP Commercial Sales |
$578.2M
|
$443.2M
|
30.4%
|
| DN Defense Sales |
$78.8M
|
$130.7M
|
(39.7%)
|
| UP Business Jet Sales |
$33.1M
|
$0
|
100%
|
| UP Total Sales |
$763.3M
|
$626.2M
|
21.8%
|
| UP Cost of Sales |
$495.2M
|
$424.1M
|
16.7%
|
| DN Net Income |
$95.5M
|
$103.3M
|
(7.5%)
|
| DN Net Income Per Share |
12.5 cents
|
13.4 cents
|
(6.7%)
|
Analysis: Embraer's net income decreased 6 percent even as total sales increased. Income from operations fell to $124.5 million, down from $153 million last year. The decline was attributed to lower payments from its clients on the Embraer 170 and 190 than it received in the year-ago quarter. Embraer delivered two ERJ 135s, 16 ERJ 145s and 10 Embraer 170s in the first quarter. Embraer reported it had 1,255 firm orders and a backlog of 383 planes as of March 31.
( ) Indicates corporate affiliation. { } indicates code-share partnerships.
Sources: Company reports, Raymond James

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